Fantasy owners hoped for a bounce back in 2012 after Kelly Johnson regressed in 2011 after a superb 2010 season. A second baseman with 16 HRs and 14 SBs normally would have a relatively high fantasy ranking. Johson was only able to hit .225 and therefor was ranked 24th overall in Zach Sander’s postseason 2B rankings. Kelly Johnson may bounce back in a in 2013, but age is beginning to catch up with him.
Chris Davis was the bane of my fantasy teams for a couple of years. After breaking out in 2008 with 17 home runs in 80 games, he was my ace-in-the-hole of draft/auction day. The results were horrible. Once I finally swore to never pick him up again, he had a comeback season with the Orioles. With such an uneven past, it will be tough to get a read on his potential 2013 season.
The fantasy value of Chris Davis lives of the edge of relevancy because of three traits, a high number strikeouts, good power and a high BABIP. In some seasons, one or more of these traits destroyed his value. In his first season (2008), none were an issue and he thrived. In 2009, the strikeout rate jumped and his batting average plummeted. In 2010, both his power and BABIP dropped. In 2011 his power was down. Finally in 2012, all three aligned again and he had a decent season. I am going to look into each of these three areas and see what benchmarks he needs to reach category for a repeat of 2012.
Kendrys Morales completed his first full season since fracturing his tibia in late May 2010. His injuries were not an issue in 2012, but his playing time was limited because he shared time at 1B and DH with Mark Trumbo and Albert Pujols. Morales current talent level is a bit uncertain and his playing time is even more up in the air.
For my next few posts, I am going to look back at some of my early season player evaluations, good or bad.
Austin Jackson: Breakout Candidate? 4/3
What I said then:
It is way too early to draw any real conclusions from Austin Jackson‘s start to the season. Most of his production has come from a completely unsustainable BABIP [.563]. Besides the high BABIP, he is also showing improved plate discipline. While the sample size is way too small right now, I would continue to track his K% [21%] and see if he has better control over the strike zone as the season goes on. Any chance for a breakout will be tied to lowering his strikeout numbers.
And now:
Everyone knew that the BABIP was unsustainable and it ended up (.371) almost identical to his career value (0.370). Jackson was able to maintain his lower K% over the course of the season and hit for .300 for the first time in the majors.
Justin Morneau: Is There Any Hope? 4/18
What I said then:
Justin Morneau has not had a good start to his season. His walk rate and power seem to be a concern. His walk rate is not out of place when taking into account his IBBs. His power loss is a concern though. He will just have to play more to see if the power loss continues.
And now:
Monrneau had two months of good power after I wrote the article, but he was not able to sustain the power spike and it dropped as the season went on.
ISO
First 2 months: .291
Last 4 months: .132
Average distance on his HR and Flyballs
First 2 months: 302 ft.
Last 4 months: 269 ft
His ISO was cut in half and his batted ball distance saw a loss of over 30 feet.
The weird thing is that he went on the DL in May and when he came back, he had his best month of the season.
Brennan Boesch’s Disappointing Start to the Season 4/23
What I said then:
Brennan Boesch has been a fantasy disappointment this season. …. I would look for some level of rebound, but he needs to hit the ball with more authority to have the season some people anticipated.
And now:
All Boesch had in him was a dead cat bounce. Horrible season.
Wainwright and Pujols: Rough Starts 4/23
What I said then:
Adam’s 2007 season looks to be a nice season to compare to 2012. The fastball velocities are identical. They are the seasons when he had his highest BABIPs (0.304 and 0.325). Adam had is worst season in terms of ERA (3.90) and WHIP (1.40) in 2007 until this season happened.
And now:
Season: ERA, WHIP, BABIP, Velocity
2007: 3.70, 1.40 ,.304, 89.4
2012: 3.94, 1.25, .315, 90.1
The two seasons ended being almost similar. At the time of the article, his FIP (6.52), xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.28) averaged out to 4.31 which is close to his final ERA of 3.94.
What I said then:
Albert has not been living up to his expectation so far this season. Looking over his stats, two values stick out as potential areas of concern, his walk rate and power.
And now:
BB%, NiIBB%
2008: 16%, 8%
2009: 16%, 7%
2010: 15%, 7%
2011: 9%, 6%
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: 7%, 3% (2 of his 5 BB have been IBB)
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 8%, 4%
Year: ISO
2009: 0.331
2010: 0.284
2011: 0.242
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: .108
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 0.245
Year: Flyball and HR batted ball distances
2010: 313 ft
2011: 303 ft
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: 275 ft
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 281 ft
Albert was able to rebound a bit from the beginning of the season, but not even close to his previous seasons. I see an Alex Rodriguez fustrating decline happening with Pujols.
Espinosa and Roberts: 2B Ownership Decliners 4/30
What I said then:
After being one of my favorite stories of 2011, I have quickly soured on Roberts. He will have to hit more line drives and less pop ups for his value to go in the positive direction.
And now:
He was able to increase his LD% and decrease his IFFB%.
Triple slash and BABIP at time of article: .159/.243/.254, .188
Triple slash and BABIP after the article: .249/.307/.381, .283
He rebounded, but he will not flirt with a 20/20 season again.
What I said then:
I see no hope right now for Danny. He needs to make improvement in his plate discipline and/or power stroke to become an everyday player at 2B in deep leagues, not alone 10 to 14 team leagues.
And now:
Espinosa wasn’t able to drop his K% or regain his HR power. He has increase his LD% to help bring up his AVG to around 0.250 to make him a somewhat rosterable option.
Walker and Weeks: 2B Ownership Decliners 5/2
What I said then:
While he [Weeks] was a little lucky in 2011, he has been extremely unlucky so far this season. I would expect his AVG to increase as a few more batted balls begin to fall for hits.
And now:
His BABIP did go from 0.207, at the time of the article, to 0.270 over the rest of the season. It did not get to the .300+ BABIP predicted in the article, but it did improve.
What I said then:
Right now, Neil looks like a Plug-n-Play guy if owned in a shallow league. The high average won’t be a drag and he will get a few counting stats. In deeper leagues, the options available on the waiver wire are probably thin, so his owners may just have to ride out the power slump.
And now:
2012 Marcel prediction (closest projection in PA), 2012 stats:
PA: 578, 530
HR: 12, 14
Run: 68, 62
RBI: 72, 69
SB: 7, 7
AVG: .278, .280
Neil Walker ended up producing just like he was expected to produce. I bet he does the same thing next year.
It has been nice waking up over the past few days and having one less item to complete, specifically setting my fantasy baseball lineups. I am going to enjoy the extra time, but not for long. The off season for fantasy baseball has begun and it means that preparation for next season needs to begin. The following are a few concepts I follow during the off season.
Winterize Keeper Teams – I talked about this concept last year and still believe in it.
Like many of my fellow RotoGraph writers, I attempted some bold predictions before the season began. Here is how I failed.
Brennan Boesch will be a Top 30 fantasy player.
I missed big here. Using ESPN’s player rater, it has him at #190 among just hitters. I liked the idea of the player before before Fielder and Cabrera having a good season. The problem was that no one on the Tigers wanted to step up. Eight Tigers batted in the #2 hole with Berry, Dirks, Boesch and Infante all hitting there in at least 20 games. As a group they hit .258/.313/.400. What a wasted opportunity for some fantasy player to be a Run producing machine. 0-1
I am doing the streaming pitchers dumpster diving edition. As Eno just pointed out, tomorrow looks like the day to mass stream. I will only be looking at pitchers owned in 10% or less of all leagues at Yahoo.
Notice – Don’t worry about streaming pitcher’s hurting a team’s WHIP values. It is the last few days of the season and players are really not care too much about winning, except those on a few teams. The players are hacking away and walk rates drop by about 10% over the last few days of the season.
After looking at Chris Carpenter’s 2012 debut yesterday, today I will look at two other pitchers that made their 2012 debuts this past week, Jake Odorizzi and Jorge de la Rosa
Chris Carpenter debuted on Friday night. He came away with decent results, 5 IP, 2 Runs allowed, 0 HR. Chris is usually a fantasy workhorse, but shoulder surgery has all but eliminated his 2012 season. He looks to have limited value as a streaming option this next week and has some question marks to be answered for 2013.
The big red flag that is waving over him is the drop in velocity for all his pitches. His sinker, which he threw 31 times, is down about 3 MPH from 2010 and 2011.
It is that time of the year when fantasy teams begin to reach their pitching limits. Limits are in place to to mimic the innings thrown by a MLB team’s pitching staff over a season. Owners should dive into the leagues rules to see if a team can get a late point rush by maxing out as many pitching innings as possible.