Big Kid Adds (Week 8)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.

Batters

Casey Schmitt (8): Schmitt made a great impression in his first six games by hitting .458/.458/.833 (.500 BABIP) with 2 HR. The power looks to be legit since he has already posted a 112 maxEV.

While the BABIP will likely regress, his 17% K% will likely jump 10% point if he maintains a 14.5 SwStr% (K% = 2*SwStr%). Pitchers are already adjusting to him since he is having issues catching up with both the four-seamer (12% SwStr%) and slider (24% SwStr%). From his first three to the last three games, he has seen his four-seamer usage go from 15% to 43% and his slider usage from 23% to 32% .

The biggest issue going forward will be playing time. Initially, he was called up to to fill in for Brandon Crawford at short but it’ll be interesting to see if he stays up and how often is he in the lineup.

Jordan Diaz (7): I had a few bids in for Diaz after I did a quick review of his profile for my waiver wire article. The weird thing is that Diaz and Schmitt have almost the exact same projected triple slash line

Name: Steamer Projection
Schmitt: .259/.307/.396
Diaz: .259/.295/.410

More OBP with Schmitt and more power Diaz.

In 60 PA, the 22-year-old Diaz has 4 HR, a .220 ISO, and a 112 maxEV. Probably the the one reason Schmitt got more attention Diaz, was Diaz’s uneventful 2022 debut (.621 OPS) and horrible defensive grades (40 grade or lower). It’s possible he took a major step forward as seen by his eight straight starts.

Kyle Farmer (6): A simple volume play with Farmer taking over the vacated third base job when Jose Miranda was demoted. The only change to Farmer’s profile is that he has raised his launch angle (13 degrees to 18 degrees) thereby doubling his Barrel% (4% to 8%).

Jake Bauers (6): Over the last 10 games, Bauers has started in six of them while hitting .292/.357/.542 with 2 HR on the season. The 27-year-old is swinging for the fences as seen by his 36% K%, 27% GB%, and 33% HR/FB. He’s been a bit lucky so far with a .500 BABIP on flyballs (.113 career flyball BABIP). I can believe in the home runs (higher LA, new maxEV) but they are more likely to come with a .200 AVG than one near .300.

The biggest issue with him will be if he gets consistent playing time going forward.

Brandon Belt (6): The Jays have six righties (.818 OPS vs RHP, .000 OPS vs LHP) on the schedule (3/3) so it’s the time to role out Belt. I’m just not sure if the 35-year-old is still streamable. While a .273/.364/.455 slash line against righties seems reasonable, it’s pumped up by a .475 BABIP and has a 40% K% dragging it down. Probably in these deeper formats I should have given him more consideration.

Henry Ramos라모스 (6): Nice volume play with TJ Friedl hurt. Ramos started five games in a row going into Sunday. While he was great in April (1.000 OPS, 8% K%), he’s struggled in May (.358 OPS, 32% K%). The biggest change was that he no longer could face Oakland’s pitchers (.455/.571/.455).

The one thing I have to start considering is how much should I give hitters an “at Colorado”-like boost after they get done facing Oakland.

Mickey Moniak (5): Moniak has spent the parts of four seasons in the majors but only has a total of 176 PA while hitting just .174/.236/.298. The 25-year-old has led off for two straight games after having a resurgence in AAA where a posted a career-high 111 mph maxEV and hit 8 HR in 141 PA. In just 9 PA in the majors, he hit a 110-mph home run.

Also, he has historically struggled with strikeouts as seen by his career 39% K%. He had the strikeout rate down at 25% in AAA and a 15% SwStr% in the majors (career 20% SwStr%). An interesting comp is Jo Adell. Here are their Steamer600 ROS projections.

Name: HR, SB, AVG/OBP/SLG
Moniak: 21, 11, .224/.276/.402
Adell: 25, 8, .216/.276/.405

Matt Thaiss (5): Thaiss has started in eight of the last 10 games while hitting .291/.385/.382 with 1 HR on the season. He’s pretty much a must roster in two-catcher formats with his stats and playing time.

Starters

Eury Pérez (9): Covered in detail by everyone else.

Luis L. Ortiz (7): While he only got one strikeout in his first MLB start, there was quite a bit to like about his debut including a 97-mph fastball and a slider with a career MLB 22% SwStr% (17% in AAA this year). He has been toying with a changeup that had a 13% SwStr% in AAA.

His biggest draw back will be walks. He posted a 5.6 BB/9 in the majors last year. In 32 AAA innings, he had a 3.1 BB/9 and 38% Ball% (3.6 equiv BB/9). His 32% Ball% was better in the first start so there is hope.

Alex Faedo (6): In 64 career innings, he has a 5.32 ERA (5.05 xFIP), 1.49 WHIP, and 7.3 K/9. While he was decent in 18 AAA innings (9.5 K/9, 2 BB/9, 2.50 ERA), nothing has changed in his profile which incluses a good slider (17% SwStr%). I’m guessing 99% of the demand was his scheduled start against Washington (Corbin).

Johan Oviedo (5): I know the only reason he was available was because he was dropped for sucking. While he has a 96-mph fastball and couple decent secondaries, curve (18% SwStr%) and slider (15% SwStr%), he doesn’t throw enough strikes (4.3 BB/9, 1.64 WHIP). His matchups are not good so a middle reliever should be rostered instead.

Jared Shuster (5): It wasn’t 100% certain that Schuster was going to make a start week. Also, Schuster has shown no control in AAA (5.1 BB/9) and the majors (9.4 BB/9). There is no reason to roster someone who could just blow away your ratios. A middle reliever was probably the better option.

Vince Velasquez (5): I’m a little surprised managers were jumping the gun to Velasquez when he is still a couple of weeks away from being added to the rotation. While his results have been great (3.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), I’ve been burnt by him too many times and believe his true talent is near the career 4.84 ERA.

David Peterson (5): Peterson got a start on Monday against the Nats where he got lit up for six runs over five innings. He’s simply getting hit around as seen by his .404 BABIP and 1.9 HR/9. His xFIP is down at 3.42 (3.76 SIERA), so regression should be expected … right?

Finding a common link between pitchers getting hit around is till the Holy Grail and I have on my to do list a detailed study on the matter, but the only obvious sign with Peterson is that the results are on fastball are below average. Let’s go for a quick study on pitchers with a ERA over or under 1.50 compared to their SIERA.

The struggling pitchers had two common traits. First, they didn’t generate groundballs compared to those who are doing better. While sometimes groundball pitchers can get BABIP’ed to death, they limit the blowups and are good investments.

The second one shows that the underperformers had better fastballs according to our STUFFF metrics but they threw them a ton (38% vs 26%). While the fastballs were better, they weren’t elite with the best one having a Stuff+ of 109 (botStuff of 61). I know there is more to dig into, but for this year throwing a tone of average to bad four-seamers will lead to line drives and home runs.

There is probably a key ratio between fastball quality and usage that could be back tested.

Relievers

Dylan Floro (7): With A.J. Puk out for at least a few weeks, Floro looks to get most of the Save chances in Miami.

Craig Kimbrel (6) and Gregory Soto (6): With Jose Alvarado on the IL, the Phillies are going with mixed bag with Kimbrel and Soto being mentioned as closing candidates. Each have one has Save this past week.

Miguel Castro (6): Castro (2.89 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.2 K/9) looked to be working his way into the closer’s role with a Save on the 12th and Win on the 14th. Then yesterday, he setup Andrew Chafin’s Save. He’s next in line but doesn’t have the role just yet.

Wandy Peralta (5): Peralta got two Saves over the weekend as the Yankees seem to go going with several getting Saves with Michael King, Deivi García, and Ian Hamilton getting Saves over the past two weeks. The last time Clay Holmes got a Save was April 12th.

Nick Anderson (5): With Raisel Iglesias allowing two runs in each of his last two appearances, fantasy managers are looking to roster his potential replacement. Anderson has been great with a 0.81 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, and 3.12 ERA.