“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”

Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster.

• Playing Time (and Role)
• Health/Durability
• Skills/Categorical Contributions
• Context of Team Offense

ADP Cluster: Middle Round Corner Infielders

ADP from 17 NFBC 12-team Online Championships (OC) drafts over the last five days (March 5 – March 9)

• Sal Stewart, 1B, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: 173.1)
• Royce Lewis, 3B, Minnesota Twins (175.4)
• Alec Burleson, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals (177.5)
• Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers (183.4)
• Addison Barger, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays (184.2)
• Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays (190.2)
• Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (193.4)

These are the seven corner infielders clustered in the Rounds 15 and 16 range of NFBC OCs. Right above them are Matt Chapman (157.8) and Willson Contreras (166.7), and right below them are Christian Walker (210.2) and Munetaka Murakami (211). Rookie prospects, multi-position eligible guys, injury risk, big power – this cluster has it all! Let’s dig into this group using our four defined pillars.

Playing Time (and Role)

The best place to start is with projected playing time. FGDC and OOPSY have identical playing time for all players, as do THE BAT and ATC. Since I manage playing time at FTN, I included my own in the average projection across three sets.

Addison Barger projects for the lightest workload due to expectations of mostly being a strong-side platoon hitter. He projects to bat cleanup against righties. Last season, Barger mostly batted fifth (109 PA), second (107) and fourth (100).

Sal Stewart has 18 games of big league experience. He is having a strong spring (.318/.423/.636, 2 HR, 2 SB in 26 PA) and projects to be an everyday bat for the Reds. At approximately 117 games, it’s likely we are all under-projecting him. Stewart has been one of the biggest ADP risers among corner infielders, jumping two rounds from February (Rd 17) to March (Rd 15). Stewart should start the season off hitting fifth behind Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suárez.

Royce Lewis’ 514 average projected plate appearances may be generous considering his woeful health history. His 403 PA last season (106 games) is a career high. Lewis is expected to hit somewhere between fifth and seventh to start the season, but could move up to third or fourth if he stays healthy and remains productive.

Kazuma Okamoto is expected to be an everyday hitter for the Blue Jays. He was quite the model of health in the NPB, averaging 589 plate appearances in his first seven seasons (2018-2024). Okamoto missed half of 2025 with a left elbow injury following a collision with a batter who was running down the first base line. Roster Resource projects Okamoto to start the season hitting seventh. He could work his way up into the top five, but Blue Jays manager John Schneider will likely utilize lefties (Barger, Daulton Varsho, Jesús Sánchez) to hit between their impact righties, projected leadoff man George Springer and no. 3 hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The St. Louis Cardinals’ Opening Day lineup is very much a work in progress. Lars Nootbaar won’t be ready in time and Iván Herrera has been dealing with knee inflammation. Rookie infielder JJ Wetherholt is essentially a lock to make the club, with a prominent role. Left-handed hitting Alec Burleson is a vital middle-of-the-order bat for the Cardinals who will start every day. Burleson greatly improved against left-handed pitching last season, albeit small samples: a 44 wRC+ in 2024 (133 PA) to a 98 wRC+ in 2025 (118 PA). Burleson should hit third to start the season.

Jonathan Aranda was having a breakout season, slashing .316/.393/.489 with 14 HR and 59 RBI in 106 games (422 PA) before fracturing his left wrist on July 31 in a collision with the human wall known as Giancarlo Stanton. Aranda crushed righties (.203 ISO), but struggled to hit for power against lefties (.071 ISO, 1 HR in 98 PA). He did make slight gains against lefties overall though, earning free passes at a 12.2% clip, producing a .378 OBP and 111 wRC+. Aranda should continue facing lefty starters, though he’d likely hit lower in the lineup against them. Against righties, Aranda should bat third.

Former first overall MLB draft pick from 2020, Spencer Torkelson, played in 155 games (649 PA) in 2025 and 159 games (684 PA) in 2023. His 2024 season (92 games, 381 PA) was derailed by an inability to hit baseball and spending nearly half the season in Triple-A. Riley Greene and Torkelson are their most productive hitters. My projected plate appearances for Torkelson are low and I’ll have to readjust for the next update. He is very likely to earn real-life plate appearances closer to where Jason R.R. Martinez (FGDC) and Jordan Rosenblum (OOPSY) have him.

Health/Durability

There are very few concerns of health and durability in this group, except for Royce Lewis, who has been dealing with soft tissue and lower body ailments since becoming a major leaguer. Like Torkelson, Lewis was drafted first overall (2017), though he did not make his MLB debut until 2022. Lewis tore his ACL in 2022 and again in 2023, playing in just 58 games in his official rookie year. He also spent time on the IL that year with hamstring and oblique injuries. He missed half the 2024 season due to quad and abdominal injuries. Last season, he was slowed by two more hamstring injuries – one in late March and the other mid June. His lower body must have been feeling swell when he returned, because he stole nine bases on 10 attempts in the final month (98 PA) after swiping just three in his first 301 plate appearances. Lewis had yet another scare early this spring (side tightness) but was able to return a few days later. In some other dimension where he’s healthy, Lewis is a top 25 hitter, but in this league, his laundry list of injuries have rightfully kept his ADP and fantasy price down.

The rest of this cluster have mostly stayed healthy and have shown durability. Sal Stewart had surgery on his right wrist in 2024 while in High-A following an off-field accident. Alec Burleson had a couple of quick IL stints in 2023 (left thumb fracture) and 2025 (right wrist inflammation). Otherwise, this is a fairly sturdy group.

Skills/Categorical Contributions

Below are average 12-team roto values for the 2026 season using three models. Note that ATC is an aggregate system that may include OOPSY as part of their formula mix, but we’ll use OOPSY separately since their projected playing time is different than ATC’s.

Alec Burleson comes in as the best value of this group, fueled primarily by a projected batting average in the .270s.  Burleson hit .290 last season and boasts a respectable 83.4% career contact rate. His power metrics last year were around league-average (91 mph EV, 9.4% barrel, 43% hard-hit), but he has hit 18 and 21 home runs the last two seasons, and projects for around 20 this season. He’s the toughest guy in this cluster to punch out (career 13.6%). With 600+ plate appearances for the first time ever, Burleson can set career highs in runs and RBIs, producing 80 or more in each category. He may steal a few bases as well. He swiped five on six attempts in 2025 and nine on 13 attempts in 2024.

Jonathan Aranda hit 14 home runs in 422 plate appearances and flashed above-average power metrics (93 EV, 12.8% BRL, 54% HH). His contact rate (77%) was around league average, though he hit .316 with a .291 xBA. Models project his 2026 batting average in the .260-.270 range, a fair regression when we factor in Aranda’s high BABIP (.409), which inflated that average. He likely won’t hit .274 against lefties in a larger sample this season. OOPSY projects Aranda for .249 batting average, and that is why OOPSY’s value for Aranda is low relative to the other two models.

Kazuma Okamoto is the toughest of the group to project, as the 29-year-old will make MLB debut after eight seasons in the NPB. Models project Okamoto for a walk 9-10% walk rate and a 18-20% strikeout rate. OOPSY is least bullish on his strikeout rate (24.8%). With 550+ plate appearances, Okamoto should hit around 20-25 homers with around 135-165 combined R/RBI, with the distribution between the runs and runs batted in depending on where in the batting order he settles. He doesn’t run and isn’t expected to help in stolen bases.

Spencer Torkelson and Addison Barger are the two best bets for above-average power production of this group. Torkelson hit 31 home runs in each of his two full seasons. Barger hit 21 in 502 PAs last season and boasted an elite hard-hit rate (51%), a 91.7 mph average exit velocity and a 116.5 max EV. Barger flashed a .231 ISO against righties (115 wRC+) and a .120 (69 wRC+) against lefties.

Before 2025, Lewis rocked an elite frequency of round-trippers (16.6 AB/HR). He managed to hit only 13 of them last season (403 PA), which took his AB/HR up to around 20. His career EV (89.1), barrel rate (10%), and hard-hit rate (39.8%) are league-average. It’s why we won’t see any model project 25+ homers even though we know he’s capable of it if he stays healthy.

Sal Stewart produced well in Double-A (329 PA) and Triple-A (165 PA) last season: 78 R – 20 HR – 80 RBI – 17 SB – .309. He is one of the few fantasy first basemen who can produce double-digit swipes. Despite having fewer than 60 career plate appearances in the majors, Stewart feels like the corner with the most upside in this group and the one most likely to move up into the ADP tier above this one. On February 12, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reported that Stewart shed 26 pounds during the offseason.

Context of Team Offense

One thing in common is that none of these corners play on elite offenses – no one here is on the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets or Orioles. The Blue Jays scored the fourth most runs last year (798) and could be a top 10 run-producing crew again, but someone will have to step into Bo Bichette’s shoes. The Jays were 23rd in runs in 2024 when Bichette missed half the season. Okamoto and another year with Barger should help, but this lineup hinges on the consistency of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and they’ll need both George Springer and Daulton Varsho to stay healthy. Rogers Centre’s Park Factor is neutral (100).

The best offensive context among this group is that of the Reds. Great American Ball Park is an elite hitters’ park, ranking third in overall Park Factor (103) and second in HR Park Factor (123). Stewart currently projects to bat fifth behind Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suárez. It’s a righty-heavy lineup that Stewart can earn full-time at-bats in. It would not be shocking to see him smash his aggregate RBI projection of 66. Stewart had a strong success rate in stolen bases (84%, 27-of-32) and should have the green light so long as Elly and Suárez aren’t clogging up the base paths.

Comerica Park in Detroit is considered a pitchers’ park, but it’s Park Factor is neutral (100) as is its HR factor (99). Torkelson has 42 career road homers and 38 at Comerica in a similar number of plate appearances – 1,040 at home, 1,078 on the road. He typically whiffs at a 26-27 percent clip and produces substandard batting averages – .240, .219 and .233 over his first three seasons. Torkelson doesn’t have much lineup protection batting fifth with guys like Wenceel Pérez and Colt Keith behind him. The projected top-four of rookie Kevin McGonigle, Gleyber Torres, Kerry Carpenter (vs. RHP) and Riley Greene looks great on paper and the Tigers are favored to win the AL Central.

Aranda, Lewis and Burleson are on some of the weaker projected offensive teams in the league. Burleson and Aranda are both expected to hit third in their respective lineups. Lewis could work his way up with steady production and just staying healthy. The 2-5 after Byron Buxton looks exceptionally weak: Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, Trevor Larnach (4th vs. RHP) and Victor Caratini.

Verdict (with value grades, A-F)

Alec Burleson (B) is the best all-around value and has the highest floor. He gets an extra boost to his value for his dual (1B-OF) eligibility.

Kazuma Okamoto (B) feels like a risky proposition considering he’s never played in the majors and will have much to adjust to. He’s the one guy in this tier I’m most confident will produce a profit at his price tag.

Sal Stewart (B-) is the most volatile of the bunch as a rookie with very little big league experience. He has arguably the most upside and offers additional value in the stolen base category.  He’s the hitter most likely to surge into the tier above.

Jonathan Aranda (B-) officially broke out last season and has an above-average floor, but we should be careful projecting a plus batting average and assuming that he will play against left-handed pitchers all season.

Spencer Torkelson (C+) has massive batting average downside, but makes up for it with strong power production (30 HR, 85 RBI) for a hitter in this range. If you’re a BA snob, draft other sources of power.

Royce Lewis (C+) is incredibly polarizing because of his massive prospect pedigree and some epic production stretches that balance out with legitimate concerns about his ability to stay on the field.

Addison Barger (C) exhibited plus power against righties in his breakout season. I’m lower on him than the market and haven’t been drafting him because I prefer other corner infielders in this range. His struggles against lefties likely won’t go away this season, and it’s more difficult to roster platoon bats in shallow redraft leagues.

“Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you got ‘til it’s gone.”

Joni Mitchell may not be a roto savant, but even she might agree that the best part of the fantasy baseball season is research-and-draft season. Every day, from February until Opening Day, is so incredibly thrilling – nonstop spring training news, draft rankings adjustments, and player pool deep-dives – there’s always some rabbit hole of research to go down. As we continue studying and gaining confidence in the fresh player pool and a new year’s ADP, more questions arise, and the more work there is to be done.

Whether in NFBC or best ball contests, high-volume early drafters subconsciously form bad habits in draft rooms. We get too comfortable targeting and drafting the same players over and over. Conversely, we avoid players who have burned us in previous seasons and those we have some subjective bias against. Rarely do we deep dive and reassess those players because we’ve already made up our minds. That’s why it’s crucial to explore every nook and cranny of a positional tier. We have all fallen victim to draft room paralysis, where a decision between several similarly ranked shortstops or starting pitchers becomes gut-wrenching when we’re on the clock. This preseason column aims to help with those tough calls. We will explore some of the most confusing ADP clusters, by position, beyond the simple “I need to boost my batting average, so I’m taking this guy.”

Let’s dive into these ADP pockets logically and systematically, reviewing four analytical components of the players within each cluster. Since this specific article’s topic is starting pitchers, the components have been slightly adjusted:

Health and Durability
Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control
Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)
Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)

ADP Cluster 4: Starting Pitchers, Rounds 18-20

These are starting pitchers drafted in the 205-240 ADP range in the NFBC Online Championship (OC) over the last seven days.

• Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP 212)
• Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres (213)
• Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers (214)
• Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs (215)
• Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees (218)
• Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (227)
• Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks (229)
• Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers (239)

Health and Durability

Five of the eight are seasoned veterans over the age of 30 – Nola, Musgrove, Flaherty, Boyd, and Gallen. At 35, Boyd is the elder statesman of the group. Abbott (26) has averaged 25 starts over his first three seasons. Leiter was a rookie last season, starting 29 games. Weathers has been in the league since 2021, the year he set his career high for innings pitched (94.2). Weathers turned 26 in December, and Leiter will turn 26 in April.

Aaron Nola has been the poster boy of durability over the last decade. Since 2017, his first full season, no pitcher has thrown more innings than (1,527). Last season was his first time on the IL, missing just over three months with a right ankle injury. Before that, he only spent two brief stints on the COVID-IL, in 2021 and 2022.

Zac Gallen missed three-plus months in 2021 with various injuries (fractured forearm, elbow sprain, hamstring strain) and one month with a hamstring injury in 2024. Since 2022, Gallen is third in innings pitched (734) behind Logan Webb (820) and Framber Valdez (768).

Jack Flaherty has averaged nearly 29 starts over the last three seasons, despite a relatively low innings-per-season average of 155.2, though Flaherty hasn’t been on the IL since 2022.

Andrew Abbott missed six weeks with a shoulder injury in 2024 and nearly three weeks with a shoulder strain in 2025.

Before Matthew Boyd’s 179.2 innings in 2025, he spent 380 days on the IL since 2021, and last pitched a full season in 2019. Boyd dealt with a variety of serious arm-related injuries and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023.

Joe Musgrove missed half the season in 2023 (fractured big toe, right shoulder inflammation), half the season in 2024 (elbow), and all of last with Tommy John. Musgrove had his first bullpen session last August, has no strict innings cap for 2026, and sat at 94-95 with his fastball in his first exhibition game, against Team Great Britain on Wednesday.

Ryan Weathers has spent nearly 250 days on the IL over the last two seasons with finger, forearm and lat injuries. Weathers returned in the final month of 2025 to mixed results, but flashed strong velocity gains. Now with the New York Yankees, Weathers has our fantasy juices flowing in a late-February exhibition game where he topped out at 99.8 mph with his four-seam fastball.

Here are Jeff Zimmerman’s health grades in Eno Sarris’ pitching piece on The Athletic from February 3:

• Andrew Abbott (90%)
• Zac Gallen (90%)
• Jack Flaherty (86%)
• Jack Leiter (84%)
• Aaron Nola (81%)
• Matthew Boyd (72%)
• Ryan Weathers (65%)
• Joe Musgrove (N/A)

If I were to bet on anyone to pitch 180+ innings, it’s Nola, followed by Gallen. Musgrove won’t be restricted, but I’d be shocked if he threw more than 155 innings (which is OOPSY’s projection). ATC and THE BAT project 133, FGDC, ZiPS and Steamer are between 156-159 and I’ve got him for 150 at FTN. I have Nola for 181, and Gallen and Leiter in the 170s. Abbott, Boyd and Flaherty are in the 160s. Weathers (148, which might be generous) is the biggest red flag, given his health history and substantial uptick in velocity.

Skills: Arsenal, Stuff, Velocity, Command, Control

Below is a two-year sample for our cluster. SIERA is my preferred ERA indicator, and I’ve included and ERA-SIERA differential. Note that Abbott’s -1.21 differential signified being the “luckiest” of the group. Last season, that differential was 1.33 (2.87 ERA, 4.20 SIERA). Aaron Nola’s 0.63 differential was the unluckiest. He posted a 4.35 ERA where his SIERA of 3.72 was nearly in line with his career ERA (3.74 through 2024). Strikeout percentage and walk percentage are the preeminent stats for pitcher analysis. The various groundball rates are interesting to review as well. Notice the odd man out there – Abbott at 32.7%.

There are no truly elite control arms here, though Joe Musgrove (career 6% BB) and Aaron Nola (6.4%) are most reliable in this regard. Jack Leiter and Ryan Weathers have the nastiest stuff and throw the hardest. Leiter’s control has been his Kryptonite throughout his minor league days. Harnessing and reducing it will be the key for the former second-overall draft pick to fully break out and provide the most fantasy profit among starters in this range. Rangers’ new pitching coach Jordan Tiegs has been with the organization since 2019 and is considered to be a key driver in Leiter evolving as a big-league pitcher. It surely doesn’t hurt having veteran hurlers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi in your corner.

All of these arms except Musgrove rely primarily on their four-seam fastball (between 48-51% usage in 2025). Musgrove has the most diverse pitch mix. He gradually increased his cutter and slider usage over his last four seasons with the Padres. Flaherty is primarily a fastball-curveball-slider guy. His curve was outstanding in 2024 (.175 wOBA, .219 SLG, 40% K). He upped his usage on it in 2025 (from 21% to 25%) and punched batters out at a 41% clip, though it did not fare quite as well –  a .281 wOBA, .380 SLG.

Roto Ratio Expectations (ERA, WHIP)

Projections models and personal opinions will all differ, but the one thing we all seem to agree on is that Andrew Abbott is due for some major ratio regression. Abbott posted that magical 2.87 ERA last season, after two seasons of 3.77. FanGraphs models project ERAs between 4.17 (FGDC) and 4.65 (THE BAT X). The lone outlier is ZiPS at 3.80. The most baffling stats were Abbott’s home splits. The fly ball-leaning lefty managed a 2.39 ERA in his home park – extra hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Abbott did reduce his walk rate last season (from 8.9% to 6.3%), but remained a below-average in strikeouts (19.5% in 2024, 21.8% in 2025). His WHIP is likely to land somewhere in the 1.23-1.28 range. He posted a 1.15 WHIP in 2025, 1.30 in 2024 and 1.32 in 2023.

The usually dependable Zac Gallen was a tough player to roster last year. Hitters bashed him to the tune of a 5.40 ERA before the All-Star break, which he cleaned up in the final 2.5 months (3.97). He also served up home runs at an above-average rate (1.45 HR/9) after four consecutive seasons in the 0.73-0.94 range. His velocity didn’t drop last season, but his strikeout rate did – 21.5% after four seasons of 26%. Gallen is a difficult arm to project for 2026 as there is a wide band for ERA and WHIP. A 3.50/1.15 season probably wouldn’t surprise us. Neither would 4.25/1.25. My personal expectations for him are right in the middle.

Jack Leiter throws certifiable heat. His 3.86 ERA was respectable, but a 1.28 WHIP, partially fueled by a 10.8% walk rate, was not. Ryan Weathers throws just as hard, but has done a better job at limiting free passes, keeping his walk rate under 7% over his 125 innings since 2024. These are the two highest-upside pitchers in the cluster, though each come with the most risk and the risk with Weathers is higher, especially as his draft price continues to rise.

Matthew Boyd managed a splendid 3.20 ERA despite higher peripherals (4.09 SIERA, 4.22 xFIP). Boyd was especially solid in his home starts:

• Home: 89.2 IP – .257 wOBA – 2.51 ERA – 0.90 WHIP – 23.2% K – 4.1% BB
• Road: 90 IP – .315 wOBA – 3.90 ERA – 1.28 WHIP – 19.9% K – 7.4% BB

Boyd was mostly disaster proof before the All-Star break, allowing no more than three earned runs in 18 of 19 starts. He allowed four or more in six of his final 12 starts. He did not allow more than five runs in any of his starts, and there’s something to be said about drafting boring, late-round veteran arms who reduce our fantasy staff’s volatility. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boyd followed up with another sub-3.50 ERA, but it’s most likely to end up in the 3.65-3.90 range. We can work with that.

Joe Musgrove has the highest ratio upside of the group. His home park is a hit-suppressor factory and he’ll line up for several starts against subpar offenses in his division (COL, ARZ). Among starting pitchers with 500 or more innings pitched since 2021, Musgrove’s 3.20 ERA is tied for ninth lowest. Just stay healthy, Joe.

Team Context: Defense, Bullpen, Run Support (Wins)

Poor Jack Flaherty finished last season with an 8-15 record for a team that was 12 games over .500 and almost won their division. Matthew Boyd’s Cubs won five more games (92 to 87) and Boyd started 31 games just as Flaherty did, but ended up with better run support overall and a 14-8 record. Reviewing Flaherty’s game logs helps paint the picture. He served up at least four earned runs in 9-of-31 starts, including three horrific outings (7 ER vs. CIN, 8 ER at TB, 8 ER vs. KC). The Cubs boasted a top-tier defense last season and project for much of the same in 2026. The Tigers are about league average. This information adds additional insight to their differences in the wins category last season, and likely portends our 2026 expectations.

Aaron Nola would be the safest bet for most wins among this cluster. Ironically, high win totals have eluded the him. Despite six consecutive seasons between 32 and 34 starts, Nola has won more than 14 games in a season once – 17 in 2018. Among pitchers in this cluster, Nola’s Phillies have the highest projected win total (89.5), and the Cubs are next (88.5). The Diamondbacks have the lowest (79.5), and it doesn’t help that the Diamondbacks bullpen was a dumpster fire last year (third worst) and don’t expect A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez back anytime soon. It’s doubtful that Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald hold down the fort in the meanwhile. Wins are the least projectable standard roto category, so we’ll all probably just laugh about it come October if Abbott wins 16 of 33 starts and Nola just 9 of 31.

Recommendation (with target grade)

Aaron Nola (B) – Buy back in on the “King of Even Years”. Plus strikeouts, a low walk rate, decent defense, and good run support from a team with a high win total.

Andrew Abbott (D) – Tough home park for pitchers, a tough hitting division, below-average strikeouts, and the Regression Monster knocking on his door. I’ll pass.

Matthew Boyd (C) – Ceiling is low, but the floor is stable. On a team with a strong offense and top-notch defense of mostly grounded veterans. Likely a pass, but I’d draft him 1-2 rounds after his ADP.

Joe Musgrove (B+) – Intrigued, but if his spring continues to flow flawlessly, the price will rise to the 140-160 range and our margin for profit has sunk. Currently a target.

Jack Flaherty (C+) – Derives value from strikeout output potential based on recent seasons flirting with the 30% K mark. Too much volatility in his profile for me to stomach.

Zac Gallen (C) – Defense projects among the top five, but the bullpen seems wonky, offense is weaker, and Gallen has become the human rollercoaster. Not a target but would consider him.

Ryan Weathers (B) – New high velocity, health history, and durability are all concerning factors. Ideal breakout candidate based on skills and new environment. Beware the rising price. I’d consider.

Jack Leiter (A-) – Ironically, the most affordable per current ADP is my favorite target. Healthy, elite pedigree, killer stuff, pitcher-friendly home park, and the boys in his ear (deGrom, Eovaldi)

The most important takeaway is one that hasn’t been introduced yet – that there are over a dozen starters in the Rounds 21-25 range who are comparable to the arms in this cluster. If we’re comfortable with those later targets, then we don’t have to spend much time shopping in this range. To recap, Leiter is a strong target, Musgrove and Weathers are also, albeit the latter comes with a high risk factor. Boyd, Flaherty and Gallen are considerations, but only after their ADPs. I won’t have Andrew Abbott on any of my teams this season.

With the Super Bowl behind us and pitchers and catchers already in camp, fantasy draft season is officially in full swing. That means it is time to update the Average Draft Position (ADP) data we use on FanGraphs.

FanGraphs pulls in ADP data from the NFBC and displays it in a few places on the site where it can be useful to our readers:

• Auction Calculator outputs
• Fantasy Player Rater outputs
• “Fantasy” tab on projections leaderboards
• Tables in our rankings columns

As of today, the first three will all show NFBC ADP for Online Championships. ADP shown on rankings articles will update when those rankings are next updated and this will be noted in the changelog on each piece.

Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

Introduction

In 2018, I introduced a game theory approach for comparing baseball projection systems. Proudly, the original article was nominated for Baseball Article of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). Today, I am proud to release the same in-depth research for the sixth consecutive year!

This is not a typical statistical analysis. There won’t be any Chi-squared tests, nor will I calculate Type I or Type II errors. Forget about mean squared errors or any hypothesis testing.

My methodology does not incorporate a statistical model. Instead, it looks to determine the profitability potential of each projection system by simulating what would have happened in a fantasy auction draft. It games the projections.

What do I mean by this?

Let’s think about what happens in a real fantasy [pun intended] baseball draft auction.

Suppose that Jared Cross himself (or anyone exclusively using the Steamer projections) walks into a rotisserie auction prior to the 2023 baseball season. Let’s say that Jared decides to participate in an NFBC auction league. Mr. Cross would take his projections and run a valuation method through them to obtain auction prices. He would generate a list that looked something like this …

Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here. Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Read the rest of this entry »