Boxscore Bits: April 29th, 2022

A few thoughts on the games from Thursday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

• Wheeler’s velo is still down 2 mph off last year’s mark, but it was nice to see his first strong outing. He remains an easy auto start despite not quite being the Zack Wheeler we drafted just yet. He gets TEX next week.
• I want to believe in Hudson because his heavy groundball lean is tailor-made for this elite defense – and it’s pay dividends so far with a 5.0 H/9 – but the 12% BB rate is a bit scary and could be particularly painful as that .180 BABIP regresses. He gets a 2-step next week at KC and at SF. KC has the contact-heavy approach (3rd-lowest K% vR at 21%) to start pushing the BABIP up while SF is just a tough matchup in general (9th in wRC+ vR at 112) so this isn’t a lock for even 15s let alone as a stream in 10s and 12s. Be careful!
• OK, can we get Whitlock back in the follower role or even the closer role? This 3-4 IP starter role isn’t all that fun. I understand they are probably stretching him out (48 pitches in 1st start, 61 in 2nd), but have some consideration for us fantasy dweebs and stretch him out in the follower role so we can cop some wins! Jokes aside, I’m still fully in on Whitlock.
• Zimmermann and Skubal got completely screwed by their defenses with the O’s and Tigers combining for 9 errors with each performing a hat trick in the fifth inning. As PitcherList’s Ben Palmer points out, Zimmermann’s fastball is a problem, but his secondaries are strong. He has dropped the usage 5 pts from last year (37%)… how about slicing another 25-30 points off that total, Bruce?
• Zimm didn’t allow a single earned run, but Skubal was still saddled with 3. He pitched way better than that line suggests, but I’m worried that this wretched defense will continue to hamper Skubal and his rotation mates. I am still impressed by Skubal having not allowed a HR in his first 4 starts and cutting his OPS vR by 100 points.
• Perez has back-to-back gems, this one against HOU, but his skills are no different (+1 in K-BB%) as a .267 BABIP and 0 HR are doing the heavy lifting here. He is a deep league streamer. A trip to PHI will likely get his regression going but then he gets KC the week after and could be worth a look.
• No, Verlander won’t maintain a .190 BABIP and 95% LOB rate, but the unicorn looks completely back with his velo at 95 mph and K-BB% at 26%, both in line with marks in HOU (95 mph, 30%). What a stud!
• We’ve entered the BABIP Zone of today’s chart with Perez, JV, and Keller all toting low marks that are unlikely to sustain. Keller’s is the lowest of the bunch at .182 and even with a strong infield defense and killer sinker (56% GB rate), there is no shot that will hold up. I’m also not sure his BB%, which is nearly halved from last year at 6%, will hold as we haven’t seen any tangible improvements in Zone% or 1st-PitchStrike%. He is standard matchup streamer and I’m passing against STL next week.
• Wright is second to only Carlos Rodón (43%) in K% so far this year with a 37% mark. Even acknowledging that we are just four starts into the season, the former #5 overall pick from 2017 looks like a true breakout with brilliant skills. I see Wright with a 3.50 or better ERA the rest of the way with a sub-1.20 WHIP and tons of strikeouts. I’m open to buying high as I’m not sure the asking price will match what he does the rest of the way even though it will obviously be higher than his draft day price (late round pick or early waiver pick).
• Quantrill battled against a tough LAA team and it was impressive, but his velo is down 2 mph and he has a literal 0% K-BB. I’d be reallyyy careful with a 2-step at CWS and at MIN next week. Regression is coming and it could be painful.
• It’s still not great with Rogers, but he made it 6 IP for the first time since June 15th and has now allowed just 1 ER in his last 2 starts (11 IP). I’m still auto-starting him across all formats, especially with a 2-step next week (ARI, at SD).
• Quintana was on fire with 9 Ks against MIL in 5 IP. It just a good outing, not some shift back into fantasy relevance. I could see giving him a go at DET next week in deeper formats as he is very much in the Martín Pérez tier of pitchers.
• Detmers is going through on-the-job training which will breed volatility for the young lefty. His 16% K-BB rate is solid, though he is definitely getting the most out of his 8% SwStr rate and without a jump, the 23% K rate could be headed downward. He has just a 67% LOB rate for his career despite a markedly better K-BB rate with Men On (18%) than with Bases Empty (5%). His BABIP shoots up from .250 to .348 with Men On which is driving a lot of the trouble. I still love the rookie southpaw, just want shallow leaguers to know that this will be a challenge as he might not start cruising as a full-time play until the summer.
• Don’t get too excited by this Corbin gem as he heads to COL next and there is absolutely no universe where you should start him.
• Ober left early with right groin tightness. There is no further news as of this writing so stay tuned over the weekend to see whether you should start him for a his 2-step next week (at BAL, v. OAK).
• Kopech battled through control issues (4 BB) and wasn’t missing bats at his normal clip (7% SwStr) but still made it through five and kept CWS in position to win. Don’t forget that the 26-year-old righty has just 102.7 career IP under his belt so this is still a work in progress.
• Mahle is still having his normal home ERA issues (5.93 in 3 starts) though at least in previous years he maintained a 17% K-BB rate at Great American Ballpark. This year it’s down to 8% making it harder to see how he digs out of this home hole.

KIM ON THE RISE?

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 has gone 4-for-7 with 2 2B, a HR, 5 RBI, and 3 R scored in his last two games, pushing his slash line from .182/.308/.333 to .250/.362/.500. The Padres utilityman has just 47 PA but if blue chip rookie C.J. Abrams doesn’t get going soon (59 wRC+), he could be headed to Triple-A (a level he has skipped to this point) which would clear a full-time path at SS for Kim. I still see breakout potential from Kim. He has walked at a 13% clip with a 19% K rate that could even come down a bit given the 7% SwStr rate, though I imagine his penchant for deep counts and walks will keep the Ks relatively high despite his strong bat-to-ball skills.

STOLEN BASES

• Julio Rodríguez (7, 8)
• Ronald Acuña Jr. (1, 2)
• Roman Quinn (1, 2)
• Harrison Bader (5)
• Joey Wendle (4)
• Bobby Witt Jr. (4)
• J.T. Realmuto (3)
• Brandon Marsh (3)
• Brett Phillips (3)
• Santiago Espinal (3)
• Tim Locastro (3)
• Wander Franco (2)
• Dansby Swanson (2) – part of a combo meal!
• Jon Berti (1)
• Yadier Molina! (1)
• Christian Arroyo (1)

NOTABLE CALLUPS

• Sam Huff, C | TEX – Huff is up while Jonah Heim is on the paternity list so this could be short-term but keep Huff on your radar even if this trip is brief. Even with a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, the 24-year-old backstop could be an impact C2 if any sort of significant role opens up. He is coming off a down season that saw him post a 40% K rate in Double-A, but he still hit 10 HR in 191 PA. He has quickly swatted 3 HR in 63 PA at Triple-A this year though the whiffs remain (37% K%).

FRIDAY FAAB

Heading to the weekend, I’ll give a few names to consider in FAAB for the weekend. I will try to give a name or two for many league sizes:

Deep:

• Tim Locastro | NYY, OF – If you can afford to roster a pinch-runner to boost your SBs, Locastro is your guy. He has 3 SBs on the season already and he’s even contributed a HR and 238 wRC+, but obviously that is small sample madness (career 85 wRC+). This completely a speed play and the rest of your offense should be very strong if you are going to take on Locastro.
• Keegan Thompson | CHC, P – Thompson has thrived in a long relief role, going at least 2.7 IP per outing for a total of 16.7 IP through five outings. He is missing bats at a 28% clip, has trimmed 5 pts off his walk rate down to 8%, and his GB rate is up 15 pts to 58%! He seems to be trusting his fastball more and that’s been the key driver for him. His CSW% on the pitch has jumped from 26% to 37%. With so many SPs consistently capped 5 IP (if they even reach that), these multi-inning middle men are garnering more fantasy value than ever, offering Ks, ratios, and solid win potential.
• Trevor Larnach | MIN, OF – I really like Larnach, but with Alex Kirilloff on a rehab assignment, his time in MIN could be short-lived. I still included him just to make sure he stays on your radar in case he either sticks through Kirilloff’s return or comes back soon after if another spot opens.

Medium:

• Joey Wendle | MIA, 3B/SS – Wendle is playing consistently off to a fantastic start (.321/.379/.472) highlighted by his 4 SBs. He could be headed for a new career-high SBs, eclipsing 2018’s 16. He has always been a good base stealer (74% success) and MIA is leaning into that.
• Jakob Junis | SF, P – I would love to see SF leave Junis in the follower’s role as it would greatly boost his win potential. We saw a new changeup in his first outing against WAS that was noticeably absent v. OAK, but that seemed to be based on a lack of need against a paltry A’s lineup that only had 2 lefties in it. He gets LAD next time out so I’m not trying to start him for that, but I think it’s worth picking him up now and reserving him because if he does do well, then his price will skyrocket. Keep an eye on that changeup usage. He needs it for consistent success as the fastball doesn’t do enough to support his excellent slider.

Shallow:

• Harrison Bader | OF, STL – I’m sorry, but why is Bader rostered in just 20% of ESPN leagues?! I know he isn’t tearing the cover off the ball, but he leads the NL with 5 SBs and has very intriguing power-speed upside. He has held his K% gains from last year and I really see breakout potential from him.
• Miles Mikolas | P, STL – Double Cardinals flavor here in shallow leagues as these guys just aren’t getting their due. Mikolas is rostered in 58% of Yahoo! leagues and 48% of ESPN leagues, both of which feel too low for someone who is no worse than a team streamer. Even if the Ks remain modest, he should be a ratios stud with strong W potential.

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Friday, April 29th:

• Frankie Montas is a must-watch for me these days.
• As is Tylor Megill.
• Can Matt Brash harness his incredible stuff for a big outing at MIA?
• José Urquidy is trying to get on track but gets a tough draw in TOR.
• I think Noah Syndergaard’s strikeouts (16%) will rise and be more commensurate with his 13% SwStr rate.
• More and more people are starting to understand the greatness of Nasty Nestor Cortes!
• How will Hunter Greene’s stuff hold up in Coors?
• Alex Wood gets a second straight start against WAS, will he have his first outing north of 5 IP?