Pardon me for no weekend recap Bits yesterday. Also, trying out a new format of separating the SPs.
Business As Usual: Nothing actionable
Michael Kopech, Carlos Rodón, Noah Syndergaard (season-high 7 Ks, they’re comin’!), Julio Urías, Nestor Cortes (>80% at Y!, ESPN; he’s on another level now)
Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention
Paul Blackburn didn’t get many swings-and-misses (7 in 88 pitches) but handled the inept Detroit Tigers offense with 6.7 scoreless. A 58% GB rate lessened the need for whiffs and his velo has stayed up, although a bit down from his early season surge.
I was nervous about the Kyle Hendricks 2-step, namely the San Diego leg of it because of how volatile he has been this year. The tough part is ever feeling confident to put him back in the lineup after a good start. He has allowed 6 ER after his last two gems.
Just when Ranger Suárez was starting to appear on shallow league wires, he drops his first real gem of the season. He looked like the 2021 iteration in SEA, being stretched to 104 pitches and logging more Ks (7) than he did in his last two starts combined (6). Now he goes to LAD, though, so maybe reserving him is the play if you scoop him off the wire, though SD next week isn’t great, either.
Tyler Wells had a third straight solid outing, his first quality start of the season. We could see more Ks as he settles into the rotation role and that could start this weekend with a trip to DET on the docket for the latter part of his 2-step.
José Quintana is elevating himself into standard streamer, though I don’t know anyone brave (dumb?) enough to take on LAD with him. Heed the 4.08 xFIP given his mediocre skills. The extra walks could be in response to a lack of trust in his 90-91 mph heater but if the .250 BABIP regresses with those walked runners on, the backslide could be substantial.
Michael Pineda didn’t succeed against a team anywhere near as good as LAD, but I still see him in that Quintana level of streamer and I’m sure the bargain hunters were eyeing this v. OAK/v. BAL 2-step as a usable spot that could be acquired cheaply in shallow mixers. He was added in 59 Rotowire Online Championship leagues (out of 199), pushing his roster rate up to 67% in that format (133). Without a jump in Ks v. BAL, I wonder how many of those rosters he will remain on after the 2-step. He’s not walking anyone per usual, but his 8.6 H/9 and 1.7 HR/9 loom like Damoclean swords over that 3.43 ERA while that 4.98 FIP warns of what could be coming.
Decent Enough
I don’t really buy Humberto Castellanos or Elieser Hernandez in any capacity, but both were fine enough on Monday night.
If you just want blind volume hoping to spike the occasional gem, Zach Plesac is your guy! Said gem was not delivered on Monday night.
MacKenzie Gore was OK, salvaging the outing with 6 punchies. Is there room for him when Blake Snell returns? I’m not sure Nick Martinez is a firm roadblock, but I could see them giving Martinez a little more time and sending Gore down. I don’t think they should do that, I’m just acknowledging the possibility of it, especially if they see it as a way to space out Gore’s innings a bit better so he’s there down the stretch when they need him.
I’m not sure many even used Luis Castillo is his return from the IL, although as I say that I realize it’s a 2-step that includes at PIT on the weekend so there were probably more than I initially though. Those who did were hopefully keeping their expectations in check. This first start is fine and obviously you’re hoping for more this weekend. If he doesn’t build off this first start, I could see sitting him next week at TOR.
Jeffrey Springs allowed 3 base runners and all 3 scored on Jared Walsh’s home run in the 4th. He still finished the inning, going 4 with 4 Ks and 0 BB. He added 14 more pitches to his previous season high with 57 on Monday. He has been solid in 12 IP over 4 outings since they started stretching him out: 3.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 11 Ks, and 2 BB. It would be a lot better in the fantasy realm if they gave him an opener, but I’m keeping an eye on just the same. He has three legit pitches with his slider usage up at 18% in these last 12 IP. His changeup protects him from a massive platoon split, too. Monitor his usage.
Injury-Shortened
Jon Gray was felt something in his knee trying to field a bunt and left an out into the 5th inning of his solid outing.
Duds
It wasn’t quite the Gombering of last year, but it was an eerily similar setup! He had a 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 20 Ks in 21.3 IP heading into a 2-step that started in SF on Monday, April 26th. On Monday night, he took a 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 26 Ks in 27.7 IP into a 2-step that started in SF. Last night’s 5.3 IP/5 ER dud was a gem in comparison to 2021’s 1.7 IP/9 ER meltdown that has since been known simply as The Gombering. It did spur a helluva run from Gomber as he posted a 2.67 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in his next 12 starts (67.3 IP) before a tough August (7.56 ERA in 25 IP) and missed September. He gets KC at home this weekend but then the Mets in Coors next week. Everyone in their rotation except the one guy deemed fantasy viable during draft season – German Marquez – has been pretty good, but can you really trust them as things warm up in Denver?
It sucks to have your ace Brandon Woodruff get blasted by the 3-22 Reds, but they will obviously regress and that’s still a difficult park to pitch in – though Woody has never struggled before (1.93 ERA/1.02 WHIP in 18.7 IP over his career). He hasn’t dominated, but it’s still 3 gems and 3 duds. I think he will be fine.
Sometimes regression is incremental and other times you just get blasted by a great offense. The latter describes Chris Flexen’s Monday night.
Carlos Hernández just doesn’t have it as a starter and shouldn’t be rostered in any format at this juncture. He has more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) in 22.7 IP.
WHITE SOX NAYL’D IN EXTRAS
Josh Naylor’s roster rate will jump after a 2 HR, 8 RBI game on Monday night, but why is it only growing from 13% at Yahoo! and 9% at ESPN? He obviously wasn’t 11th at 1B on Razzball Player Rater before last night, but he was hitting .318/.343/.460 with 2 HR in 67 PA prior to Monday’s explosion so it’s not like his stat line is entirely built up that one magical game. Guys with 1B or OF eligibility rostered in 60% or more ESPN leagues who I would cut for Naylor include Eduardo Escobar (79%), Yuli Gurriel (75%), Spencer Torkelson (63%) – keep tabs on him, but no need to hold in 10s, Jesse Winker (91%), Alex Verdugo (91%), Enrique Hernandez (72%), and Jorge Soler (69%). Those are going to be 10-team league cuts primarily with some cuttability in 12-teamers, too. Steamer’s projection of .273/.338/.460 with 17 HR, 60 RBI, 55 R, and 2 SB puts him at 15th among 1B from here on out. I would gladly take that while knowing Naylor has the upside to be even better than that.
George Kirby, P | SEA – The Mariners standout righty dominated in his first outing on Sunday (6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K in 81 pitches v. TB) and if he is great again in Citi Field against the Mets, his price will soar. He wasn’t available in the NFBC this weekend because he was called up on Sunday and guys have to log an MLB game to get added to the pool unless they are drafted and subsequently cut. Someone in the Main Event did just that and it yielded a $410 win with a $189 runner up. Another gem at NYM and it’ll take $400 to even get in the door for most of the remaining 46 Mains where he will be bid upon this weekend. A decent outing (5 IP/3 ER/3 BB/5 K) will probably keep things in the $200-350 range for the most part with some >$400 outliers on the high end and maybe even a couple sub-$100 outliers on the low end. A dud (sub-4 IP, 4+ ER) will create an insane free-for-all that will likely range from $600-$50 in terms of winning bids.
Alek Thomas, OF | ARI – Thomas was also called up Sunday meaning he wasn’t available in most NFBC leagues. In fact, he, too, was available in just 1 Main Event. He went $144 with an $82 backup bid. He is playing in CF right now with Daulton Varsho taking over catching duties for Carson Kelly, who is on the IL with a strained oblique. This does cloud his long-term outlook when Kelly returns as Varsho (134 wRC+), Pavin Smith (112), and David Peralta (101) are all playing well enough to hold their outfield spots. Seth Beer’s (74) playing time could be in danger. They could move Christian Walker (95) to DH, Smith to 1B, Varsho to a corner opposite Peralta and keep Thomas in CF. I imagine his performance (and Beer’s for that matter) in this opportunity will dictate how likely it is that scenario plays out.
WTWT
Here is What To Watch Today for Tuesday, May 10th:
Yusei Kikuchi’s schedule of death (at NYY, at BOS, at HOU, HOU, NYY, at NYY) continues with another trip the Bronx, can he build on his gem last time out (6 IP/3 H/1 ER/1 BB/7 K) and duel Luis Severino (16% K-BB, 12% SwStr, 3.75 ERA, 1.29 WHIP in 24 IP)?
Maybe young lefty Reid Detmers can absorb some of Corey Kluber’s greatness by osmosis when they square off in LA tonight.
Mike Clevinger makes his 2nd start of the season and Wade Miley makes his debut when they duel in San Diego.
Can Alex Faedo show more of his minor league swing-and-miss stuff in his 2nd MLB start?
