Yes, I’m late to the Bold Predictions party. What else is new? I’m going to be late for my own funeral, guaranteed.
Anyway, last year’s bold predictions didn’t fare entirely well, as discussed here, but the author feels that .400 is within the realm of possibility this time around.
10. Khris Davis will hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases.
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Yesterday, I went beyond the obligatory 10 bold predictions and shared my bold hitter league leaders in each of the five standard fantasy categories. So today, I take on the pitchers. Although still difficult to hit on any, the pitchers are a bit easier to get right than the hitters for two reasons. One, there are two ratio categories, rather than one, so playing time expectations are less important. And two, there’s a larger luck component involved in pitching which makes the elite guys less of a lock to lead the league in any specific category.
In 2012, I hit on one of my 10 picks. Last year, I was demoted back to the minors after putting up an 0-fer. Let’s hope that lit a fire under my butt and results in a breakout predictions year.
The discussion below does not involve bizarre predictions. In fact, it doesn’t even include bold predictions. Essentially, the discussion is just the opposite of my bold predictions post last week. Or opposite in that I’ll be discussing players I dislike compared to the average as opposed to players I like. As for what ‘the average is,’ I’m using the expert consensus rank (ECR) from FantasyPros.com. If you’re still confused on the premise of this post, maybe the image below will help.
Why stop at just 10 general bold predictions? For the third year, I am publishing my bold league leaders. These are even more difficult to be right on than the bold predictions. In 2012, I nailed exactly 0 of my 10 picks. Last year, I regained my prospect status, actually hitting on one with my predicted National League home run leader, Paul Goldschmidt. Remember, these are bold league leaders, so when running through names, I instantly disqualified a player if I didn’t personally believe the player would be considered bold to lead the league in said category.
Let’s see what I’ll be rooting for on the offensive side of the ball this season.
This is my fourth year posting my bold predictions and it is always one of the most enjoyable posts to put together. In 2011, I published a whopping 20 bold predictions, but only hit on 4 of them. I say only, but in reality, my benchmark or target correctness was always 20% to begin with. In 2012, I increased my batting average to a more respectable .300, hitting on 3 of my 10 predictions. I was again right on with 3 of my 10 last year. After consolidating my skills, am I due for a breakout season with 5 correct predictions?
Bold prediction time. Let the bashing begin.
1. Miguel Cabrera will not be one of the top two fantasy players. A couple of thoughts here. He is just an old, heavy player with a recent injury history. I don’t think he will have enough production to over come time lost to a possible disable list trip. Even though he is at 1B this season, he is still susceptible to injuries. Also, a full season from Carlos Gonzalez or Ryan Braun could be enough to take one of the top two spots.
I’ll spare you my typically wordy, self promoting intro that usually goes here. In no particular order:
1. The Minnesota Twins finish near .500.
Right off the top I know this one sounds crazy, but hear me out. As I wrote elsewhere, not only does bringing in Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes help stabilize the rotation, but at this very second in spring training pitchers who threw nearly 400 innings for the club last year are battling for the No. 5 spot in the rotation (Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Samuel Deduno, and Kyle Gibson). That represents nearly 45 percent of innings thrown by Twins starters last year. Read the rest of this entry »
After a year hiatus from boldly predicting, I’ve been cajoled into joining the fray at risk of being called not bold enough and too bold at the same time. I skipped last year for a several reasons, but chief among them was disdain for the pulp variety in which the bold had to occupy to qualify as truly bold. Nobody wants to be a faker bold. What I’ve come to realize is that a lot of our bold predictions simply quantify in narrative terms our own respective irrational exuberance of Spring. Which I think is healthy. So head screwed on straight with new context, I present my personal bold(ish) predictions (and my fingers are crossed to break the 30% threshold of correctness).
Dear Reader, I have heard your (kind of unruly) demands for bolder Bold Predictions and I come to you today bearing two pieces of good news.
First, it’s Friday. Congrats, you made it. Time to coast on in to the weekend. Second (most importantly) I am committed to throwing stuff at the wall here pleasing your discerning Bold Prediction palates today with ten things that I think technically have a nonzero chance of happening, but are pretty out there.
So let’s take a ride on the Crazy Train, shall we?
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This being my first year here at RotoGraphs, this is my first foray into the insanity that is Bold Predictions season. This was a highly enjoyable piece for me to research and write, so I hope that shows through in the predictions. Without any further adieu, I humbly present to you my bold predictions for 2014.
