Jesus Montero was traded before the 2012 season from the Yankees to the Mariners for Michael Pineda. Montero was finally given a full time job after not being able to break into the Yankees’ lineup. With the Mariners, Montero didn’t hit great, but not horrible either. For 2013, Montero will need to continue growing as a complete hitter for his fantasy value to increase.
Mike Aviles played in 136 games for the Red Sox in 2012, mainly at short stop. This off season, Aviles has been on the move. First, he was traded to the Blue Jays. Two weeks after that trade, the Blue Jays traded him to the Indians. Aviles should be an OK middle infielder in deep and AL only leagues depending on if he can get on the field.
Alcides Escobar exceeded expectations in 2012 by hitting almost .300 and had 35 steals. In Zach Sander’s end of season SS rankings, Escobar ended up with the 10th highest rating. Going into 2013, he is primed to repeat 2012.
Yesterday, the Royals acquired Ervin Santana and cash from the Angels for minor-leaguer Brandon Sisk. Our own Dave Cameron extensively covered the deal from the real world perspective. The change in scenery does look to change Santana’s value for the worse, but regressing back to the his previous production level will be the main key for his fantasy value going forward.
Expectations were pretty low for Pedro Alvarez coming into 2012. He had the pedigree of being the second overall draft pick in the 2008 draft, but he only hit four home runs (HR) and struck out (K%) over 30% of the time in 2011 bringing his stock way down. He was able to re-find find his power stroke in 2012 and it gave him some fantasy value.
Fantasy owners hoped Mike Moustakas would breakout in 2012 after a disappointing rookie season in 2011. For a few months it looked like the breakout would happen as he hit .268 AVG with 15 home runs in the first half of the season. In the second half, the production dropped as he barely hit over .200 with only 5 HRs. In 2013, his talent level will be tough to predict due to his up and down production.
In Mike’s short career, he looks to have three distinct “seasons” — 2011 and the first and the second halves of 2012.
| HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP | |
| 2011 | 5 | 6.0% | 14.0% | 0.263 | 0.309 | 0.367 | 0.296 |
| 1st Half | 15 | 7.0% | 19.3% | 0.268 | 0.327 | 0.490 | 0.293 |
| 2nd Half | 5 | 5.6% | 21.3% | 0.211 | 0.261 | 0.325 | 0.252 |
Martin Prado’s hitting bounced back nicely after being affected by a staph infection in 2011. Hitting .300 with double digit HRs should have been expected in 2012. The biggest surprise with him was the 17 SB after only getting 13 total in his 6 previous seasons. The totals put him as the 9th highest rated 2B in Zach Sanders’ 2B End of Year Projections. His 2013 production could be similar to 2012 levels. Maybe. Probably not.
Fantasy owners hoped for a bounce back in 2012 after Kelly Johnson regressed in 2011 after a superb 2010 season. A second baseman with 16 HRs and 14 SBs normally would have a relatively high fantasy ranking. Johson was only able to hit .225 and therefor was ranked 24th overall in Zach Sander’s postseason 2B rankings. Kelly Johnson may bounce back in a in 2013, but age is beginning to catch up with him.
Chris Davis was the bane of my fantasy teams for a couple of years. After breaking out in 2008 with 17 home runs in 80 games, he was my ace-in-the-hole of draft/auction day. The results were horrible. Once I finally swore to never pick him up again, he had a comeback season with the Orioles. With such an uneven past, it will be tough to get a read on his potential 2013 season.
The fantasy value of Chris Davis lives of the edge of relevancy because of three traits, a high number strikeouts, good power and a high BABIP. In some seasons, one or more of these traits destroyed his value. In his first season (2008), none were an issue and he thrived. In 2009, the strikeout rate jumped and his batting average plummeted. In 2010, both his power and BABIP dropped. In 2011 his power was down. Finally in 2012, all three aligned again and he had a decent season. I am going to look into each of these three areas and see what benchmarks he needs to reach category for a repeat of 2012.
Kendrys Morales completed his first full season since fracturing his tibia in late May 2010. His injuries were not an issue in 2012, but his playing time was limited because he shared time at 1B and DH with Mark Trumbo and Albert Pujols. Morales current talent level is a bit uncertain and his playing time is even more up in the air.