Author Archive

Sprint Speed Changes: Lots of Guys Out of Shape

Some previous research, including my own, has pointed to changes in Sprint Speed being a sign a player’s talent has changed. I decided to investigate changes from 2019 to 2020 to find who could be struggling and why. Many hitters are experiencing a drop and just a few are up.

In some way, the following information should be picked apart for a longer research article with some miraculous/groundbreaking/made-up claim that batters came to this season out of shape and that is why offensive production is down. I don’t care. All I want to know is who are the hitters who could be breaking out or down. Figuring out why is for the offseason. It’s now time to wins leagues.
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Mining the News (8/18/20)

American League

Angels

The Angels are considering cutting Albert Pujols’s playing time once Andrelton Simmons returns.

It would allow the Angels to play David Fletcher at second base and still have La Stella in the lineup playing first base, as Fletcher will remain an everyday player when Simmons returns but will be a super-utility player.

It would come at the expense of Pujols, but the veteran slugger has struggled at the plate this season.

Pujols, 40, wasn’t in the lineup on Saturday and is batting .186/.238/.356 with three homers and eight RBIs in 15 games this season. Maddon remains confident Pujols will get going, but it does appear that his at-bats could be reduced once Simmons returns.

The big winner is Tommy La Stella who should keep much of his playing time.
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Who is Being Dropped and Why (Week 4)

Adds and drops are starting to settle in with about two-thirds of the season left. This is the first week when there wasn’t really a theme. If any trend can be seen is that owners are getting tired of part-time bats.

For this analysis, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the owners stay engaged longer since each spent over $1000 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between obvious and bizarre and will focus on players dropped in six to nine leagues.
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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for the delay

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: First, here are the Tout Wars bids from tonight

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: 15-team mixed auction

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: ABohm: 205
CFrazier: 201
RGrossman: 181
AMiller: 88
KGibson: 81
JLyles: 77
TGonsolin: 76
ASlater: 73
DDuffy: 73
JTomlin: 57
NMarkakis: 52
ASenzatela: 47
SRomo: 44
TWilliams: 42
KRuiz: 37
DDeShields: 37
LGarcia: 35
JMcCann: 33
JDunn: 31
DCastano: 31
DSmeltzer: 31
CKuhl: 26
DDietrich: 23
NAhmed: 20
CQuantrill: 18
ADuvall: 17
AlYoung: 15
APlutko: 14
RGrichuk: 12
PSandoval: 9
TWebb: 6
ESogard: 4
TONeill: 4
SMurphy: 3
JCandelario: 2
TCahill: 2
JCamargo: 2
ABarnes: 2

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: 15-team mixed draft

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: AMiller: 150
ZDavies: 137
CFrazier: 123
RRuiz: 113
WCastro: 109
JStaumont: 89
TGonsolin: 78
KKiermaier: 71
MGonzalez: 68
NMarkakis: 51
ZEflin: 47
ASlater: 43
KRuiz: 38
CKuhl: 21
EHernandez: 21
PSandoval: 14
EFedde: 11
EThames: 10
MFoster: 7
JGant: 6
JKipnis: 6
APlutko: 5
TKemp: 4
MPina: 3
ELongoria: 2
KAllard: 2
YGomes: 0
DVarsho: 0
JTomlin: 0
MBumgarner: 0
JSoria: 0

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Waiver Wire Targets: Week 4

Fewer obvious adds are available this week. It seems like the good players with regular playing time are finally all getting rostered. While some rookies (Bohm, Garcia, and Carlson) just got promoted, I like some of the available veterans more. Also, the closer situations have calmed down.

As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers and hitters.
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Pitch Mix Changes: Mengden, Velasquez, Cueto, & Wojciechowski

Again, I’m diving into some lowly-owned starters who have changed their pitch mix since last season. A couple seem to have potential.

Daniel Mengden (3% Owned at CBS)

Daniel Mengden’s Pitch Mix
Pitch Type 2019 2020 Diff
FA% 36% 54% 18%
SI% 17% 0% -17%
FC% 12% 2% -10%
SL% 14% 23% 9%
CU% 10% 10% 1%
CH% 11% 10% -1%
FS% 0% 0% 0%

While he’s better known for his 80-grade mustache, he’s trying to mix up his pitches to become useful. He’s reorganized a bunch of pitches that have helped but other parts of his game are dragging him down.
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Who is Being Dropped and Why (Week 3)

The number of transactions as teams return their failed attempts at Saves. A few interesting disappointing-but-everyday hitters have been released. Finding the available diamond will be key to winning and losing leagues.

For this analysis, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the owners stay engaged longer since each spent over $1000 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between obvious and bizarre and will focus on players dropped in six to nine leagues.
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Mining the News (8/10/20)

American League

Angels

• A simplified swing may have rejuvenated Max Stassi’s career.

“I feel a lot better after my hip surgery I had in the fall,” Stassi said. “My routine is totally different. Mindset, gameplan, everything is a lot better. Obviously, a lot more confidence.”

Stassi had previous experience with assistant hitting coach John Mallee from their time together with the Astros and said he worked hard with fellow hitting coaches Jeremy Reed and Paul Sorrento to simplify his swing.

“The short version would be I’m hunched over a little more over the plate,” Stassi said. “Kind of a posture thing, so I’m able to get into my back hip and keep my posture level, versus getting too uphill. My lead arm is now down, so I can work directly towards the ball. And then, I’m just trying to rotate as much as I can.”

The big improvement so far with Stassi is his contact rate jumping from 68% to 75%. The improvement has helped halve his strikeout rate from 33% to 16% and improve everything else. For his career, he has a .640 OPS but it is up to 1.096 this season.
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Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Here the bids from the two 15-team Tout Wars leagues.

7:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Auction

7:29
Jeff Zimmerman: RMontero: $314
FValdez: $217
CEdwards: $166
KDavis: $136
EHernandez: $128
TButtrey: $128
TAlexander: $92
DMoore: $82
MKemp: $75
KBubic: $72
MStassi: $71
BTaylor: $67
AGimenez: $62
JLester: $52
EGonzalez: $44
JCronenworth: $44
MFord: $44
AWojciechowski: $42
LGarcia: $36
JSoria: $33
MCastro: $33
ZGodley: $30
DCease: $30
AVoth: $28
KAllard: $27
BBielak: $27
JArrieta: $23
TWilliams: $22
JBrubaker: $18
BKeller: $18
FCervelli: $12
TMilone: $11
HRenfroe: $6
ADickerson: $3
JStaumont: $3
CTromp: $2
JWendle: $1

7:29
Jeff Zimmerman: Draft

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: RMontero: $500
RWick: $254
TMilone: $191
MTauchman: $152
DMoore: $114
ASenzatela: $93
JChoi: $78
MKemp: $57
CEdwards: $57
ACobb: $56
AGimenez: $55
JBruce: $50
DPomeranz: $46
SRomo: $33
BBielak: $21
BGamel: $16
TAlexander: $7
HRobles: $6
ARomine: $3
MStassi: $2
JCronenworth: $2
LWebb: $1
BPhillips: $0
CEstevez: $0
RGrossman: $0
ADuvall: $0
RHelsley: $0

7:30
Guest: All things being equal, Yaz or Aguilar?

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Waiver Wire Targets: Week 3

I don’t know how helpful today’s rankings will be. Many feel like moves that should have happened a week ago. Almost all of them will be off next week’s list (> 40% owned). Maybe with all the roster moves last week, a player or two wasn’t added.

As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers and hitters.
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