Projection Analysis: Yoan Moncada

Many prospect experts project Yoan Moncada to be one of the game’s few top prospects. Some have him as the top guy but his MLB playing time and production varied substantially. I found I needed a projection I felt comfortable using.  I’ll start with his playing time.

I believe he’ll be promoted between the Super Two deadline (so the White Sox can save money) and early September (rosters expand). I thought about using July 15th (All-Star Game) as my cut off.

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I know that clown PUNKxsutawney Phil – that’s right, I’m swinging on a groundhog – saw his shadow which allegedly yields six more weeks of winter (the dumbest season), but we shan’t be deterred by that as baseball season is here. Well, fantasy baseball prep season is here which is just as good. We are less than a week away from pitchers and catchers reporting around the league which officially kicks things off in earnest and before you know it, you’ll be in your draft room making the big decisions that will shape your season.

Here are a few tips to remember as you prepare and then enter your draft:

YOU CAN’T WIN OR LOSE YOUR DRAFT IN THE FIRST ROUND

I fully understand the excitement of the draft order reveal and subsequent first round. I’m not here to say that the first round flat out doesn’t matter, but it doesn’t matter as much as we like to think. The top 15 players at the end of the season are never the top 15 drafted that March, not even close.

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My fellow RotoGraph writers and I have started compiling our preseason position rankings. My initial rankings are projection based and then I adjust them as I see fit. I found several rankings/projections where the industry and I disagree. I am going to dig into three of those players today with more to come.

Freddie Freeman: Disputed Projection

Tenth? Really? I didn’t expect Freeman that low. Depth Chart based SGP values place him out as the tenth first baseman. At NFBC, he is the 6th first baseman which is near my gut based ranking. Additionally, he just went 24th overall in MLB.com’s Fantasy411 slow industry draft.

I am fine with the six players ahead of him (Goldy, Rizzo, Cabrera, Votto, E5, and Bryant). Then my gut disagrees and I am pretty sure some of our readers will also.

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This is not a “sleeper” list. Read the rest of this entry »

This is our last position in the ADP previews, though I’m breaking it up into two parts (top 20 here and then the rest). Relief is especially interesting on the fantasy landscape because fantasy managers have such varied approaches. Some swear by locking up a superstar in the early rounds.

Hell, some swear by double-tapping studs if they have a pick on one of the ends, especially in a format like the NFBC that bars trading. Others gladly draft the crusty, unspectacular guys who just rack up saves regardless of their skills and ratios. Then there’s the group that refuses to expend many resources on closers and focus either bottom of the barrel, closers-in-waiting, or in most cases both.

I lean toward the high end. I have no issues spending an early pick on a superstar closer because of how much they can help in strikeouts and even the ratios. Nabbing someone who can pop a triple-digit strikeout total allows you some leeway on your starters, too. Like I said earlier, today we’ll focus on the first 20 closers (and some of their handcuffs) and then I’ll dive in on the low-end closers and hidden gems to cap off the series.

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This past weekend saw the release of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, including a show on MLB Network highlighting the Top 50. Andrew Benintendi was named their #1 overall prospect, a fact that’s sure raise his price some in the draft market, especially after Keith Law ranked him the same last week. Back in December, our own Trey Baughn gave him the top spot in his fantasy prospects list and CBS slotted him 2nd in a similar list focusing on fantasy impact.

I’m a little torn on Benintendi for 2017. On the one hand, he’s an advanced college bat who blitzed through the minors in 151 games and acquitted himself very well in a 34-game sample at the majors. On the other, he’s going into his age-22 season with a whopping 118 PA under his belt and that first six-month grind has a way of punching players in the face at some – or multiple points – throughout the season. But then back on the first hand, we know from Jeff Zimmerman that aging curves are moving up so maybe Benintendi is ready to be an impact bat already.

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Today’s ADP piece is looking at the SPs beyond the top 50. This is where you can win leagues. Let me emphasize “can” because leagues are rarely won or lost at the draft table alone. After all, there’s a reason we play out the six months of the season and don’t just go off a projection set. Usually a good 40-50% of many rosters turn over every year, at least in mixed leagues in the 10-15 team range.

Even if there are only 6-7 player slots turned over out of a 23-man roster (which is 25-30% turnover), there will still be many players moving in and out those slots. The point is that you shouldn’t get too precious about your draft picks in the mid-to-late rounds because a lot of them aren’t going to be on your roster very long anyway. Pitchers in particular have huge variance year-to-year so take your guys in this part of the draft.

Previous Editions:

• C/1B
• 2B/SS
• 3B
• OF Pt. 1
• OF Pt. 2
• SP Pt. 1

STARTING PITCHER (click here for ADP list)

• Jeff Samardzija (pick 196) might not have bounced back as well as some of us expected, but he shaved over a run off his ERA and further showed himself as one of the few workhorses left in the market.

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Trea Turner’s and Francisco Lindor’s Unexpected Power

In 2015, Lindor perplexed fantasy owners by hitting 12 HR in just 438 PA. He was never much of a power hitter in the minors and scouting reports put him at below average power. He’s not been the only light-hitting infield prospect with unexpected power.

Trea Turner’s home run power was unanticipated with 13 homers in about half a season last year. Like Lindor, he never hit for much power in the minors and his power grades disappointed. Should owners point to Lindor as an example for limiting power expectations after an unexpected half season?

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In a recent chat, Paul was asked the following question:

Challenge accepted. By using our auction calculator, I wrote a procedure for any league type which creates an ADP to auction value formula. I will step through the process for any league and provide a few standard equations.

Step one: Set up your league settings in our auction calculator.

Go through all the boxes and make sure each option is set correctly especially the number of bench players to bid on. For a projection, use the Depth Charts.

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The volatility of pitching makes SP average draft figures sketchy after the top 25 or so. Opinions can only differ so much on hitters, especially those with anything close to a track record (starting around ~1000+ MLB PA), but opinions will vary widely on pitchers regardless of track record. Some won’t believe in a pitcher until he has 500-600 IP under his belt regardless of how good his first 200-300 are while on the other end you have fantasy players afraid to be holding the hot potato when the music stops on someone with a lengthy track record in their mid-30s.

Most of the guys in that sweet spot are the established aces and frontliners (lower level #1s, elite #2s) that we generally agree on for those early round picks. This year is vastly different than last year which is likely to create even wider chasms perhaps as early as the mid-teens among starters. The uncertainty should create some fantastic buying opportunities, though, and it’ll open up draft strategies, too.

Last year, most teams didn’t want to exit the third round without their ace. Early on this year, teams are OK waiting until the sixth, maybe even seventh round to get their ace while they stock up on hitting and perhaps open their  pitching staff with an elite closer instead. As with outfield, I’ll do two parts with starters going through the top 50 today and then 51 and beyond next time.

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