Who is Being Dropped & Why (Week 2)

It’s the second FAAB period for the NFBC Main event and the week was a little calmer, but not much. It seems like managers might be a little too impatient on some guys. We are not even two weeks into a 26-week season.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in eight to eleven leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report. The right answer might be seven to ten.

Hitters

Mauricio Dubón (11): Two hits, 2 walks (one intentional) in 18 plate appearances so far. He’s barely playable when everything is going right. Easy drop.

Tyler O’Neill (11): Dropping O’Neill is a tough call, but the IL stint (groin) gives me hope he can get things going right. Maybe it had been a lingering problem. A 48% K% and 0 BB% is just painful.

Jay Bruce (10): He’s in for Luke Voit, but not hitting (.111/.250/.222). It’s tough to overcome a .125 BABIP.

Mitch Moreland (10): It has been so bad for Moreland (.389 OPS) that he has been replaced by Seth Brown at DH.

Rowdy Tellez (9): He finally got a hit, but the breakout candidate has been a huge disappointment.

Anthony Alford (8): Subpar talent who started in only four of the first nine games.

Austin Slater (8): Nothing has changed with him in a week and a half. He did miss a few games dealing with a foot injury, but should be scooped but by savvy owners.

Garrett Cooper (8): He’s not hitting (.642 OPS) and not starting all the time (five of eight games). The combination is just killing his fantasy value.

J.P. Crawford (8): It has been ugly with Crawford (.447 OPS). Teams are challenging him more (53% to 63% Zone%) and his walks are down (10% BB% to 3% BB%). Maybe the extra muscle wasn’t worth it (all his StatCast metrics down).

Luis Urías (8): I just don’t think he’s valuable as a hitter. Grounds out a ton (63% GB%).  Strikeouts too much for someone without a line-drive or flyball swing (29% K%). Drop.

Nomar Mazara (8): I’m wondering why people keep rostering him after 2300 subpar PA. “It’s his sixth season and third team and now he’ll finally put it all together and live up to his potential.”

Starters

Brad Keller (10): Besides a 3 mph increase in Keller’s fastball velocity, nothing is going right with Keller. He’s walking more batters than he’s striking out. He’s allowing home runs (3.9 HR/9) and a high BABIP (.591). Roster him once something is going right.

Garrett Richards (10): Everything I wrote about Keller applies to Richards except Richards has lost over a tick off his fastball.

Jake Arrieta (9): I understand managers took advantage of his two starts against the Pirates, but he’s facing a Yelich-less Brewers this week. I’d roll him out one more time.

Matt Moore (9): Moore rewarded those who trusted him in a two-start week with a 2.04 WHIP and a 7.56 ERA. He looks to be in mid-season form.

Merrill Kelly 켈리 (9): I sort of get not liking Kelly, but why hold onto him last week when he was starting at Colorado.

Alex Cobb (8): I know he’s part of a six-man rotation, but why drop a guy who is finally out of Baltimore and had seven strikeouts over six innings in his first start. Ed. note: And was incredible on Monday night.

Jeff Hoffman (8): I was looking to pick Hoffman up when possible. His numbers aren’t eye-popping (3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.7 K/9) but they are definitely playable in a 15-team league.

José De León (8): While there has been some good (17.4 K/9) and bad (7.71 ERA) in his first two starts, he got bumped out of the rotation with Sonny Gray coming off the IL.

Ross Stripling (8): This off-season, I dug into his struggles and he addressed none of them. His curve and slider are worthless at this point. He needs to start over building up from his changeup (career 16 SwStr%).

Relievers

Anthony Bass (10): A total of six runs in 2.1 innings. Ouch.

Joakim Soria (10): Hurt with a vague return time frame… and probably never had as firm a hold on the job as fantasy managers made it seem during draft season.

Jose Alvarado (9): I think he could end up with five to eight Saves this season with good ratios but timing the Saves will be nearly impossible.

Emilio Pagán (8): Mark Melancon is the Padres closer so Pagan heads to the waiver wire.

Garrett Crochet (8): It’s just really tough to roster a reliever who isn’t getting saves.

Lucas Sims (8): It seems like Amir Garrett is the closer, but I’d hold onto Sims. So far Garrett has more walks than strikeouts.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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MJBuddy
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MJBuddy

Nomar is my first man out in a dynasty league, and I’m basically keeping an eye for if his launch angle change is real and if it’ll improve his results.

But folks coming off of IL are probably going to bump him next week.