Reviewing one’s bold predictions is like opening that tupperware container that’s been forgotten at the back of your refrigerator for some time: you hope the contents might still be edible, but in actuality, you’re about to see something you wish you hadn’t, and the smell isn’t too good, either. Here we go.
As a heads up, the rankings below rely on ESPN’s Player Rater.
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In case you’re not already fighting Bold Prediction fatigue, it’s time to see how I did with mine.
1. Jorge Soler will hit at least 33 home runs
Vast and confounding is the mystery of Soler’s performance this season. One of the few things I am sure of is that he did not hit anywhere close to 33 home runs. Soler was more aggressive and struggled to make contact, while his ISO more than halved from his debut. You’ll see later where an extra dose of boldness hurt my chances, but not this time. I was nowhere close.
0-for-1
Despite being with FanGraphs since late 2009, 2015 marked the first season in which I entered my bold predictions for all the world to see. How’d I do? Let’s find out together. Read the rest of this entry »
I fell half a win shy of my goal of two correct bold predictions this season, but the good news is that I get to watch my one major success lead the Cubs on an exciting postseason run.
Previous bold prediction reviews: 2014
Yesterday, I reviewed my 2015 Bold Hitter League Leaders. And they were laughably bad. I haven’t actually looked at my pitcher picks as I type this and I cannot for the life of me remember them. So, let’s hope they turned out better. Here are my original explanations.
Do you like laughing? Of course, we all do. Well, have I got something for you! Incorrect bold predictions always look hilariously stupid at season’s end, that’s just the nature of the beast. Given that they are at least somewhat far-fetched to begin with, ones that fail (most of them) often do so spectacularly. The RG crew has been reviewing their bold predictions all week so it’s time for me to take my victory lap medicine poop sandwich.
I tend to think that letter-of-the-law grading with Bold Predictions isn’t necessary as the purveyor of them is usually trying to get across a more general point as opposed to nail it exactly. For example, if someone said Kendrys Morales will be a top 10 first baseman as one of their BPs this year, I’d be inclined to give them a +1 for that even though he was 11th at the position per the ESPN Player Rater. That said, even leniency wouldn’t help me so we’re going with letter-of-the-law grading.
Let’s get to the carnage.
My 10 Bold Predictions from 2013 were 10 swings and 10 misses. Last season I posted the same 0-for-10 line, but this year? At long last, I broke through and got one right! Actually, I got more than one right, but I’m just gloating now. My full prediction piece can be found here. For style, I’m stealing Alex Chamberlain’s prediction-by-prediction commentary.
1. Josh Donaldson will score 120 runs (or post 130 RBI)
Originally this was written he’ll just score 120 runs, but the commenters thought Donaldson may hit behind the likes of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. While I certainly agreed that seemed like the best lineup construction, I wasn’t convinced the Blue Jays would do that, but I edited in the possibility for a huge RBI season. For the first month the comment section proved correct as Donaldson hit third or fifth a combined 14 times in April, but then the team moved him to the No. 2 spot for the majority of the season. He finished with 122 runs scored and 123 RBIs, barely edging my prediction, but hey, a win is a win.
1-for-1, the streak has been broken!
When I wrote my 10 Bold Predictions in March, I knew they were bold. And when I reviewed them in July, I knew they were not going well.
But this poorly? Yikes.
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Aside from my annual bold predictions, I risk complete embarrassment by also trying to predict the surprise league leaders on both the hitting and pitching side. Obviously, these are even more difficult than the bold predictions and getting even one right is quite the accomplishment. Let’s see how this season’s crop of longshots did.
In March, I made some bold predictions. I thought they were fairly bold, so I was ready to award myself the participation ribbon no matter what. In July, the predictions, somewhat predictably, looked bad. And they still look bad now.
But I don’t feel so badly about them. Many of them were pretty dang close, and I’m proud. But a win-loss record doesn’t care about minutiae, and the win-loss record ain’t so good.
1. Giancarlo Stanton finishes outside the top 10… outfielders.
