Bold prediction time. Let the bashing begin.

1. Miguel Cabrera will not be one of the top two fantasy players. A couple of thoughts here. He is just an old, heavy player with a recent injury history. I don’t think he will have enough production to over come time lost to a possible disable list trip. Even though he is at 1B this season, he is still susceptible to injuries. Also, a full season from Carlos Gonzalez or Ryan Braun could be enough to take one of the top two spots.

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I’ll spare you my typically wordy, self promoting intro that usually goes here. In no particular order:

1. The Minnesota Twins finish near .500.

Right off the top I know this one sounds crazy, but hear me out. As I wrote elsewhere, not only does bringing in Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes help stabilize the rotation, but at this very second in spring training pitchers who threw nearly 400 innings for the club last year are battling for the No. 5 spot in the rotation (Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Samuel Deduno, and Kyle Gibson). That represents nearly 45 percent of innings thrown by Twins starters last year. Read the rest of this entry »

After a year hiatus from boldly predicting, I’ve been cajoled into joining the fray at risk of being called not bold enough and too bold at the same time. I skipped last year for a several reasons, but chief among them was disdain for the pulp variety in which the bold had to occupy to qualify as truly bold. Nobody wants to be a faker bold. What I’ve come to realize is that a lot of our bold predictions simply quantify in narrative terms our own respective irrational exuberance of Spring. Which I think is healthy. So head screwed on straight with new context, I present my personal bold(ish) predictions (and my fingers are crossed to break the 30% threshold of correctness).

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Dear Reader, I have heard your (kind of unruly) demands for bolder Bold Predictions and I come to you today bearing two pieces of good news.

First, it’s Friday. Congrats, you made it. Time to coast on in to the weekend. Second (most importantly) I am committed to throwing stuff at the wall here pleasing your discerning Bold Prediction palates today with ten things that I think technically have a nonzero chance of happening, but are pretty out there.

So let’s take a ride on the Crazy Train, shall we?
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This being my first year here at RotoGraphs, this is my first foray into the insanity that is Bold Predictions season. This was a highly enjoyable piece for me to research and write, so I hope that shows through in the predictions. Without any further adieu, I humbly present to you my bold predictions for 2014.

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Is everyone Bold Prediction’d out yet? No? Good. I thought with a mid-week slot I’d be alright this year, but six other writers dropped their gutsy dice-rolls on Wednesday so here I am, again somewhat late to the party and risking repetition. On the bright side, this year I’m able to post mine while they can still help you with your draft (or destroy it…probably destroy it).

Last year’s success rate wasn’t excellent, but when it comes to these deep dives, hitting three or four out of 10 provides more value than the six or seven wrong ones cost you. That’s the hope, anyway. So hit control-B, people, and let’s get bold as love. Here’s hoping they’re bold enough (spoiler: they never are).
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1. Jason Heyward will be the No. 1 overall player in 5×5 leagues with OBP instead of AVG; he will hit .295/.415/.540 with 30 home runs, 110 runs, 70 RBI, and 25 steals.

In 2012, Jason Heyward spent about half of his plate appearances in the third spot in the batting order and the other half in the four-to-seven range. A full-time move to the leadoff spot could add another 50 or more plate appearances over a full season. Of course, full season is the critical phrase. Heyward really has just one full season to his credit, in 2012. That year, he reached 651 plate appearances. Add the 50 and round to 700. For his career, Heyward has a .259/.352/.443 triple slash with 24 home runs, 95 runs, 75 RBI, and 14 steals per 700 plate appearances. As the leadoff man, those numbers should skew away from RBI and toward runs, but they are equally valuable in roto. Heyward has increased his line drive rate each of the last two seasons, from 13.1 percent in 2011 to 19.3 percent in 2012 and 21.4 percent last season. If that trend continues, his BABIP should jump 40-plus points from the .281 he had last year and carry his average to near .300. Meanwhile, most of the Braves’ lineup suffered down years in 2013. If even half recover and Heyward plays a full season, his counting stats should soar. He’s still impossibly young at 24, but I think this is the season he enters his prime and becomes a perennial MVP candidate.

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You guys know I like to swing from the heels on these, so buckle up for my 10 bold predictions for this season. We can forget about my uber-platinum sombrero on last year’s predictions. It was a bad day that turned into a season long slump.

1. Drew Smyly will be more valuable than Doug Fister

This isn’t a knock on Fister, I’m just a believer in Smyly’s strikeout rate. Fister may end the season with more innings pitched, however in standard 5×5 leagues, Smyly will edge him in terms of raw value. I don’t expect Smyly’s 10.7% swinging strike rate to continue as a starter, however he should still be able to edge out Fister’s pedestrian strikeout rate.
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While they say “go big or go home,” these bold predictions tend to be a double-edged sword for us. We want to go bold, but we don’t want to be so outlandish that our predictions are unrealistic. We want to be right, but hedging our boldness only leads to the obligatory “these predictions aren’t so bold” comment which makes us feel shame for wimping out. I’m hoping to walk that fine line between wishful thinking and practical conjecture, but I tend to lean towards the outrageous, so I’m just going to have some fun here. Read the rest of this entry »

I’d like to think I did pretty well with my rookie set of “Bold Predictions” last year. Took a lot of heat for saying R.A. Dickey would struggle? Check. “Jed Lowrie can’t survive a full season, are you mad!?” Check. “Clay Buchholz will get injured, he can’t be a top-25 starting pitcher!” Um. Check?

Well, now it’s time for the inevitable sophomore slump. As always, I tried to be a bit bolder than my compadres here at Rotographs (because A) this is fun, and B) I read their comment sections) but that may be setting me up for some spectacular busts, too. Remember when I said Pedro Alvarez wouldn’t even crack 20 homers last year? That was adorable.

Sonny Gray outpitches Jose Fernandez.

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