2018 Bold Hitter League Leaders

Every season, in addition to posting my standard bold predictions, I up the ante with my bold league leaders. If you thought nailing a bold prediction was tough, the bold league leaders are even more difficult! Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. Because these are bold, I automatically disqualify players I don’t personally believe is considered bold or is projected to finish top five in the category. So I challenge myself and it typically causes me to bat .000. This is more for fun and dreaming of what could be than any serious attempt at being right.

We’ll start with the hitting league leaders in each of the five categories, split up by league.

American League

Batting Average – Manny Machado

This is my third season in a row picking Machado here. Third time’s a charm, right? Out of my top 26 projected batting average leaders, Machado is forecasted for the lowest BABIP. That means more room for good fortune and growth! Last year, he suddenly lost the ability to hit line drives and continued to hit too many pop-ups. That makes for a not good BABIPer. But with his combination of contact ability and home run power, he puts a lot of balls in play, many of which go over the wall for an auto-hit. He surely needs to improve that batted ball profile, but he’s got the other factors that drive BABIP going for him already. One of these years the BABIP fairies are going to sprinkle their dust onto his bat.

Home Runs – Gregory Bird Miguel Sano

I literally had Bird chosen yesterday afternoon before the results of his doctor’s visit was shared. Back to the drawing board I went. Sano posted the fifth highest xHR/FB rate in baseball last year, won’t be suspended, and has hit well enough during the spring to alleviate concerns about recovering from shin surgery. He hits more fly balls than grounders and since his strikeout rate is already so bad, there’s seemingly room for dramatic improvement. That doesn’t mean it’ll happen, but even a reduction to a 30% strikeout rate would massively boost his home run potential.

RBI – Nick Castellanos

For a bold RBI league leader, my choice must be expected to hit cleanup, as that’s the spot with the most opportunities. Castellanos is finally getting his chance there. He still has more offensive upside, as he has underperformed his xHR/FB rate for two straight seasons, while his BABIP and batting average should jump thanks to a pristine batted ball profile.

Runs – Ian Kinsler

Like picking a cleanup hitter for the RBI lead, the runs scored leader should be a leadoff guy, preferably with power so he could also knock himself in. Kinsler’s .244 BABIP last year was a complete fluke — his xBABIP was a much more respectable .301. He’s moving to an excellent Angels lineup and to a ballpark that just lowered their fences to make it a bit less pitcher friendly.

Stolen Bases – Leonys Martin

There were no good bold choices here that I really felt had a chance, but Martin has excellent speed and new Tigers manager was quoted as saying he wants Martin to be aggressive on the bases atop the lineup. He very well might not get on base enough to really take advantage and I doubt he remains in the leadoff slot all year. But part of the stolen base equation is a manager’s running philosophy, and if you have your manager’s blessing, then Martin could choose to make the most of his times on base.

National League

Batting Average – Freddie Freeman

I didn’t actually think this was a bold choice until I noticed that Steamer has Freeman projected to rank 12th in batting average in the National League. Blasphemy! Freeman is a BABIP king, driven by line drives, few pop-ups, and hard hit balls. The added home run power now makes him an annual threat to lead the NL in batting average.

Home Runs – Kyle Schwarber

The NL doesn’t have any obvious home run league leaders like the AL, so it’s really a huge group of legit possibilities. Schwarber seems like a new man this spring and perhaps he’ll finally reach that elusive 500 PA level this season. Like Sano above, Schwarber could afford to improve his strikeout rate, but he already hits enough fly balls.

RBI – Marcell Ozuna

This is an odd choice because I called him a 2018 bust after last season’s breakout. However, while moving to Busch Stadium isn’t any better than playing at Marlins Park, he figures to hit cleanup behind a trio of high OBP guys with average to good speed. Since there also isn’t elite power in any of their bats, the base-clearing won’t be performed ahead of Ozuna. This is almost an ideal RBI situation. I think Ozuna will disappoint in the homer and batting average front, but RBIs are in the bag.

Runs – Christian Yelich

This one was easy, as Steamer projected Yelich to rank just ninth in the NL in runs scored. Ninth?! He’s moving from a top pitcher’s park to one of the most hitter friendly venues in baseball, will be batting leadoff in front of an excellent lineup, has the power to knock himself in, and the speed to speed around the bases.

Stolen Bases – Manuel Margot

Aaaaand this is the second season in a row I landed on Margot. Man, stolen base sleepers are so tough, especially when betting against a perennial 50+ steals guy. Margot surprised with the power last year, but swiped just 17 bases. Remember, though, that he had been a consistent 30-40 steals guy in the minors and ranked 10th in Sprint Speed on the Statcast leaderboard. Since I don’t expect him to repeat that power output like all the projection systems, that should give him a couple of extra opportunities to steal a base.