The inspiration for this study came from this blurb in a recent Mining the News.

In the past, the general rule is that a higher fastball velocity leads to more strikeouts. Once spin data became available, the link between more spin and strikeouts was quickly found.

And they can go in separate directions. After going way too deep down this rabbit hole, I came out with a simple formula.

Before diving in, a few items need to be cleared up. First, other factors besides velocity and spin can affect a fastball’s effectiveness such as pitch location, deceptiveness out of the hand, and how often the batter has seen the pitch. The key with this study is to have a simple formula to start evaluating fastball changes for the accessible stats.

Second, I tried to use Bauer Units (simply spin/velocity) to determine how a fastball performance would change. While there was some correlation between Bauer Units and pitch performance, it became unnecessary noise. Seperating out spin and velocity was a better approach. Bauer Units are more helpful with pitch design than pitch evaluation.

Now, to the analysis. I found all the pitchers from 2015 to 2020 who threw 200 four-seamer fastballs in matched seasons (n=1134). Sinkers were not included because the goal with them is to remove spin and get the ball down through the zone.

After looking at several possibilities, I ended up with the following three rules of thumb for determining a change in a fastball’s swinging-strike rate. The r-squares aren’t high for any of the values (~.1 to .2), but that’s expected with so many inputs into a fastball’s performance.

Note: Remember that spin and velocity are related, don’t combine the first two formulas. Use the third one.

Spin: 100 rpm change * 1.0% SwStr%
Velocity: 1 mph change * 0.9% SwStr%
Spin & Velocity: 1 mph change * 0.78% + 100 rpm * 0.5%

Going back to the Paddack example (+0.2 mph, -60 rpm, -2.0 SwStr%), here are the expected changes.

Spin only: (-60/100) *1.0% = -0.6%
Velocity only: 0.2 * 0.9% = +0.2%
Spin & Velocity: 0.2 * 0.78 + (-60/100) * 0.5% = -0.14%

The loss of spin outweighed the velocity loss but the entire decline in swinging-strike rate can’t be explained with just the two factors. Paddack and the team identified those other causes and hope to correct them.

That’s it for today. I believe Mining the News will be more important than going over a few more examples. The formula will be useful once the regular season rolls around and spin and velocity data are available on every pitch.

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First, the words written to cover baseball have exploded but it’s 99% fluff. They’ve been completely useless for setting fantasy baseball evaluations.

Second, I’ve started collecting Spring Training velocity readings and the ones I’ve collected so far are in this spreadsheet.

American League

Astros

• Yordan Alvarez might play some first base.

With Alvarez’s knees healthy, the Astros are hoping to try him out this spring at first base, like they did early in his Minor League career.

“If he’s able to move around like he did two years ago, he would be capable of playing first base,” Astros bench coach Joe Espada said. “It’s just a matter if the legs feel good enough to stop and push and take those tough angles that are required to play first base. If he’s healthy, we’re going to give it a shot and see how he looks. If he shows the movement and range he showed in 2018 when I first got here, I think he could be very capable of doing it.”

Alvarez’s knees must be gone for the Astros to try him at a new position. I’m so far off him at this point

• Here is a lineup projection from The Athletic.

1. Myles Straw CF
2. Jose Altuve 2B
3. Michael Brantley (L) LF
4. Alex Bregman 3B
5. Yordan Alvarez (L) DH
6. Carlos Correa SS
7. Kyle Tucker (L) RF
8. Yuli Gurriel 1B
9. Martín Maldonado C

I know I’ve harped on this subject in the past, but I can’t believe Tucker is getting buried at seventh for Straw to leadoff. This B.S. can’t last longer than a month, right?

Blue Jays

• Randel Grichuck will mainly start in right field.

Grichuk has been told he’ll see the majority of his playing time in right field this season, but how does that work? The Blue Jays have Teoscar Hernández in right, who’s coming off a breakout season with a .919 OPS, good for his first Silver Slugger Award. Grichuk understands the realities here, but he expects this to develop as time goes on.

Since the signing of George Springer and Marcus Semien, it seems like Grichuck doesn’t have a lineup spot. With this comment, I’m a little worried that Hernandez will lose some at-bats to Grichuck. Both are right-handed and don’t have much for career splits, so there is little chance for a platoon. Hernandez’s value could really take a hit if he loses even 100 PA’s.

Orioles

• Cedric Mullins will quit switch-hitting and only bat from the left side.

Other than Mancini, the biggest news of the day was a decision by Mullins to stop switch-hitting. He will focus on hitting left-handed, where he has been a better hitter and starts closer to first to take advantage of his speed. He was 1-for-3 on Sunday.

About time since Mullins has hit .251/.305/.394 from the left side and only .147/.250/.189 from the right.

Rangers

• Ronald Guzman is now focusing on baseball and has reworked his swing.

[Ronald Guzman] wasn’t positive he would be back with the Rangers in 2021, so he wanted to better his game both mentally and physically. Guzmán said he’s now focused 100 percent on baseball. He transformed his entire swing in the offseason, swinging less with his entire body and instead hitting the ball out front.

Maybe he’ll get better at baseball now that he’s trying to get better at baseball.

National League

Brewers

• The shortstop and third base battles are a mess. The following quote is from MLBtraderumors and does a good job summarizing the situation described in this The Athletic article.

Milwaukee has built a lot of flexibility into the left side of its infield, as Urias, Orlando Arcia, and Daniel Robertson can all play either shortstop or third base, while Travis Shaw is also an option at the hot corner. Shaw can play first base as well, and Arcia also said that he is preparing to work out as a center fielder. Arcia made a single appearance in center field (the first of professional career) last season, playing four innings at the position on August 12 in a 12-2 loss to the Twins.

Here are the projections for the four players in question.

The Brewers are just throwing poo against the wall and seeing what sticks.

Cardinals

• There is a chance that Matt Carpenter moves to second base if Tommy Edman has to move to the outfield.

Tommy Edman is set to take over at second base, a place Carpenter — an All-Star there in 2013 — has been preparing for defensively through Spring Training. The pair could platoon, which the Cardinals have been hesitant to do in the past, though Edman seems to be the clear favorite for regular starting time.

The Cardinals could also do this: With questions about their projected outfield’s offensive prowess, Edman — a career rover in the field — could tag back into the grass should Carpenter’s play at the plate force him into starting time. Edman said he has been taking some fly-ball practice in the outfield this spring, but his focus has been primarily on second.

The outfield will really have to fall apart for this scenario to play out.

Padres

• Manny Machado had Lasik surgery this offseason.

But Machado did make one noteworthy change. He had laser eye surgery, because he said his vision has felt slightly off during night games under the lights in recent seasons. Why make that change after a season in which he batted above .300?

“Hopefully it helps me see the ball a little better, and I can hit .320, .330,” he said with a wry smile.

Pirates

• Kevin Newman reworked his swing.

“I worked on being kind of direct and short to the ball. I felt [my swing] was a little long last year,” Newman said.

Reds

• Kyle Farmer reworked his swing.

He revamped his swing this offseason, working with Pirates hitting coach Rick Eckstein near his Atlanta-area home.
…
The two started by watching video, ultimately deciding that Farmer’s swing wasn’t really ideal for his body. Together, they worked on Farmer using more of his legs and trying to stay down on the ball more than hitting in the air.

American League

Astros

• Myles Straw is looking forward to the challenge of leading off.

“I’m going to have to be more aggressive this year,” Straw said. “I know it; the coaches know it. I’m going to go into this season coming out swinging as a whole. I know pitchers are going to attack me, so staying ready to hit and grinding out at-bats and having good at-bats and having deep counts and working pitchers. … I’m looking forward to the opportunity.”

I can’t believe Straw is going to leadoff but Dusty Baker is in charge.
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This Friday night is the Beat Jeff Zimmerman league at the NFBC. Join up if you dare.

The next up in our series is "Beat @jeffwzimmerman" @RotoWire OC on Friday night at 10 pm ET

Click here to sign up and take him onhttps://t.co/EQzSDfRLLG

— The NFC (@TheReal_NFC) February 21, 2021

American League

Blue Jays

• Trent Thornton had loose bodies removed from his arm and plans on focusing just on four pitches.

Shortly thereafter, Thornton underwent surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow. The procedure was performed in Florida by prominent orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews, who removed four bone fragments, two of which were about the size of a molar tooth. Dr. Andrews stored them in a cup for Thornton, who then gifted them to his mom, Patty.
…
Thornton naturally has a high spin rate on his fastball and breaking balls. In the past, he’s deployed a six-pitch repertoire, but he said the focus this year is on his fastball, curveball, cutter and changeup …

Holy cow, he was pitching will a couple of molar-sized bone fragments in his elbow. Craziness.
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American League

Angels

• Andrew Heaney has been reworking his pitches and trying to be less predictable.

Heaney, 29, made another change this offseason, purchasing his own Rapsodo pitching device and a slow-motion camera to better track his throwing sessions. It allowed Heaney to measure things such as his spin rate on certain pitches, while also using the slow-motion camera to analyze his grips and how the ball was coming out of his hand.

…

“I think that there is an element of my game that I am a little bit stubborn,” Heaney said. “I know I have a good fastball. I like to throw my four-seam, I like to move it in and out, like to try and get it in on guys’ hands. Maybe our new front office will bring in some new information to help us. But I’ve been stubborn, and I’ve been in the same league — and let’s face it, there’s not an element of surprise any more. So I think an evolution needs to happen with how I approach hitters and the way I use my stuff.”

Part of what he said is true. His fastball gets hit (vs .845 OPS) and it’s predictable when he’s behind in the count (h/t BrooksBaseball.net).
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A heads up, from now on, I’m not going to reinforce any previous reports if nothing has changed. There is just too much news coming out to reconfirm past reports.

American League

Astros

• Ryan Pressly remains the best closing option.

I’m not so sure the Astros won’t still try to acquire a closer, and they’ve shown strong interest in Trevor Rosenthal, who remains on the market. If they can reel him in, they’d have the makings of an elite bullpen. Without Rosenthal, they have a few options. Ryan Pressly would likely get the first shot at it. He converted 11 of 13 saves last year after Roberto Osuna got injured.

• Also, Myles Straw remains the top center field option.

As much as the return of Marisnick would have made a nice story, the Astros feel it’s time to see if the 26-year-old Straw can be their everyday center fielder and replace the departed George Springer. Marisnick and Straw share many of the same tools, too, so having two right-handed-hitting speedy center fielders probably isn’t the best way to take up two roster spots. It’s a great opportunity for Straw, but if he can’t take advantage of it, Houston will have to try to find a replacement via trade in the regular season. As for now, it’s Straw’s job to lose. And don’t forget Pedro Leon — the Cuban player who signed for $4 million last month — is probably on a fast track to the big leagues as well.

The same Straw who has a .649 career OPS and is coming off a .500 OPS season. But he steals bases. So does Dee Strange-Gordon and Billy Hamilton and they aren’t starting in center field anywhere.
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American League

Athletics

• The second base job is up in the air since the team traded for Elvis Andrus.

This is an area that Forst still believes can be addressed internally — and another area that could see a position player battle over in spring training. Forst mentioned Chad Pinder, Sheldon Neuse — he said Neuse would get a “long look” in spring training — Tony Kemp and Vimael Machín. All of these candidates can play multiple positions, and two of them, Kemp and Machín, are left-handed hitters. Pinder and Kemp are the veterans of the group, while Neuse and Machín have limited big-league experience. Neuse projects to have the higher ceiling of the two young players offensively, has good footwork and a strong arm defensively.

Right now, four below-average players are fighting for one spot. Just stay away until there is some clarity.
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