Boxscore Bits: April 26th, 2022

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

A few thoughts on the games from Monday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Monday’s Starters
# Name Team IP H R ER HR BB SO TBF ERA WHIP W vFA (pi) vSI (pi) SwStr%
1 Max Scherzer NYM 7 2 0 0 0 1 10 25 0.00 0.43 0 94.1 18%
2 Miles Mikolas STL 7 4 0 0 0 1 5 27 0.00 0.71 0 93.9 92.7 10%
3 Michael Lorenzen LAA 6 3 0 0 0 4 3 23 0.00 1.17 1 95.6 94.7 11%
4 Framber Valdez HOU 6 4 1 0 0 2 5 25 0.00 1.00 0 94.1 93.6 10%
5 Corbin Burnes MIL 6.2 2 0 0 0 2 11 24 0.00 0.60 0 96.4 25%
6 Walker Buehler LAD 9 3 0 0 0 0 10 31 0.00 0.33 1 95.2 94.9 12%
7 Sam Long SFG 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 0.00 1.00 0 95.5 17%
8 Kyle Freeland COL 5 6 4 1 1 1 7 24 1.80 1.40 0 90.6 90.6 11%
9 Nathan Eovaldi BOS 7 5 2 2 2 0 5 24 2.57 0.71 0 97.3 14%
10 José Berríos TOR 7 5 2 2 0 1 4 26 2.57 0.86 0 94.3 94.3 12%
11 Kyle Gibson PHI 5.2 3 2 2 2 2 4 21 3.18 0.88 1 91.7 91.5 15%
12 Dane Dunning TEX 5.2 5 2 2 1 1 5 23 3.18 1.06 0 88.5 10%
13 Shane Bieber CLE 6.1 7 3 3 2 2 6 28 4.26 1.42 0 91.8 10%
14 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI 6 7 3 3 0 2 4 26 4.50 1.50 0 92.2 92.1 7%
Sorted by ERA

  • Scherzer-Mikolas was a really fun duel with the latter really stepping up against arguably the league’s best pitcher. He didn’t get it done the same way with half as many strikeouts and twice as many hits, but the result was the same: 7 shutout innings. Mikolas is close to a set it and forget it in 12s and deeper while he is a team streamer in leagues shallower than that.
  • Strong rebound from Lorenzen after getting trounced at HOU. I’m not too bothered by the 4 BB, either, having watched this game. He walked José Ramírez twice as he wasn’t going to let the superstar beat him. He battled Owen Miller and when he didn’t get any of the close calls, he seemed to be comfortable attacking Andrés Giménez and Austin Hedges (sac bunt, ground out). He opened 0-2 with Franmil Reyes and just couldn’t put him away. The 13% SwStr was solid despite the modest K output. A 7-gm week gives him the rare 2-step for LAA (6-man rotation) and with the early returns coming in strong for Lorenzen, I’m starting him in most spots including this week at CWS.
  • The pen spoiled an excellent rebound for Valdez and he walked just 2 in 6 strong innings after 9 free passes in his previous two starts. I understand if you sat him off the double duds, though hopefully you didn’t cut him. He has a trip to TOR this weekend and I’m starting him anywhere I have him.
  • Remember back on opening day when Burnes wasn’t fully himself? Now he is 1 out shy of three straight 7-inning gems. He has allowed just 2 ER in that time with 29 Ks and 3 BB.
  • Buehler wasn’t the same as Bieber wherein there was undue panic despite strong results, however I wasn’t fully understanding the worry with him, either. Sure, a 16% K and 1.47 WHIP are easier to worry about that Bieber’s sparkling ratios, but having watched all of Buehler’s first three starts, I didn’t see much to really cause panic. He didn’t reach 6 IP once and the Ks were low. I saw a guy who was clearly still ramping up and not fully in command just yet, thus taking outs where he could get them. ARI is a great get-right start and he did just that with the first shutty of the season. The bottom line is that even if you were worried before Monday night, it’s not like you could really do anything anyway because no one was anywhere close to sitting him… or at least I reallyyyy
  • The Kyles were solid again in their rematch, though Freeland benefitted heavily from 3 UER. Both remain solid stream options with Freeland getting CIN at home and Gibson heading to NYM. I’d definitely sit Freeland while giving Gibson a shot in 12s and deeper.
  • Berrios has almost put that season opening nightmare in his rear-view mirror, shaving his ERA down to 4.91, though the WHIP damage will take more time to outrun at 1.59.
  • Dunning hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his four starts, but Monday was just his first time going beyond 5 IP which is why his ERA is still relatively high at 4.91. I’m impressed by the 19 Ks in 18.3 IP, though I wish there was a corresponding SwStr jump. Instead, it’s nearly 2 pts off his 10% career mark. He gets ATL this weekend, which is a sit for me in 10s; I’m not completely against it in 12s and beyond. He should be stretched out enough to consistently push into the 6th inning and ATL isn’t a super scary lineup.
  • In the last Bits where Bieber pitched, I mentioned that he looked sharp from a boxscore perspective (I hadn’t seen the game) and yet it seemed like there was still some heavy concern in the fantasy community. Velocity is important and I’m not suggesting it shouldn’t be tracked, it just seems a bit weird to completely ignore the results just because they come with a lower velo. Taylor Ward essentially beat him on his own tonight (2 HR, 3 RBI) and yet I liked what I saw from Biebs. I took a pass on him this year because I just wasn’t sure about the shoulder. I’d be thrilled so far if I took the discount. Obviously, injuries can strike at any moment, but he is beasting when healthy and that’s all you can ask for from a starter.
  • Hell yes, Merrill Kelly! I don’t blame anyone who sat the 33-year-old righty against LAD. High fives for those who took the plunge with the 2-step. I had to go all or nothing since lineups lock on Monday and I went for it in the one spot where I have him. I only wish I had more. His spring velo jump has maintained and fueled a fast start that includes a career-best 25% K rate. I would like to see more swinging strikes (9%) to believe that K% surge as this low of a rate can’t usually sustain a 25% rate. Kelly would be looking to repeat the feat of teammate Zac Gallen who was the only starter a sub-10% SwStr and 25%+ K rate (min. 100 IP). Only three others (Berrios, Sonny Gray, and Nick Pivetta) are added when you lower the SwStr threshold to 11%. It is kinda funny that his 4.50 ERA was the worst of the day.

FINDING NIMMO

Brandon Nimmo is in his 7th season as a major leaguer, but has just 1752 PA (consider that Juan Soto already has 2082 in 3 full seasons, 2020, and so far this year) with a career high of 535 back in 2018 and never reaching 400 in a single season outside of that. He has been a consistent OBP stud (career .393) with some pop and a touch of speed (17 HR, 7 SB per 600 PA). Nimmo smacked his 3rd HR of the season on Monday night and is off to a wonderful start. The biggest key will be staying healthy, but I’m also intrigued by the early power display. He already has 5 barrels, more than half of his 2021 total (9). His 21% HR/FB isn’t egregious, either. Nimmo should be rostered in many more leagues (31% Y!, 44% ESPN) because while healthy, he has substantial upside. At the very least, he is a runs scoring machine atop a solid lineup with some pop and speed. At best, he is starting a breakout season where he stays healthy, rips 20+ HRs, and scores 100+ runs. Buy!

STOLEN BASES

MULTI-HR/MULTI-SB

Guys with 2+ HR or SB on Monday:

  • Taylor Ward (2, 3)

NOTABLE CALLUPS

  • Richie Palacios, OF | CLE – Palacios is a hit-first prospect who slotted 32nd in Cleveland’s prospect list. He has mostly played 2B as a pro, but started shifting to OF last year and has been primarily a LF this year. With Steven Kwan nicked up, Palacios drew the start in LF for his MLB debut, but I’m not sure how long this lasts if Kwan’s injury is short-term, especially with Oscar Mercado right there vying for PT, too. I’m not picking him up until something more permanent materializes on the playing time front.

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Tuesday, April 26th:

  • It’s Brandon Woodruff Day and Sandy Alcantara Day, both must-watch for me!
  • Speaking of favorites, I’ll be dialed in on Triston McKenzie v. Patrick Sandoval.
  • Mitch Keller’s velo spike delivered some results (5.3 IP/1 ER/7 K) last time out after 2 duds, can he build on it?
  • Carlos Rodón is also a must-watch pitcher for me.
  • Daulton Jefferies has a 1.17 ERA, but just a 10% K-BB rate and I wouldn’t be surprised if SF brings him a lot closer to that 4.23 SIERA.
  • Logan Gilbert will probably add to his 1 ER allowed on the year, but he’s a stud!
  • I took a shot on the Daniel Lynch 2-step in a couple leagues, tonight is the first at CWS.
  • Marcus Stroman looks to rebound after back-to-back duds (12 ER in 8.3 IP).
  • Tony Gonsolin has a 15% SwStr and just a 15% K, will he add to his K% at ARI?

DRAFTKINGS GAME

I run a few DraftKings games each week and it’s open to anyone up to 75 people ($5 Entry). This isn’t a sponsored thing, just my own little game for fun. Click here to play!





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

5 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
ihatepantsmember
1 year ago

Sandoval’s ratios are nice, but being in a six man rotation and only lasting four innings each time so far has been tough. Seems like rostering someone who follows an opener might be better if he can’t get his innings up to get a shot at a win.

ihatepantsmember
1 year ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Yeah makes sense coming off the back injury, easy enough hold in my 12tm but have him in a h2h 10 with shallow benches. Joe Ryan, Luis Garcia, and Brash are on the wire as tempting options.

ihatepantsmember
1 year ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Now this is more like it, granted it’s Cleveland, 😜.