I tweeted out wanting to know who had shoulder surgeries similar to Fernando Tatis Jr. and it garnered many examples and opinions on the subject.

Hitters with a torn labrum in their shoulder (Tatis).

Jake Meyers ('21) – not back yet
Greg Bird ('16) – might have ended his career
Devin Mesoraco ('16)
Daric Barton ('11)
Posada ('08) – partial tear, back decent and then faded
Jesus Flores ('09) – career ender

Any others?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) January 29, 2023

All I wanted was the names of those who had the same or similar operations but got a lot more. With those comps, I hoped to get a range of potential outcomes. Well, I got them and whole lot more.

I know most people will already be anchored to an opinion that is probably based on already drafting or passing on Tatis in drafts or rostering him or not in a keeper league. For those with an open mind, here is what I think is the best information people gave me. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Athletics

• Paul Blackburn and James Kaprielian should be ready for the start of Spring Training.

Forst said Paul Blackburn and James Kaprielian have progressed well in their rehab and he expects both to have already thrown off a mound by the start of Spring Training: "I think it’s reasonable to expect both guys to be ready to go.”

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) January 27, 2023

Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Athletics

• The A’s are loaded at first base with the addition of Jesús Aguilar

For a rebuilding A’s club, Aguilar could, at the very least, provide value as a reliable stopgap at first base until No. 1 prospect Tyler Soderstrom, whose quick ascension through the system saw him finish last season with Triple-A Las Vegas, receives his promotion to Oakland, which could come as early as this season. Seth Brown, Dermis Garcia and Ryan Noda are others expected to be in the mix at first base for the A’s.

Seth Brown was already in danger of losing playing time because of his splits (career .791 OPS vs RHP, .527 OPS vs LHP) but this might cement Brown around 450 PA. Read the rest of this entry »

I started out wanting to see if a player stole more bases from one lineup slot compared to another one. Discussions around Trea Turner’s spot with the Phillies led me down this path. Last season, Turner had 603 PA from the 2nd and 3rd spot in the batting order and just 105 PA while leading off. He was on a 29 SB/600 PA pace from the leadoff spot and a pace of just 22 SB/600 PA from the other two. I wanted to see if the bump was normal and if not, what should I expect? What I found was a mess and don’t plan on regurgitating here. I put the “F- Around, Find Out” philosophy to work with over a day wasted to end up with three graphs and four actionable conclusions.

Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• There is a chance that Logan O’Hoppe might start in the minors.

The real competition appears to be between Thaiss and O’Hoppe. And the Angels have to be careful about rushing a young catcher like O’Hoppe with a very bright future.

• A lineup guess of Anthony Rendon, Luis Rengifo, and Brandon Drury being full-time bats with Gio Urshela and Jared Walsh in a platoon.

The Angels have a lot of guys that can play first, second and third. Not a lot of true shortstops. And the offseason acquisitions have most likely forced defensive whiz Andrew Velazquez off the active roster. The Angels will rotate their infield quite a bit depending on matchups. The best guess for a starting infield against a righty pitcher: Rendon (3B), Renfigo (SS), Drury (2B), Walsh (1B). And against a lefty pitcher: Rendon (3B), Rengifo (SS), Urshela (2B), Drury (1B).

It’s also possible that Angels manager Phil Nevin would value Fletcher’s defense and find a way to get him a consistent starting role, especially if his bat proves to be valuable.

Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Tigers

• Matt Vierling and Nick Maton will play all over the field according to manager A.J. Hinch.

Hinch on Thursday said new additions Matt Vierling and Nick Maton — part of the trade involving Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens going to the Phillies — will be the Tigers’ two “most active” players in spring training. That’s because both players are capable of playing both infield and outfield. Hinch will want to see both players at a variety of positions when camp begins next month.

“We’re gonna let it play out and see where the at-bats take them,” Hinch said. “I can see Vierling fitting in at a variety of positions. Maton, I’m gonna move him around, second, short, third, maybe even a little bit of outfield in the spring.”

Perhaps related: The Tigers do not currently have any player who profiles as an everyday third baseman. Maton could be the early favorite to win the job.

Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.

Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz
• Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez
• Waldichuck, Painter, Falter, & Wacha
• Rodriguez, Pivetta, Hall, & Germán
• Nelson, Turnbull, Martinez, & DeSclafani
• Pfaadt, Skubal, Smyly, Muller, & Cavalli
• Kluber, Irvin, Márquez, & Boyd

Read the rest of this entry »

The third base market is going to be interesting to navigate this season. It’s top-heavy with six guys going in the top-40 picks, a couple of stragglers, and then a massive cliff. Depending on where a person drafts, there might not be a way to avoid the cliff. I’m going to dive into this market and point some possible alternative ways to navigate for an acceptable solution.

Here are the third basemen (20 games min) who are in the player pool with their NFBC and FanTrax ADP. The NFBC will be based on rostering players in 5×5 Roto leagues (AVG) while most of the leagues at FanTrax are points bases (best balls). Additionally, I included an ADP-based auction value for 12-team leagues. The last column is the dollar value from our auction calculator. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak are likely to start the season in the minors even though they’ve both been working hard.

“Those jobs are solidified,” Minasian said, implying that Adell and Moniak are likely to begin the season in the minors. “Those are obviously young players who are very talented that haven’t necessarily turned the corner yet that have been putting in a significant amount of work this offseason to do that,” Minasian said. “They’re both young. I think we forget about how young these two players are.”

• Griffin Canning and Chris Rodriguez should be healthy to start the season.

Minasian also provided some health updates on some other Angels, including Griffin Canning and Chris Rodriguez. Both of those pitchers missed the 2022 season entirely, with Rodriguez rehabbing from November 2021 shoulder surgery and Canning fighting lingering back issues. Both players have now begun throwing off a mound. “If both those guys are healthy entering spring training, they’ll be exciting to watch,” Minasian said. “Right now they are on schedule to be with us in spring training and we’ll see where they’re at.”

Don’t lose track of this pair. Both threw hard (maybe not now) and struck out a decent number of strikeouts (~9 K/9) while progressing through the minors. Canning will get a few more strikeouts with an elite slider (19% SwStr%) while Rodriguez will try to keep the ground balls coming (55% GB%).

Both should start in the minors but if they get promoted, prepare to roster them. Read the rest of this entry »

I ranked the top-200 non-catchers and top-50 catchers. Today, I rank hitters from 201 to 300. I don’t feel great about my ranking on the last 75 or so players. Small changes in playing time could push them up or down the rankings.

Notes:

• The rankings start with a weighted average of several available projections. From there, I moved hitters up or down based on my perceived playing time (PA) or talent (Talent)
• I had to pick one format to rank off of and I went with 5×5 Roto.
• I didn’t give any player a multi-position boost or DH hit with each hosting site having its own settings.
• Replacement level is not included since that value will change based on each league’s settings.

Read the rest of this entry »