Paul Sporer’s Bold Predictions for 2018
It’s Bold Prediction time!! After a 2-for-10 performance last year (and even that took some favorable grading), I’m ready to go off this year and bat at least .500! The funny thing is I’d love to repeat some of mine last year despite missing on them in 2017. Delino DeShields made mine last year and now he’s a draft darling surging up the board. I like Blake Treinen to be a strong closer and could still see that Carlos Martinez sub-2.50 ERA season! But don’t worry, I have 10 fresh Bold Predictions ready for you – five hitters and five pitchers.
Let’s do this! You’ll never guess who’s leading off?
Ozzie Albies has a 15 HR/40 SB season
Could this article even be posted without an Albies prediction? Just three players had 35+ stolen bases last year so that’s almost certainly the more daring of the two pieces even with Albies’ power not being fully developed at this point. Albies himself agrees with the 40 SB outlook and has added 200 hits to the goal list, too:
"Get my 200 hits with my 40 stolen bases."@Braves second baseman @albiesozzie97 outlines his ambitious 2018 goals in his sitdown with @KelsWingert.#ChopOn pic.twitter.com/vdJMp4sGWT
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) March 13, 2018
Gregory Polanco has a 30 HR/25 SB season
I’m not so concerned with Polanco’s big spring numbers, but rather what they suggest: that his shoulder is healthy. His shoulder was an issue from the jump last year and seemed to linger over his entire season, resulting in just 11 HR and a poor 81 wRC+. I was hoping he’d build on the strong 2016 when he went 22 HR/17 SB. This pick calls for the full breakout. The 26-year old has teased and tantalized… it’s time for the dream season!
Kyle Schwarber hits 40 HR
I’ve been off the Schwarber Train from jump street because his price was always far too high for what I thought he was at the time. Part of it was definitely catcher-eligibility either locked in or assumed down the line, but even putting that to the side I always felt he was being drafted for a level his skills hadn’t even really hinted at to that point. This is a great example of how the price decides everything in fantasy baseball.
I’m sure I’ve been labeled an anti-Schwarber guy in some circles and I openly embraced that at his high cost, but now he’s down in the 150s and priced to buy. He’s also transformed his body this offseason into a svelte hitting machine, adding to his chances at his first 500+ PA season. I think this is the year his minor league hit tool starts to play out in the majors. While the 40 HRs are the prediction, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a .280 AVG, too.
Ian Kinsler puts up a .285 AVG/100 R/25 HR/25 SB
I covered my affinity for Kinsler in a couple of recent pieces here and here. I love his team situation and I can’t really find any reason to believe his .244 BABIP and .236 AVG are real based on his plate skills and batted ball profile. His age and perceived struggles will keep the price down, too.
Aaron Hicks has a 30 HR/20 SB/.380 OBP season
It was happening!!! It was all happening last year before an injury-marred second half! Hicks had a .913 OPS, 10 HR, and 7 SB through late-June (full season pace of 28 HR, 19 SB… plus over 100 R & RBI each) but was struck down by an oblique injury. The ailment spurred two DL stints and limited him to just 28 games over the rest of the season during which he had a .218/.319/.396 line. He still had 5 HR and 3 SB in that time (29, 18 pace). I’m still a big fan. Plus, his defense keeps him in the lineup.
Robbie Ray finishes outside the Top 50 SPs
We saw the best of Ray in 2017. It was a great season and a lot of fun to watch, but it required everything to go right for him. He continued to allow a ton of hard contact (40%) and homers (1.3) while walking more than ever (11%). The walks are the least of my concern, though. He doesn’t give in because he knows or at least certainly thinks he can strike out the next guy.
But I can’t explain away the consistent hard contact and homer issues. Without a gaudy .197 AVG and 85% LOB combo, there’s no way he drops a sub-3.00 ERA. FIP is far from perfect, but I think it does a good job showing that Ray’s true talent is more of a mid-3.00s ERA. I think we get more 2016 than 2017 and he falls outside the Top 50. I’m just not sure the humidor is going to greatly alter his consistent hard contact issues.
Garrett Richards finishes inside the Top 25 SPs
Richards has labored through the last two seasons with just a total of 62 innings, but the skills and arsenal remain so alluring that I’m willing to buy back in. He finished the season on the mound and hasn’t had any injury concerns in Spring Training. I think he throws 175 IP of 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, & 26% K rate.
Aaron Sanchez finishes inside the Top 30 SPs
Or at least I think he does. I see Sanchez bouncing back with 180 IP of 3.20 ERA & 1.20 WHIP, which should be good enough to finish in the Top 30. He seems to be past the blister issues and I still see strikeout upside within his arsenal.
Tanner Roark finishes inside the Top 35 SPs
Roark was the 66th SP on ESPN’s Player Rater in what was his worst season yet. A disastrous June (8.31 ERA in 30.3 IP) really did a lot of the damage as he got going a bit in the second half, but not enough to erase the damage. He posted a 3.99 ERA and 25% K rate in 85.7 innings from July 1st on, but still finished with just a 4.67 mark. He has simplified his mechanics and seems poised for a return to the prominence of 2014 and 2016 (both sub-3.00 ERA seasons). I’m not exactly projecting him for a high-2.00s ERA like those two seasons, but I can definitely see 180+ innings of mid-3.00s work and a decent strikeout rate (21% the last two years).
A.J. Minter fans 100 batters
The former 2nd-round pick took a little time to ramp up because of health issues, but he had a big 2017 that culminated with a shot of espresso in September with the Braves. That’s the same joke I used in the Baseball HQ Forecaster on Minter’s profile, but I like the analogy given how electric he was in his 15-inning cup of coffee. He had a 43% K rate and 40% K-BB rate using a devastating fastball (96 mph) and slider (90 mph) combo to destroy the opposition.
Fanning 100 in around 70 innings will require about a 36% K rate, something that 10 qualified RPs did last year. I went for Ks over SVs with Minter because I like Arodys Vizcaino if he can stay healthy. That’s always been a challenge for him, though. Minter’s left-handedness could get him skipped over for the role should Viz falter, but having Sam Freeman gives Atlanta a middle innings lefty should Minter be elevated into the ninth inning role.
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Alright, there they are! If you’ve been here before, you know the drill – put yours in the chat! If you’re new here, hopefully you get the gist after seeing mine. It’s basically putting numbers to your extreme breakouts and busts. If a guy’s career-high in homers is 30, then a 35 projection isn’t bold. If a guy’s being drafted as the 8th player at his position, saying he finishes outside the top 15 isn’t bold. Conversely, saying Miguel Cabrera steals 20 bases is bold, but stupid. Find that middle ground and let’s hear your picks!
I sure hope Paul makes his bold predictions earlier next year. We already drafted (Sat. night) in the one points keeper league to which I belong.
As much as I like his boldness, I can’t agree with his predictions for Schwarber, Richards or Kinsler. But they are indeed bold, and that’s what this exercise is all about.
Thanks Paul!
Are you really drafting based off bold predictions?
Of course not. But if the rationale is sound—as it often is—I’ll listen to it. This is a 16 team 12 keeper league, so you have to take chances. Ostensibly, the best 192 players are taken.
Another consideration: I take a high dose of medication (now Lyrica, but formerly gabapentin) to control porphyria-induced neuropathy pain. I’d like more time to do the research myself, but there are only a few hours per day where my head is relatively clear.
I know Paul watches a lot more baseball than I do and is always crunching the numbers.
That’s why I’m not offering my own bold predictions, just responding to others, fwiw.
love, love, LOVE, the Minter pick. Fingers crossed he is not the 2018 version of Koda Glover. Amazing arm, not so amazing health.
Haven’t had my draft yet but I’m big on both Schwarber and Kinsler. My problem is that they are 3 spots apart in Yahoo’s rankings and a lot of guys in myleague just draft right off the rankings. To get both I’m going to have to reach for one of them.
Who would you pick between those 2?
(BTW, 25 SB for Kinsler is BOLD – has only nabbed 25 3 times and never more than 31. Last time he hit 25 was 2011)
Ya I’m counting on the Angels run-happy ways to influence Kinsler on that 25. I’d take Schwarber w/the reach. He’s more likely to be grabbed ahead of his ADP.
Some of these are bold and some less-than-bold, but here goes:
*Willson Contreras finishes as the #1 fantasy catcher this season, edging out Gary Sanchez.
*Evan Gattis out-earns every other catcher besides the aforementioned two.
*Trea Turner stays healthy for a full season, hitting 20 HRs, stealing 65 bags, and finishing as the #1 overall player in fantasy.
*Christian Yelich returns first round value is is drafted accordingly next season.
*David Dahl is a top 75 player and an early round draft choice next season.
*Justin Bour hits 40 HRs, buoyed by a mid-season trade to the Red Sox.
*Byron Buxton is the first player since 2012 to post a 30/30 season.
*Noah Syndergaard is hurt again early in the season, this time going down with Tommy John surgery.
*Corey Seager’s elbow is fine, but he hurts his back again and elects surgery, missing most of the year.
*Gerrit Cole has a monster season and finishes as a top ten pitcher.
*Luis Castillo, Luke Weaver, and Zack Godley are all top 20 pitchers.
*Shohei Otani hits the waiver wire in many shallow leagues by mid-season.
*Delino DeShields posts a .265/100/10/65/45 line and finishes as a top 50 player.
*Manny Margot posts a similar line but with 5 more HR’s, also finishing as a top 50 player.
*Jose Martinez finds 500 ABs and is a top ten fantasy first baseman.
*Dominic Leone saves 30 games with stellar peripherals.
That’s pretty damn bold for sure. I can see the Jose Martinez one happening with even fewer ABs.
I can see Bour being traded but not to the Red Sox. They already have two capable first basemen and few really good prospects left in their system.
IMHO, Buxton might hit 30 HRs some year, but not in 2018.
The Ohtani hate is funny. This guy is imperially better than Darvish by all accounts. If healthy, he’ll make fools of doubters in leagues that value Ks
1-Willson Contreras is the new Buster Posey. With a .900+OPS and top 25 status.
2-Mike Soroka will be called up in April and be a top 30 starter.
3-Paul Goldschmidt gets shrunken by the humidor into a puney sized man and no longer is a top 30 player.
4-5-6-Reds starters Romano-Mahle-Garrett finish the year as top 75 starters inspite of pitching in the launching pad.
7-8-Blake Snell out performs Chris Archer.
9-10-Rafael Devers hits more HR’s then J.D. Martinez.
11-Ronald Acuna finishes the year at .300-30-30. Of course I had to go there.
1- Gary Sanchez out scores Clayton Kershaw and Marcell Ozuna COMBINED in Ottoneu FGPTs
2- Matt Olson is Rougie Odor of 2018 but without the SB’s and more walks
3- Jameson Taillon outperforms Starling Marte in traditional 5×5
4- Randal Grichuk puts it all together and hits .265/.345/.550
5- Amed Rosario hits .290 with 35 SB’s and 15 HR, and is a top 5 SS
6- Ronald Acuna hits .235/.305/.400 with 10 SB’s and 15 HR
7- Joey Gallo finishes top 10 in AL MVP voting
8- Dee Gordon is out for the season by May by the way of crashing into the outfield wall at full speed
9- James Paxton throws 185 INN
10- Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge hit 175 HR between them, averaging 35 HR between them
I sure hope you’re right about Paxton and Rosario (kind of doubt it though); but it is bold.
And if Paul is right about Aaron Hicks, my team should be decent.
(I can’t pry away Acuna for anything in my keeper league.)
Your #10 is as bold as it gets; 175 HR from 4 players averaging 35 HR apiece…
Maybe they left out “and myself”. Like, the 4 of them plus me average 35 HR.
Dang. My bad. 140 HR then between them.
Even 175 hr between the 4 of them is less bold than Paxton throwing 185 innings.
Ozzie is going to need to cut his walk rate in half if he wants 200 hits. Why not a goal of 250 times on base? I wish more players thought in these terms.
He definitely wouldn’t have to cut his BB% to get it, but your point about times on base is well taken. I think most of the 200 H guys from last year had an 8% or better BB%.
AJ Minter is baseball’s best kept secret.
Love your consistent Garrett Richards and Aaron Sanchez love even if I wouldn’t touch either with your fantasy teams….err wait….I don’t have a good metaphor here
Schwarbs and Ray takes seem likeliest of these. I’m hoping for the Polanco excellence — especially the running. I hope he and the Pirates feel it’s green light time despite recent hamstring injury. Good fun as always – love ’em – thanks!
Josh Bell finishes in the top 10 at 1B. 30+ HRs and a .280 BA and his counting stats will rise due to his placement in the top third of the batting order all season. shhhh!
>50% GB rate
Polanco’s shoulder has been bothering him since late 2014. It would certainly be nice if it were finally fully healed. It wasn’t really the shoulder alone last year though. He pulled his groin, hurt his ankle and went on the DL 3 times with hamstring problems. He is getting close to having that injury prone tag. He did change his training plan this offseason so hopefully that helps.
What do you think between: Jon Gray in the 21st or Knebel in the 24th? Standard 5×5. H2H. Rounds increase 2 each year. My chances of competing this year are somewhat slim
As an Albies/Polanco/Hicks owner in one league…thanks for the confidence boost.
14 team H2H 5×5 Dynasty, rather stash Flaherty or Gohara for 2yrs/ $1? Was going to be Puk, but well…..
I own 4 of the 10 guys named above. I’m not sure if I should be excited you like them too or scared bc they’re in a bold prediction piece.
Really hope you are wrong about Ray, counting on him to be my ace.