This being my first year here at RotoGraphs, this is my first foray into the insanity that is Bold Predictions season. This was a highly enjoyable piece for me to research and write, so I hope that shows through in the predictions. Without any further adieu, I humbly present to you my bold predictions for 2014.
Is everyone Bold Prediction’d out yet? No? Good. I thought with a mid-week slot I’d be alright this year, but six other writers dropped their gutsy dice-rolls on Wednesday so here I am, again somewhat late to the party and risking repetition. On the bright side, this year I’m able to post mine while they can still help you with your draft (or destroy it…probably destroy it).
Last year’s success rate wasn’t excellent, but when it comes to these deep dives, hitting three or four out of 10 provides more value than the six or seven wrong ones cost you. That’s the hope, anyway. So hit control-B, people, and let’s get bold as love. Here’s hoping they’re bold enough (spoiler: they never are).
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1. Jason Heyward will be the No. 1 overall player in 5×5 leagues with OBP instead of AVG; he will hit .295/.415/.540 with 30 home runs, 110 runs, 70 RBI, and 25 steals.
In 2012, Jason Heyward spent about half of his plate appearances in the third spot in the batting order and the other half in the four-to-seven range. A full-time move to the leadoff spot could add another 50 or more plate appearances over a full season. Of course, full season is the critical phrase. Heyward really has just one full season to his credit, in 2012. That year, he reached 651 plate appearances. Add the 50 and round to 700. For his career, Heyward has a .259/.352/.443 triple slash with 24 home runs, 95 runs, 75 RBI, and 14 steals per 700 plate appearances. As the leadoff man, those numbers should skew away from RBI and toward runs, but they are equally valuable in roto. Heyward has increased his line drive rate each of the last two seasons, from 13.1 percent in 2011 to 19.3 percent in 2012 and 21.4 percent last season. If that trend continues, his BABIP should jump 40-plus points from the .281 he had last year and carry his average to near .300. Meanwhile, most of the Braves’ lineup suffered down years in 2013. If even half recover and Heyward plays a full season, his counting stats should soar. He’s still impossibly young at 24, but I think this is the season he enters his prime and becomes a perennial MVP candidate.
You guys know I like to swing from the heels on these, so buckle up for my 10 bold predictions for this season. We can forget about my uber-platinum sombrero on last year’s predictions. It was a bad day that turned into a season long slump.
1. Drew Smyly will be more valuable than Doug Fister
This isn’t a knock on Fister, I’m just a believer in Smyly’s strikeout rate. Fister may end the season with more innings pitched, however in standard 5×5 leagues, Smyly will edge him in terms of raw value. I don’t expect Smyly’s 10.7% swinging strike rate to continue as a starter, however he should still be able to edge out Fister’s pedestrian strikeout rate.
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While they say “go big or go home,” these bold predictions tend to be a double-edged sword for us. We want to go bold, but we don’t want to be so outlandish that our predictions are unrealistic. We want to be right, but hedging our boldness only leads to the obligatory “these predictions aren’t so bold” comment which makes us feel shame for wimping out. I’m hoping to walk that fine line between wishful thinking and practical conjecture, but I tend to lean towards the outrageous, so I’m just going to have some fun here. Read the rest of this entry »
I’d like to think I did pretty well with my rookie set of “Bold Predictions” last year. Took a lot of heat for saying R.A. Dickey would struggle? Check. “Jed Lowrie can’t survive a full season, are you mad!?” Check. “Clay Buchholz will get injured, he can’t be a top-25 starting pitcher!” Um. Check?
Well, now it’s time for the inevitable sophomore slump. As always, I tried to be a bit bolder than my compadres here at Rotographs (because A) this is fun, and B) I read their comment sections) but that may be setting me up for some spectacular busts, too. Remember when I said Pedro Alvarez wouldn’t even crack 20 homers last year? That was adorable.
Sonny Gray outpitches Jose Fernandez.
My bold predictions article from last year was summarily found to be not bold. The very first commenter said it wasn’t bold and 63 people gave that comment a thumbs up. Another commenter sarcastically chided me saying “You mean Rickie Weeks won’t have (a) career worst season again?” As it turns out, Weeks did have his career worst full season according to wRC+. Not sure if that makes me or the commenter dumb. Probably both.
What I did in last year’s bold predictions was take guys from each position that weren’t being drafted as starters who I thought would be starters. Only three of my ten predictions came true, which is the same batting average Eno thinks is normal for these bold predictions articles. Of course that could just mean that I’m so bad at this that I couldn’t get more than 3/10 right with such obvious calls.
But I’m getting back on the horse this year with a slightly different saddle. The mistake I made last year was discussing players I had ranked as starters in my preseason ranks. This year I’ll be discussing guys that I have ranked just outside starter territory that I think could end up beating my projection and ranking. This means that all players discussed will have an ADP that is, on average, lower than that of the players I discussed last year (all ADP from ESPN). I guess technically that makes the predictions more bold.
If you still don’t think the predictions are bold enough, sorry. My real goal here is to simply identify some guys around the diamond that I think are undervalued in drafts. The ‘bold’ in the title is there on mandate from the higher-ups. If it was up to me, this post would be titled something like ‘Undervalued Players at Each Position.’ If you happen to think some or all of the predictions are actually bold, that’s all the better. Read the rest of this entry »
Here we go again. I’m sure you all remember the hilarious results of my bold predictions last year. I’ve spent much of the offseason trying to completely erase them from my memory. I would like to say I’ve learned something after that debacle, but that’s just not the case. I went bold last year, and I don’t regret it. Though most of my predictions were comically wrong, I feel the first article at least gave owners an idea of guys I felt were overvalued, and how I came to that conclusion. The point is, I’m going to get 90% of these wrong, but I don’t care. If I can make a good enough point to make you think twice about a player, I’ll consider that a success. Can’t wait to laugh, and cry, as I read these in a few months.
‘Bout that time, eh chaps? After travelling most of the way across the country over the last three days, I’ve prepared a special concoction of face melting boldness for this lovely Tuesday. Here at RotoGraphs, it is customary to list 10 such bold picks; also Eno ordered me to do so.
I was a FanGraphs reader long before I became a scribe for them, and writing this is like coming up onstage for the first time at an open mic night at your favorite bar. Fortunately, it’s that time of the year when we’re allowed to dream big, and since the word “bold” is right in the title, there’s no shame in digging deep and sending out some Hail Mary passes as dawn rises on the 2014 season.