Waiver Wire & FAAB Report (Week 9)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Important notes: The schedule is unique where there are quite a few ideal streaming options (e.g. Rockies and Marlins) so they will need to be weighed against long-term values. I ranked the guys with an eye both ways.
Matt McLain: The easy top add. He was destroying AAA (.348/.474/.710, 12 HR, 10 SB) and has been decent in the major (.885 OPS). So far he is being passive at the plate with 43% Swing% (league at 47%) leading to a 39% K% with just a 7% SwStr%.
Lane Thomas: He’s been legit good (6 HR, 4 SB, .281 AVG) while leading off every single day.
Jake Burger: A must-roster in all leagues at this point if he’s playing. Has 10 HR in 96 PA to go with a .279 AVG.
Paul DeJong: He has 13 straight starts at short while hitting .274/.346/.562 with 6 HR and 1 SB.
Mark Vientos: A nice power bat which comps to Santander, Sheets, and Haniger. The issue will be how much playing time he gets since he’s effectively a DH. He’s been up for just three games and sat in one of them.
Nick Senzel: Steady roto contributor (4 HR, 3 SB, .264 AVG) while qualified at several positions.
Casey Schmitt: The big question behind his promotion was how much will he play especially when Brandon Crawford returns from the IL. The answer is all the time with 10 straight starts while hitting .400/.400/.650 (.452 BABIP) with 2 HR. It seems like he is already going through a transition as pitchers adjust to him. Here is a split of his first and last five games.
Games: OPS, K%, FBv, FB%, SL%
First 5: 1.550, 5%, 93, 45%, 20%
Last 5: .550, 30%, 95, 52%, 39%
Alex Kirilloff: He is crushing baseballs (.342/.457/.579, .423 BABIP, 2 HR) but he has sat against two of the last three lefties (career .686 OPS vs LHP, .742 OPS vs RHP). He should now be first base qualified in most formats.
LaMonte Wade Jr.: Steady contributor (7 HR, .917 OPS) who continues to play every day.
Luke Raley: Only starts about two-thirds of the time but is productive (8 HR, 3 SB, .248 AVG) when in.
Spencer Steer: Another steady/boring bat (5 HR, 1 SB).
Jake Fraley: While he continues to sit against lefties (.254 OPS), his overall stats are great (.277 AVG, 5 HR, 6 SB). He is not be playable next week as the Reds face five lefties. Weeks like this is why it’s tough to roster platoon bats.
Edouard Julien: He’s hitting .287/.442/.481 with 4 HR and 3 SB in AAA. Earlier in the majors, he showed some power (2 HR, 109 maxEV) but struggled making contact (30% K%, only 42% Fastball%).
Brenton Doyle: Level Up because it’s seven home games next week against the Marlins and Mets. While strikeouts are an issue (36% K%), he’s hitting for power (4 HR) and stealing bases (6 SB). He does have a major home (.915 OPS) and road (.646 OPS) split. Elite single week play. He might be the hardest player to rank because the power and speed could play when he’s not in Colorado.
Mickey Moniak: Moniak has started and led off in five of seven games since being recalled. He’s sharing two outfield spots with Taylor Ward and Hunter Renfroe. He looks great so far ( .474/.500/.947, 2 HR, 2 SB) because of a .700 BABIP.
Leody Taveras: He’s turning around a slow start and hitting a .908 OPS in May. Has 5 SB on the season.
Kevin Kiermaier: On the strong side of a platoon (career .662 OPS vs LHP, .744 OPS vs RHP) while hitting .325/.383/.513 with 3 HR and 4 SB on the season.
Dominic Fletcher: He’s still starting in centerfield while hitting for a decent average (.356 AVG) and some power.
Luis García: Starting, batting second, and hitting .255 with 3 HR and 2 SB (2 CS).
Bryan De La Cruz: He’s been fine (.293 AVG, 5 HR, 1 SB) with a four game series in Colorado this week.
Nick Pratto: Riding a .488 BABIP and 34% to a .314 AVG. He is just providing some power (2 HR) with a just a 106 mph maxEV.
Stuart Fairchild: Since TJ Friedl went on the IL, Fairchild has started six of seven in center field and the team faces five lefties next week (career .750 OPS vs LHP, .691 OPS vs RHP). Just a one week play.
Jurickson Profar: Just on one week stream with seven home games scheduled.
Robbie Grossman: He was batting second until Corey Seager returned from the IL. Now Grossman is down at sixth or seventh. While he’s hitting .254 with 5 HR, he has not attempted a stolen base this season.
Jake Bauers: His demand went through the roof led off for the Yankees for a couple days. Bauers has profiled as a guy with some power and speed (prorated to 15 HR and 8 SB per 600 PA) but no batting average (career .212 AVG).
Kyle Farmer: Provides a bit of power (3 HR) while currently being the team’s third baseman.
Andy Ibanez: He has started 10 straight games and has some value as an accumulator.
Joey Ortiz: He has started three straight for the Orioles while playing three different infield positions. In AAA, he hit .320/.371/.524 with 3 HR and 1 SB.
Michael Toglia: Starting at first base for the Rockies with Cron on the IL. Biggest issue will be keeping the job with 5 K in 11 PA.
Marcell Ozuna: Unstartable in all but daily moves leagues. He’s just playing half the time with the rest of the team healthy.
Owen Miller: Only starts against lefties but at least he leads off. He is hitting .345/.371/.476 with 1 HR and 4 SB but unrosterable with the team only facing one lefty next week.
Yan Gomes: Starting about two-thirds of the time with a .292 AVG and 6 HR.
Blake Sabol: Playing and hitting (.277/.333/.468, 5 HR, 2 SB). Not much more to ask for.
Matt Thaiss: He is get the bulk of the catcher at-bats while hitting .290/.375/.377.
Jake Rogers: Starting about half the time. He has hit 5 HR but with a .184 AVG.
Royce Lewis: Destroying the minors by hitting .444/.500/1.000 with 3 HR and 3 SB.
Jordan Westburg: Hitting .311/.382/.615 in AAA with 12 HR and 4 SB.
|Name||Previous Roster%||Current Roster%||Change|
|LaMonte Wade 1B SF||38%||46%||8%|
|Nick Senzel 3B CIN||38%||41%||3%|
|Alex Kirilloff 1B MIN||35%||52%||17%|
|Casey Schmitt SS SF||31%||50%||19%|
|Spencer Steer 1B CIN||30%||35%||5%|
|Jake Fraley LF CIN||28%||50%||22%|
|Lane Thomas RF WAS||26%||34%||8%|
|Jurickson Profar LF COL||25%||26%||1%|
|Royce Lewis SS MIN||24%||30%||6%|
|Nick Pratto 1B KC||23%||36%||13%|
|Yan Gomes C CHC||21%||24%||3%|
|Bryan De La Cruz LF MIA||21%||24%||3%|
|Luis Garcia 2B WAS||21%||22%||1%|
|Jake Burger 3B CHW||19%||32%||13%|
|Marcell Ozuna DH ATL||18%||20%||2%|
|Blake Sabol C SF||13%||14%||1%|
|Luke Raley RF TB||12%||14%||2%|
|Matt McLain 2B CIN||10%||49%||39%|
|Leody Taveras CF TEX||10%||13%||3%|
|Mark Vientos 3B NYM||9%||32%||23%|
|Jordan Westburg SS BAL||9%||14%||5%|
|Kevin Kiermaier CF TOR||8%||12%||4%|
|Kyle Farmer 3B MIN||8%||12%||4%|
|Robbie Grossman LF TEX||8%||9%||1%|
|Paul DeJong SS STL||7%||10%||3%|
|Brenton Doyle CF COL||4%||17%||13%|
|Dominic Fletcher RF ARI||3%||32%||29%|
|Jake Bauers LF NYY||3%||4%||1%|
|Mickey Moniak CF LAA||2%||13%||11%|
|Matt Thaiss C LAA||2%||4%||2%|
|Jake Rogers C DET||2%||3%||1%|
|Owen Miller 2B MIL||1%||3%||2%|
|Andy Ibanez 3B DET||1%||2%||1%|
|Stuart Fairchild LF CIN||0%||1%||1%|
Louie Varland: Probably the last chance to roster him. His 22.1 K%-BB% would rank 13th among qualified pitchers between Castillo and Wheeler.
James Paxton: Dominating so far with a 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 11.5 K/9. Roster until his arm falls off.
Matthew Liberatore: There is a ton to like with him (96-mph fastball, average or better slider and curve), but he’s lacking control in the majors this year (3 BB in 5 IP, 40% Ball%), last season (4.7 BB/9), and while in AAA (2.9 BB/9). I think managers need to take a chance on him but know a repeat of 2022 (5.97 ERA, 1.73 WHIP) is in the cards.
Michael Lorenzen: The results (0.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) have been great in May when he dumped his cutter and curve. The deal is that his strikeouts are down (9.6 K/9 to 5.0 K/9).
Dane Dunning: Dunning isn’t close to being 1.69 ERA good. As a starter (where he’s been better), he has a 15% K%-BB%, 50% GB%, and 3.73 xFIP. A 3.73 xFIP would have him ranked 31st among qualified starters. My projections have him as just over a 4.00 pitcher. Considering how many arms have blown up this year, he’s at least a bench streamer.
Brayan Bello: Continues to walk too many batters (5 in last start). The walks along with running a high BABIP because of his groundball nature, he has a 1.59 WHIP. He can be a Framber Valdez clone if he can lower the walks.
Brandon Bielak: A low-4.00’s ERA streaming pitcher who has been better over his last two games (3.19 xFIP, 11.7 K/9) when he focused (11% usage to 25%) on his changeup (20% SwStr%).
Alex Wood: I’m interest in the 9.2 K/9 but not the 4.6 BB/9. I’m not ready to dismiss him but I can’t afford have him “work it out” in my rotation.
Kyle Bradish: He’s probably a low-4.00’s ERA talent who can be streamed against the right opponents. I’m not sure the two-step against the Yankees and Rangers next week is the right time.
Rich Hill: The D2 stud has positioned himself to be a streaming option like this past week against Detroit. He might be a sit this week but is then lined up for a two-step the week after against the Giants and Cardinals.
Patrick Corbin: Surprisingly, he survived his two-step this week by allowing just 4 R over 12 IP. And next week he faces the pathetic Royals. I wouldn’t use him but there are a lot worse choices.
Brandon Williamson: Major walk issue in AAA (career 5.7 BB/9) but limited them in his first start against Colorado. His projections have him around a 5.00 ERA pitcher. He threw five pitches in his debut with some missing bats (cutter, slider, change) and four-seam and cutter not getting one swing-and-miss. I’d like to see a little more.
Alex Faedo: High flyball pitcher who will live-and-die from the home runs he gives up. At least he doesn’t walk anyone. He might be worth stream when at home against a low power team.
J.P. France: After a couple amazing starts, France didn’t make it to the fifth inning while allowing six runs. I can’t get behind a guy who strikes out so few batter (5.9 K/9) and will value him as a 5.00 ERA pitcher go forward.
Marco Gonzales: I’m about 98% sure (h/t to LTD) these adds are about his two-step against Oakland (Medina) and Pittsburgh (unk) next week. No need to let a 5.00 ERA talent destroy a team’s ratios.
Kyle Hendricks: He hasn’t been good for three seasons and is getting eaten up in his AAA rehab starts. I’ll pass for a good middle reliever.
Dean Kremer: I’m not sure why a pitcher with a deserving 5.00 ERA is being added. The five Wins? Two starts versus the Angels and Blue Jays? I don’t follow.
Jared Shuster: And why? When a pitcher’s ERA and BB/9 are both at 7.24, he can be ignored.
Tommy Henry: The two-start guys are killing me. Henry is at the minimum a 5.00 ERA talent but he faces the Phillies and Red Sox next week.
Austin Gomber: I’m not going to recommend a 5.00 ERA talent pitcher for a two-start week in Colorado.
Gavin Stone: Still in AAA (likely Dustin May replacement) where he has a 4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9.
Gavin Williams: Across two minor league levels, he has a 1.32 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 12.4 K/9.
AJ Smith-Shawver: Across three minor league levels, he has 0.69 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a 12.8 K/9 in 26 IP.
Ben Brown: Across two minor league levels, he has a 2.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 12.7 K/9.
|Name||Previous Roster%||Current Roster%||Change|
|Louie Varland SP MIN||38%||51%||13%|
|J.P. France SP HOU||38%||43%||5%|
|Gavin Stone SP LAD||31%||36%||5%|
|Dane Dunning RP TEX||30%||61%||31%|
|James Paxton SP BOS||27%||56%||29%|
|Brayan Bello SP BOS||27%||35%||8%|
|Alex Wood SP SF||26%||35%||9%|
|Matthew Liberatore SP STL||25%||50%||25%|
|Dean Kremer SP BAL||24%||41%||17%|
|Kyle Bradish SP BAL||24%||33%||9%|
|Marco Gonzales SP SEA||24%||31%||7%|
|Gavin Williams SP CLE||21%||25%||4%|
|Michael Lorenzen SP DET||19%||36%||17%|
|Jared Shuster SP ATL||18%||21%||3%|
|Rich Hill SP PIT||15%||16%||1%|
|Kyle Hendricks SP CHC||10%||13%||3%|
|Patrick Corbin SP WAS||9%||14%||5%|
|Ben Brown SP CHC||9%||11%||2%|
|Austin Gomber SP COL||8%||12%||4%|
|Tommy Henry SP ARI||4%||6%||2%|
|Brandon Williamson SP CIN||3%||8%||5%|
|A.J. Smith-Shawver P ATL||3%||6%||3%|
|Alex Faedo SP DET||2%||5%||3%|
|Brandon Bielak SP HOU||2%||7%||5%|
Relievers: Save-base ranks
Dylan Floro: OK reliever who is the closer.
Kendall Graveman: OK reliever who is the closer.
Pierce Johnson: Bad reliever who is the closer.
Miguel Castro: Decent reliever who is in the mix for Saves.
Wandy Peralta: Below-average reliever who is in the mix for Saves.
Nick Anderson: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Matt Moore: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Bryan Abreu: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Hunter Harvey: Decent reliever who is the backup closer.
Hector Neris: Average reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.
Gregory Soto: OK reliever who is a couple steps away from closing.
Caleb Ferguson: OK reliever who is a couple steps away from closing.
|Name||Previous Roster%||Current Roster%||Change|
|Bryan Abreu RP HOU||32%||34%||2%|
|Dylan Floro RP MIA||29%||38%||9%|
|Pierce Johnson RP COL||26%||28%||2%|
|Kendall Graveman RP CHW||15%||18%||3%|
|Gregory Soto RP PHI||12%||14%||2%|
|Matt Moore RP LAA||9%||12%||3%|
|Hector Neris RP HOU||9%||12%||3%|
|Hunter Harvey RP WAS||7%||8%||1%|
|Nick Anderson RP ATL||6%||8%||2%|
|Wandy Peralta RP NYY||4%||21%||17%|
|Caleb Ferguson RP LAD||4%||10%||6%|
|Miguel Castro RP ARI||3%||9%||6%|
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Very thorough! took me a LONGGG time to digest!