Just when you thought Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was officially entering his prime years, he takes a step back, suffering a .032 point wOBA slide. A decline in power fueled the decline, as both his ISO and HR/FB rate hit their lowest marks since his 2019 debut. The rest of his skill set remained stable and strong, though I would still love to see a higher FB%, along with a higher rate of his fly balls being pulled. That said, even without such improvements, you have to think his power rebounds and he’ll be closer to 30 homers than 20 homers this upcoming season. He remains the clear-cut top first baseman in my eyes.

I can’t yet picture Pete Alonso donning a uniform other than the Mets, but the park switch might be a slight positive for his BABIP and bigger positive for his HR/FB rate. He’s been remarkably consistent throughout his career, with the only real fluctuations coming from a BABIP that plunged to just .205 in 2023, and then spiked to .305 in 2025. His HardHit% and Barrel% both spiked to new highs in 2025, but he failed to translate those gains into a higher HR/FB rate thanks to a career worst flyball Pull%. There’s little reason to expect anything different than what he’s done recently, but 126 RBI is not happening again.

Bryce Harper has continued to maintain a remarkably stable skill set, with the only blemish last season coming from a decline in BABIP. That mark dropped to its lowest over a full season since 2018. It was likely driven by a drop in LD%, his lowest over a full season since 2016. Everything here looks pretty good, except for a maxEV that is slowly falling. As usual, it all comes down to health.

My, oh my, Nick Kurtz made his MLB debut on April 23 after just 151 minor league Pas and did this?! He recorded the 29th best wOBA by a rookie with at least 450 PAs going all the way back to 1871 (1,131 qualifiers). However, red flags include a strikeout rate just over 30% and a .371 xwOBA that was meaningfully lower than his actual .419 mark. Then again, he’ll certainly accumulate at least 100 more PAs if healthy. Regression is almost surely a lock, but how much is the question.

Aside from a jump in BABIP that reached a career high, this was almost a carbon copy of Matt Olson‘s 2024 performance. Of course, these last two seasons have been a far cry from his incredible 2023, which is looking more and more like a career year that he will never come close to approaching again. The skills remain quite strong, though, with the only red flag coming from a career worst flyball Pull%. If he could drive that back toward his career mark, he’ll have a chance to return to the 20% HR/FB rate plateau and flirt with 40 home runs.

Freddie Freeman‘s highest strikeout rate since 2016 didn’t affect his performance, thanks to a BABIP rebound after posting his second lowest mark in 2024. That increased strikeout rate was driven by a spike in SwStk%, which combined with his lowest xwOBA since tracking began in 2015, are causes for concern as he enters his age 36 season. The power still looks good, though, but his days as a lock for a .300 batting average might be over.

Unsurprisingly, Josh Naylor‘s power dipped right back down to historical levels after career best output in 2024. He’ll now play a full season calling the league’s worst park for left-handed offense home, though he did post a .431 wOBA at T-Mobile Park after his arrival. Of course, the elephant in the room is the 30 steals, five more than he had totaled in his entire career previously. He succeeded on about 94% of his attempts (and 100% with the Mariners), so does he keep running? If he does slow down, how much regression should we expect? These are the questions that keep me up at night.

The move to the Yankees and one of the best home run parks in baseball for left-handers didn’t exactly ignite a return to Cody Bellinger‘s peak power years. He did, however, enjoy a strong fantasy season and his delicious combination of a low strikeout rate and high FB% fueled his third highest home run total. I don’t quite see all the stars aligning again, but I still feel like there’s ample upside to his league average HR/FB rate.

Rafael Devers enjoyed yet another strong performance, despite his highest strikeout rate over a full season. Unfortunately, he’ll now be calling home for a full season one of the league’s worst parks for left-handed batters. Devers’ historical BABIP, HR/FB, and wOBA splits followed the Fenway Park factors, so Oracle Park could hamper his BABIP and reduce his HR/FB rate even further. He does get a nice boost in OBP leagues, though, depending on how real that walk rate spike was.

Pulling his fly balls has never been Yandy Díaz’s thing, but he managed to record a career high HR/FB rate despite posting a career low flyball Pull%. With his extreme groundball tendency, his home run total will continue to be difficult to predict, making him an annual risk to deliver just an empty batting average.

I have salivated over Vinnie Pasquantino‘s skill set for a while now and the fantasy breakout came in 2025. He seemingly pumped up the power at the expense of his strikeout rate, and his Statcast metrics suggest there’s still additional power upside left. Sadly, he calls the worst park for left-handed dingers home, which definitely caps his output, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still brighter days ahead. The lack of steals and low BABIP hurt, but perhaps he’ll luck into a .300+ latter mark and surprise us with a .300 batting average.

Tyler Soderstrom‘s performance was a near mirror image of his 2024 partial season, with the exception coming from a significantly higher BABIP. The power is certainly real, but his home run output was capped by a low FB%. He also should really be pulling a higher rate of his flyballs. With multiple paths to a higher long ball total, 30 dingers are easily within reach, but I wouldn’t bank on a positive contribution from his batting average again.

Playing his way into a regular, rotating between first base, DH, and catcher, Ben Rice enjoyed a true breakout year. With excellent contact ability for a power hitter, a flyball tendency, and elite Statcast metrics, there might even be serious upside from here. Heck, he actually underperformed his xwOBA by .038 points! The risk of falling into a strong side platoon role will remain, as he has posted just an 88 wRC+ against left-handers over his short career, but a higher 104 mark in 2025. Oh, and since he still qualifies at catcher, you’re probably starting him there the vast majority of the time.

Nope, I definitely did not foresee 30+ home runs for Michael Busch in what was a strong side platoon role. Impressively, he enjoyed a massive Barrel% surge, ranking 11th in the metric among qualified batters, while also increasing his flyball Pull%. There were improvements across the board here, so the performance looks supported. However, can he maintain such improvements? I would guess he holds onto a portion of his gains and finishes somewhere between 2024 and 2025, but slightly closer to his 2025 results.

Another first base eligible catcher who you’re likely to slot into the weaker position slot, Salvador Perez hit the second most home runs of his career…at age 35. This guy just doesn’t slow down! The skills here all look quite stable, and the only blemish was a BABIP plunge, which appears to be a fluke. He’ll probably suffer some age-related decline at some point, or get hurt and miss a chunk of time, but there’s nothing suggesting any of that is imminent.

For a guy slapped with such underwhelming Hit and Game/Raw Power scouting grades, Sal Stewart has been awfully impressive offensively in the minors. He enjoyed a massive power spike over a small Triple-A sample after his promotion, and that carried over during his cup of coffee with the Reds. He doesn’t strike out often, walks enough, has recorded excellent Statcast metrics, and even swiped 17 bases in 20 tries. Without a clear position, his playing time isn’t as secure as you’d like. However, Gavin Lux’s departure gives him a clear shot at regular DH PAs, and I love the upside here. Update: Now Eugenio Suarez’s signing clouds his PT outlook once again.

Jake Burger‘s first season with the Rangers didn’t exactly go as planned, as he disappointed with the bat, leading to a short minor league demotion, and missed time to injury. His HR/FB rate collapsed, despite stable Statcast power metrics, thanks to a near halving of his flyball Pull%, which is truly bizarre to observe. Assuming that mark rebounds, his power should return, making him a strong rebound candidate.

One of the most anticipated debuts of 2025, Jac Caglianone ended up as a bust over a small sample size thanks to just a .239 wOBA and over a month missed due to a strained hamstring. He rose quickly through the minors after being drafted sixth overall in 2024, posting an absurd .446 wOBA in the minors in 2025, including an even crazier .478 mark at Triple-A. The good news here is that the underlying skills in the Majors were actually pretty good and he underperformed his xwOBA by a ridiculous .079 points. Calling the worst park for left-handed dingers home ain’t great, but he should rebound dramatically during his sophomore campaign.

Injury cut into what was shaping up to be a really strong season for Jonathan Aranda. Unfortunately, essentially all of the impressive performance could be chalked up to a .409 BABIP, which easily led baseball among hitters with at least 400 PAs. Though he does have a history of high BABIP marks in the minors, the chances of another .400+ mark, particularly over a full season, are almost nil. On the bright side, his Statcast metrics suggest power upside, especially if his flyball Pull% rises toward league average.

After taking a season off, the former top prospect version of Spencer Torkelson returned! His results were almost identical to his 2023 season, which begs the question of what actually happened in 2024. His old scouting grades and current Statcast power metrics do suggest there should be some additional HR/FB rate upside here. That could be a boon for his home run total given his extreme FB%. Sadly, the batting average is unlikely to ever be a positive given consistently low BABIP marks thanks to those flyball ways.

A whopping 14 home runs over the final two months of the season saved Christian Walker from disappointing in that department. His Statcast power metrics do appear stable, so there should be no worries about the distribution of his home runs in 2025. What is concerning is a SwStk% that skyrocketed, driving a spike in strikeout rate, both to career worsts. Heading into his age 35 season, a rebound might not be in the cards, meaning a reduction in counting stats and another weak batting average.

Alec Burleson‘s skill set reminds me a lot of Pasquantino’s, but the former clearly owns inferior raw power. Still, there’s probably a bit of power upside here, but he’ll need to reverse his flyball Pull% that has been trending in the wrong direction and sits well above league average.

The catcher eligibility is officially gone after Willson Contreras served as the Cardinals’ regular first baseman. Predictably, he recorded a career high PAs, which also led to career bests in both runs scored and RBI, though notably not home runs. That’s because his HR/FB rate slid to the second lowest of his career, despite strong and stable Statcast power metrics. Heck, his flyball Pull% even jumped to a career best! So the HR/FB rate decline seems like a clear fluke, which means we could see him make a run at exceeding his current career high of 24 homers. The trade to the Red Sox should be a positive for his HR/FB rate as he struggled at Busch Stadium and Fenway Park’s right-handed HR park factor is a bit less pitcher friendly.

Arriving from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Kazuma Okamoto joins the Blue Jays, which means he’ll call home a park that has inflated right-handed home runs and suppressed strikeouts. While Okamoto’s HR/FB rate has been good, his home run potential is increased thanks to an extreme penchant for flyballs, along with improved strikeout rate and SwStk% marks. He owns no speed, so the hope here is that he’ll maintain that flyball tilt and the home run total will be more than enough to offset historically mediocre BABIP marks that could hamper his batting average.

Munetaka Murakami is a Chicago White Sock! That’s a sentence I did not expect to type. The upside is obvious — with 70/70 Game Power, 80/80 Raw Power, and ISO marks of .392 and .390 in 2022 and 2025, the power is immense. The downside, though, is he fails to make enough contact to actually take advantage of those power skills. His SwStk% has risen for four straight seasons, while his Z-Contact% is bad, very bad. He does walk a lot, which could make him a far better risk in OBP formats. Outside of such leagues, and in the format these rankings are based on, he’s the epitome of a lottery ticket.

Luis Arraez‘s first sub-.300 batting average since 2021 is a reminder how risky BABIP-reliant hitters are, as that BABIP fell below .300 for the first time in his career. With limited power and marginal stolen prowess, he loses much of his luster if he isn’t contributing major value in batting average. Luckily, he’s one of the few names who would call a move to pitcher friendly Oracle Park a positive, as the park has been one of the best for left-handed singles and non-home run hits over the past three seasons.

Gosh, Nolan Schanuel‘s skill set is so intriguing with a double digit walk rate, few swings and misses leading to a low strikeout rate, and an excellent batted ball type profile. And yet, the production simply hasn’t been there, thanks to a below average BABIP and underwhelming power. One has to wonder if the power will ever manifest, as his Statcast metrics have been poor, including ranking just 216th out of 226 in average bat speed in 2025.

The consistency continues for Alec Bohm, which is both appreciated and disappointing at the same time. We keep waiting for a major power spike, but his Barrel% has been stuck in the 5.7%-6.8% range, which has kept his HR/FB rate pretty stable. Perhaps that surge will finally occur at age 29? If not, at least he remains a positive batting average contributor.

Kyle Manzardo somehow managed to score just 47 runs, while hitting 27 home runs. That fun fact either says a lot about his surrounding lineup’s inability to knock him in, his exteme lack of speed (he ranked just 529th out of 579 in Sprint Speed), or a combination of both. Other than that disappointing total, he pretty much performed as expected. Keep in mind that with a career 79 wRC+ against left-handers, he’s likely to end up on the strong side of a platoon, hampering his counting stats.

All Andrew Vaughn needed was to get out of Chicago, eh?! He posted a .373 wOBA with the Brewers after a .230 mark with the White Sox, and nothing higher than a .327 mark over a full season previously. His walk rate surged, strikeout rate dramatically improved, and his BABIP skyrocketed. His power, though, didn’t get a boost like his other skills and results, as he largely posted the same Statcast metrics. His new home park is far better for right-handed home runs and those Statcast metrics typically match with a significantly higher HR/FB rate than he’s posted, so there’s hope for better results.

Josh Bell joins his sixth team since 2022, becoming the Twins’ new regular first baseman. He’s coming off his third highest xwOBA, thanks to a career best strikeout rate, while a career high FB% is a good sign for his home run potential, if repeated, of course. He also posted the second highest HardHit% and Barrel% of his career, but those surges didn’t impact his HR/FB rate much. We still haven’t seen the peak power he last showed back in 2021, but even at age 33, it appears his power skills remain intact.

Ernie Clement makes fantastic contact…and that’s about it. He has oddly been a fly ball hitter the last two seasons despite owning limited power and that has hampered his BABIP. He could be of more use in batting average if he optimized his batted ball type profile, so we’ll see if that ever happens. For now, he looks like a light contributor across the board, but with risk of losing playing time and becoming merely a super utility guy.

After disappointing offensively in previous chances, former top prospect Miguel Vargas finally completed a full season in the Majors and hit respectably. His batted ball type profile is fascinating, as he has been an extreme flyball hitter, despite posting only mid-single digit HR/FB rates. However, his Statcast power metrics suggest much higher marks, so there’s seemingly some additional home run upside. It’s too bad all those flies have crushed his BABIP and batting average.

It’s been two seasons so far for former top prospect Colt Keith and he has yet to deliver much fantasy value. His Statcast power metrics did surge in 2025,, but his HR/FB rate only increased marginally. Without much speed, he’ll need to recapture the power he showed back in the minors. Don’t forget he’s entering just his age 24 season, so he’s got plenty of time for the power to reappear.

Ryan O’Hearn joins the Pirates and figures to serve as the team’s starting DH. Since he first broke out with the Orioles in 2023, he hasn’t shown much of an opposing handedness split, which eliminates the risk he’ll fall into a short-side platoon role. He’s shown some solid all-around skills in recent seasons, but simply doesn’t possess the power necessary to be an impact fantasy corner guy, as his Barrel% has hovered around league average most of his career. The move to Pittsburgh’s PNC Park won’t help any in that department, as it has been one of the toughest parks for left-handed home runs.

Nolan Gorman heads into the season as the regular third baseman with no risk of being platooned given identical career wOBA marks against each pitcher handedness. His power cratered last year, but his extreme FB% should magnify any sort of rebound there. Unfortunately, all those strikeouts really cap his counting stat upside and have crushed his batting average.

Finally, the lineup around Spencer Horwitz looks much better, which should benefit his PAs and counting stats. He has shown pretty good plate discipline over his two seasons, with double digit walk rates and high teen strikeout rates. That, combined with an above average BABIP, have resulted in positive batting average contributions. However, he owns limited power, and his Statcast metrics don’t hint at a spike anytime soon. With no speed, you’re just closing your eyes and hoping he suddenly discovers a power strike at age 28.

Gavin Sheets enjoyed his first season with the Padres, as he posted his highest BABIP and HR/FB rate. All of his Statcast power metrics spiked and actually suggest higher than the low double digit HR/FB rate he recorded. With decent other skills across the board, he should at least be as good as he was in 2025. However, his history shouldn’t be totally ignored, which makes him a risk if you’re counting on him to remain a starter all season.

A career best walk rate led to Jake Cronenworth’s highest wOBA since his first full season in 2021, but it failed to deliver positive fantasy value. With little speed, middling power, and a weak batting average, he’s a classic accumulator whose value is strictly tied to his everyday role.

Is this the year that Jared Triolo reaches 500 PAs? His strikeout rate has dramatically improved the last two seasons, he’s got a touch of pop, and speed. A full season could net double digits in both home runs and steals. But with a career .298 wOBA and projections for not much more, he’ll need his above average defense to be enough to give his middling bat in the lineup.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to be a divisive player in drafts. First, he’s way better in Roto using batting average with the extra emphasis on stolen bases and no downgrade for a sub-300 OBP. He has the potential to be a platoon bat(career .769 OPS vs RHP, .591 OPS vs LHP), but his elite defense will keep him on the field. Running some comps, they point to a career similar to Javier Báez and Rougned Odor.

Brent Rooker is no longer an enigma; he’s a steady source of 30 HR or more with 180 Runs+RBI. This past season, he seems to have traded off a hit of power (91.9 avgEV to 90.7) for more contact (68% Contact% to 72%). He even throws in a half dozen stolen bases.

Which James Wood will show up this season? The one who hit 24 HR with a .915 OPS in the first half or the one with just 7 HR and a .690 OPS (39% K%) in the second half. I dug and could not find why his Contact% dropped from 72% to 65%. Think of the hype if the halves were switched. Wood’s bat speed and the subsequent batted balls are comparable to the league’s best hitters. Depending on his Contact%, his range of outcomes could be a 50 HR hitter or a frustration who will dominate for a few weeks but be a drag for the rest of the season (see Oneil Cruz).

After three straight seasons of 30+ home runs, Yordan Alvarez’s injured ankle caused him to miss most of last season. I’m worried it’s not 100% healthy, since the team says he will be the primary DH. Besides the injury, his home run per flyball rate has dropped in each of the last three seasons (25% to 21% to 16% to 10%). High risk play. Note: Could be Util-only in league with a 20-game minimum.

Jackson Chourio has almost the exact same stats over the last two seasons, down to the seven caught stealings, four triples, and three hit-by-pitches. Some growth should be expected from the 21-year-old, but how much and when are the keys. One issue is that he might be slowing down with a 0.5 ft/s loss in Sprint Speed and only six stolen base attempts in the second half compared to 22 in the first half. In 2024, he was the 40th overall player and 59th last year, according to our player rater. That’s a nice floor. The key will be if he can improve on the 20 HR power AND continue to steal bases.

The arrows are heading in all directions with Wyatt Langford. He improved his power (43% HardHit% to 48%), but his contact rate got worse (80% Contact% to 76%). He stole more bases (19 SB to 22) with a slower Sprint Speed (29.8 ft/s to 28.9). Additionally, he missed time twice for oblique injuries while playing through them before taking time off. He quit running as much in the second half (15 SB vs 7), and maybe he didn’t want to re-injure the oblique. It’s tough to evaluate him with so many moving parts. The 24-year-old will be useful, but the way and amount are still up in the air.

Byron Buxton finally stayed “healthy” (126 games, highest since 2017) and posted the season everyone hoped he could (35 HR, 24 SB, .264 AVG). Besides health, there was no real skill improvement or degradation.

Jarren Duran regressed a bit after a career year in 2024, but still hit 24 HR with 24 SB. I’m not sure there is another gear for the 29-year-old. He seemed to sell out for power, with his average exit velocity up 1 mph and his average launch angle up 2.5 degrees. At the same time, his Contact% dropped over 4% points.

The projections love Michael Harris II as a 20/20 talent with a positive batting average. Those projections are of no help to the fantasy managers who started the 24-year-old when he hit .210/.234/.317 with 6 HR in the first half last season. Around the All-Star game, he changed his swing and hit .299/.315/.530 in the second half. One factor keeping his fantasy value down is that he’ll be hitting at the bottom of the Braves lineup, thereby suppressing his plate appearances.

Christian Yelich hit over 20 HR (29) for the first time since 2019. At 34-years-old, no one seems to be buying a breakout with a full season, career high 26% K%, and career-low 90.2 mph Average Exit Velocity. Besides not hitting the ball as hard, his 2 degree Launch Angle was the lowest since his rookie season. Note: He might only be Utility-only in leagues that require 20 games for a position.

Kyle Schwarber knocks the crap out of the ball. Since the shift was banned, he’s been posting better batting averages, removing his one weakness.

Cody Bellinger raised his launch angle and hit for more power, leading to a six-year high of 29 HR. The problem is that he’s had similar power strokes, and they’ve quickly disappeared. Additionally, last season was the first time he accumulated over 600 PA since 2019. With such variance, pay for the projection, knowing the results are hopefully better but could be way worse.

After a career-best season, George Springer is hoping for a repeat, and if so, it would be a historic first.

Usually, top prospects get all the love, but that doesn’t seem to be the case with Roman Anthony going after pick 50. While he only hit 8 HR in just over 300 PA, signs point to elite power. He led the league with a 60% HardHit%. He was fifth in the league with a 94.5% avgEV. He hit 27 Barrels, but only 8 of them went for HR (normally 1 HR for every two Barrels). The 21-year-old’s only weakness was a 28% K%.Upside of 30 HR.

After being a speed-only option in his first two seasons, Maikel Garcia hit 16 HR in 2025. He didn’t hit the ball harder, but he started elevating (6 deg to 10 deg LA, 49% GB% to 43% GB%) and pulling (33% Pull% to 39% Pull%) the ball more. Hopefully, he keeps or improves on those gains. In most leagues, he will only qualify at third base.

The last memory of Andy Pages is of his post-season struggles (.078 AVG) and benching. I examined similar players and found that a horrible postseason doesn’t affect the hitter’s next season’s production (article coming later this week). The market disagrees on his projection (.255 AVG, 25 HR, 10 SB), so take the discount and roster away.

Steven Kwan is a consistent source of batting average and steals with at least double-digit home runs.

After a breakout 2024 campaign, Lawrence Butler took a step back, likely because of a couple of knee injuries, one chronic. Additionally, he started getting platooned to end the season. Mute expectations because his talent and playing time could be at risk.

Seiya Suzuki’s power took a step forward with 35 HR being a possible outcome if he can stay on the field. The rest of his profile shows no signs of aging.

Jose Altuve posted a career-low (excluding 2020) batting average (.262 AVG) along with his lowest stolen base total in four years (10 SB). He posted nearly the same line in three of the past four seasons. I expect the same or worse results as he ages.

While his surface stats don’t show it, Ceddanne Rafaela took a major step forward in 2025.

Boring, old Brandon Nimmo has shown no signs of slowing down, and the change in home park could boost his production.

While Ian Happ’s hitting skills should repeat, his stolen base skills are deteriorating, and 5 SB might be his upside.

Heliot Ramos has settled into 20 HR to 25 HR with a half dozen stolen bases and a .260 AVG. He was able to post a career-low 23% K% to help keep his batting average up. Otherwise, he hasn’t changed, and he become a consistent productive player.

The 2025 season was a turbulent season for Brenton Doyle on and off the field. I’m going to give him a mulligan and rewind to his 2025 projections.

Daylen Lile may not have one standout trait, but he doesn’t seem to have a weakness besides being on the Nationals. Projections have him around a 15/15 guy with a .270 AVG (Jeremy Pena/Otto Lopez production, but 100 picks later). He ended the season hitting cleanup and sat against just one of the last seven lefties the team faced. Nice sleeper.

Over his first three seasons, Noelvi Marte showed several different versions of himself, with any narrative having an explanation. His value is tough to set beyond a basic projection.

If Ramón Laureano can keep the contact and power gains he made in 2025 while playing a full season, he becomes a solid sleeper

TJ Friedl is a high-variance play in home runs and stolen bases. When looking at his projections, I would take the over in home runs and the under in stolen bases.

Jasson Domínguez has struggled to live up to the hype surrounding him. In 2025, he was better than an average hitter (103 wRC+), but wasn’t good enough to crack a healthy Yankees outfield. With Bellinger gone, he is back in the outfield mix even after being the fifth-worst fielding outfielder according to Baseball Savant’s Out-Above-Average. (Note: As of December 18th, he is just hitting .184/.304/.263 in the Dominican Winter League).

I was fully invested in Jackson Merrill last season, and that idea did not go as planned. After being a five-category contributor in 2024 (24 HR, 16 SB, .292 AVG), he was barely replacement-level in 2025 (16 HR, 1 SB, .264 AVG). He ranked as the 59th outfielder, just ahead of Gavin Sheets. Before a June concussion, he was batting .304/.349/.474 with 5 HR and 1 SB (2 CS) in 186 PA. After returning from the concussion and until an ankle injury, he hit just .219/.286/.354. And when he returned from the ankle injury, he hit .275/.320/.626 with 7 HR in September. I’m not sure the steals will return, so pay or a .280 AVG with 25 HR. A Yandy Díaz or Corey Seager clone.

With the trade of Willson Contreras to the Red Sox, Alec Burleson takes over first base duties for the Cardinals. The 27-year-old improved both his Contact% (83% to 84%) and Hardhit% (41% to 43%) last year. The increase in hard contact led to a career-high .290 AVG and .169 ISO. While he didn’t get platooned to end last season, it is a possibility (career .606 OPS vs LHP, .775 OPS vs RHP).

If Bryan Reynolds’s shoulder heals, I could see him return to 25 HR and double-digit steals instead of the projected 20 HR/6 SB. I want to see him playing in the field and attempting steals in Spring Training to show that his shoulder is no longer an issue.

A shoulder injury ruined the first two months of Spencer Steer’s season, but he turned it around. With his current projections, I might expect a higher batting average and home runs but fewer stolen bases.

Riley Greene has transitioned into a solid power option against righties (32 HR vs RHP, 4 HR vs LHP). Even as the 25-year-old struggled against lefties (career .680 OPS vs LHP, .825 OPS vs RHP), the Tigers started him in 157 games. The 30 HR power is legit, but he has a couple of flaws. He struckout 31% of the time last year as he struggled with fastballs (12% SwStr%). Additionally, I don’t expect him to start stealing bases with his Sprint Speed dropping from 28.1 ft/s (71st percentile) to 27.7 ft/s (59th percentile) to 26.7 ft/s (31st percentile) over the past three seasons.

Teoscar Hernandez is more well-rounded than just a power bat by chipping in a few stolen bases and ~.250 AVG. The 33-year-old’s power has been on a steady five-year decline. If the decline continues, he could be closer to 20 HR than his projected mid-to-high 20 HR totals.

Jo Adell may have improved his plate discipline enough to be a consistent home run threat.

Taylor Ward is projected for ~25 HR, 5 SB, and a .245 AVG. I could see bumping the home run number up to 30, but not any more.

Kyle Stowers turned his career around with career bests in power and contact metrics. He should be good for 25 HR to 35 HR. His batting average could dip as his BABIP regresses downward, but at least the average isn’t a major drain like in his first two seasons.

After coming off shoulder surgery, Daulton Varsho traded off contact for more power. He could be a source of 30+ HR and dozen or so stolen bases but a drain in batting average.

Over the past three seasons, Mike Trout has averaged 18 HR, 3 SB, and a .232 AVG. Those results are similar to those of Max Kepler and Kody Clemens. And I’m not sure of Trout’s upside at this point. He’s not running. A ballooning strikeout rate (32% last season) limits his batting average. Maybe managers will latch onto his late-season swing changes to make him more than a bench streamer.

Trent Grisham improved in two ways to help him the most: make more contact (80% Contact%, 2nd highest of his career) and hit the ball harder (career-high Barrel% and HardHit%). The 34 HR were double his previous high in 2022, and now all signs point to some downward regression. His 51 Barrels would normally produce 27 HR. Projections tag him with ~25 HR. Baseball Savant has him with 27.9 xHR, and had him with 29 HR if all his batted balls were in Yankee Stadium. Also, I would not expect any stolen bases after he stole a total of four over the past two seasons. I see him around a .230 AVG, 25 HR, and 2 SB.

Fantasy managers need to have a reality check when it comes to Jac Caglianone. Since he’s only shown the ability to hit for power in the majors, he’s just an accumulator. There is no hope for more than 1 or 2 SB, but he could be a positive contributor in batting average. Or he could repeat 2025 and be nearly unplayable. Gamble away.

Jakob Marsee should be amongst the league leaders in stolen bases with double-digit home runs if given a full-time role. The biggest disagreement will be with his batting average. Will it be closer to the projections, .200 AVG to .220 AVG, or the nearly .300 AVG hitter he was in 2025.

Jung Hoo Lee: Before the season began, Lee dealt with a back issue that flared up in mid-June. His back could have bothered him for a while but after resting at the All-Star break, he hit .293/.345/.414 from then on. While he should post a great batting average, all signs point to 10 HR and 10 SB. Also, he could end up getting platooned with a career .610 OPS against lefties and .756 OPS against righties.

During his age-30 season, Randy Arozarena may have posted his career year with highs in plate appearances (709 PA) and home runs (27 HR). At the same time, his .238 AVG was a drag. Besides the $7 he earned in 2024, he’s earned at least $17 in every season since 2021. Steady add.

While Luis Robert has been a 30/30 “full-time” player over his career, he doesn’t play enough to reach that level. Roster only if getting an extreme discount.

The 32-year-old Adolis Garcia has struggled for two straight seasons while dealing with several injuries. He’s going to need to stop and reverse several negative trends as he ages into his mid-30’s.

As Dylan Crews enters in age-24 season, he needs to show improvement with his power and/or contact skills to take a step forward to be at least a league-average hitter (77 wRC+ in ’15). His steals can be valuable as long as he’s not a drain in other categories. If he were on a better team, there would be a risk of a demotion, but the Nationals will have nothing to play for and will keep sending him out.

Oneil Cruz needs to improve in several areas (health, platoon issues, strikeout rate) while not backtracking in any other area. He is a solid source of power and speed. Just make sure to have a solid batting average in place before adding him.

It’ll be tough to target Colton Cowser since he’s a platoon bat with major contact issues. If a fantasy team is set on batting average, he could be an option for his home run and stolen bases.

Sal Frelick took a positive step forward in both his contact and hard hit rates last season. The key for him going forward is maintaining or improving on them … and not regressing backwards.

Only a narrow roto build will fully utilize Chandler Simpson’s skills. He does feel like a corrective action if a team misses on steals and needs to catch up.