Yesterday, I reviewed my 2015 Bold Hitter League Leaders. And they were laughably bad. I haven’t actually looked at my pitcher picks as I type this and I cannot for the life of me remember them. So, let’s hope they turned out better. Here are my original explanations.
Do you like laughing? Of course, we all do. Well, have I got something for you! Incorrect bold predictions always look hilariously stupid at season’s end, that’s just the nature of the beast. Given that they are at least somewhat far-fetched to begin with, ones that fail (most of them) often do so spectacularly. The RG crew has been reviewing their bold predictions all week so it’s time for me to take my victory lap medicine poop sandwich.
I tend to think that letter-of-the-law grading with Bold Predictions isn’t necessary as the purveyor of them is usually trying to get across a more general point as opposed to nail it exactly. For example, if someone said Kendrys Morales will be a top 10 first baseman as one of their BPs this year, I’d be inclined to give them a +1 for that even though he was 11th at the position per the ESPN Player Rater. That said, even leniency wouldn’t help me so we’re going with letter-of-the-law grading.
Let’s get to the carnage.
My 10 Bold Predictions from 2013 were 10 swings and 10 misses. Last season I posted the same 0-for-10 line, but this year? At long last, I broke through and got one right! Actually, I got more than one right, but I’m just gloating now. My full prediction piece can be found here. For style, I’m stealing Alex Chamberlain’s prediction-by-prediction commentary.
1. Josh Donaldson will score 120 runs (or post 130 RBI)
Originally this was written he’ll just score 120 runs, but the commenters thought Donaldson may hit behind the likes of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. While I certainly agreed that seemed like the best lineup construction, I wasn’t convinced the Blue Jays would do that, but I edited in the possibility for a huge RBI season. For the first month the comment section proved correct as Donaldson hit third or fifth a combined 14 times in April, but then the team moved him to the No. 2 spot for the majority of the season. He finished with 122 runs scored and 123 RBIs, barely edging my prediction, but hey, a win is a win.
1-for-1, the streak has been broken!
When I wrote my 10 Bold Predictions in March, I knew they were bold. And when I reviewed them in July, I knew they were not going well.
But this poorly? Yikes.
Read the rest of this entry »
Aside from my annual bold predictions, I risk complete embarrassment by also trying to predict the surprise league leaders on both the hitting and pitching side. Obviously, these are even more difficult than the bold predictions and getting even one right is quite the accomplishment. Let’s see how this season’s crop of longshots did.
In March, I made some bold predictions. I thought they were fairly bold, so I was ready to award myself the participation ribbon no matter what. In July, the predictions, somewhat predictably, looked bad. And they still look bad now.
But I don’t feel so badly about them. Many of them were pretty dang close, and I’m proud. But a win-loss record doesn’t care about minutiae, and the win-loss record ain’t so good.
1. Giancarlo Stanton finishes outside the top 10… outfielders.
This year, I went bolder. I went more precise. I tied success to specific numbers.
I’m guessing that will tank my completion percentage, which has hovered around 33-40%. Let’s check the tape. I’m nervous.
Well, it is that time when we look back to see how bad were our 2015 BOLD preseason predictions. Let me see if I can improve on last year’s three for 10 results.
Note: I will use the rating from ESPN and Yahoo! to determine the player’s ranking.
1. Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw will not be the #1 ranked fantasy player for 2015.
Well, I started out fine. Kershaw came close by being the 3rd overall pitcher with Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke ahead of him. Kershaw was his normal self, but Greinke and Arrieta had career seasons. Trout was a little further down the hitter rankings at #7. His biggest issue was an injured wrist which limited his production.
1 for 1
2. Pedro Alvarez will lead the National League in home runs.
Nope. He ended up tied for tenth in the NL with 27 home runs. The 27 was more than most people expected, but not #1. I should have stated HR/FB% in which he was #1 in the NL (and AL) with a min 400 PA. Alvarez needs to find his way to the American league where he can bat every day.
1 for 2
This was my first foray into the Bold Predictions (emphasis on bold) so let’s see how I did:
1.) Nathan Eovaldi breaks out in New York.
Eovaldi lowered his ERA and had a pretty 14-3 record but a 4.20 ERA and only 121 strikeouts in 154 innings pitched does not constitute as a break out. In spite of increased average fastball velocity (96.7 mph compared to 95.7 mph in 2014) Eovaldi’s ability to miss bats barely improved. His SwStr% rose a few fractions of a point and his K% jumped a point and a half to 18% but both marks are below the league average. I still hold out hope that Eovaldi can break out in the near future but it wasn’t in 2015.
0 for 1
Last year, I hit .300 on my Bold Predictions, which is about what I aim for. That feels like the boldness sweet spot. This year, not so much. It saddens me to report that I was overly bold this year, getting just one Bold Prediction right. However, one other was incredibly close, so I’ll say that I hit .150 this season. Still, I can and will do better next year.
I have failed you, dear readers.
1. Jorge Soler is a top-ten outfielder.
Well, he was a top-100 outfielder, slotting in at No. 99 on the season. Soler battled his fair share of injuries this year, but even when he was healthy enough to play, he hit just .262/.324/.399, with 10 home runs in 404 plate appearances. For the year, he registered a 0.0 WAR. Here’s hoping he turns it around next season.