MASH Report (2/28/13)

I was going to put out a little more information from Dr. James Andrew’s book, Any Given Sunday, but instead I found a nice interview with him. He mentions four main points young pitchers should follow:

Here is his response when asked, “What advice would you give pitchers, in general?”

1. Use proper mechanics. The No. 1 problem in any specific sport is improper mechanics.
2. Don’t play year-round.
3. Avoid the radar gun at a young age. Don’t try to overthrow. A lot of kids are 13 years old and checking the radar gun. That’s going to get you in trouble. The radar gun makes you want to throw harder than you are capable of throwing.
4. Be very careful with showcases. I call them “show-off” cases because kids go there Saturday after throwing the football on Friday. They jump on a mound and overthrow because scouts are there. The next thing you know, the shoulder or elbow gets injured.

Recent Injury Data

 • Phil Hughes may start the season on the DL because of a bulging disk in his back.

 • Daniel Murphy is out for 7-10 days for a strained intercostal muscle on his right side. It would be nice to see Murphy come back 100%. Early next week, RotoGraphs will be releasing their position rankings and Murphy was surprisingly high in my rankings (based only of a composite of various projections). As an example, here is his Steamer projection compared to Joe Mauer’s:

Name: Runs, HRs, RBI, AVG, SB
Murphy: 77, 9, 58, .286, 6
Mauer: 65, 10, 61, .300, 3

Almost identical projections, with Murphy having the edge in Runs and Mauer in AVG.

 • The more information which comes out, the worse Rafael Furcal’s health looks. Just assume for now he won’t play and will need TJS.

 • Grant Balfour is on schedule to be ready by the season’s start.

 • Frank Francisco looks to be a little ahead of schedule on his return. Opening day seems like a possibility.

 • Chad Billingsley threw for the first time after being shut down last season for a partially torn UCL. If his recovery hits any snags, he will need TJS. I would just stay away from him this season for any thing more than $1 or a late round pick.

 • Pedro Feliciano is out at least 2 weeks as his heart get monitored. He wasn’t much of a fantasy factor with a projected K/9 around 7 and BB/9 around 4.

 • Shaun Marcum was pulled for a hurt weak shoulder. He will not be ready until at least mid-March. Just stay away for now.

 • Wilson Ramos is on track to be ready by the season’s start. Right now he looks like a safe player to roster.

 • No need to take a flier on Javier Vazquez. His 2013 season is done.

 • Mike Pelfrey made his first start after TJS last year. His fastball speed was off 4-5 mph. In a study I did for the 2013 Hardball Times Annual, I found the a pitcher’s average fastball velocity stays basically the same after coming back from TJS so there is definite room for concern

 • Will Middlebrooks had an issue with the same wrist which he fractured last season. I would be a little worried about his production going forward since wrist injuries have been known to sap a player’s power.

 • Joe Wieland and Kyle Drabek were officially placed on the 60-day DL.

 • Andres Torres and Jose Mijares both pull out of the WBC for injuries.

Player Return Timetables

Name	Injury	Injury/Surgery Date	Early Return Date	Later Return date	Status	Source(s)
Scott Baker	TJS	4/17/12	Mid April	May	Throwing off mound	(1)
Grant Balfour	Knee	2/14/13	Late March	Middle April	Throwing off mound	(1)
Brandon Beachy	TJS	6/21/12	Mid June	Mid June	Playing Catch	(1)
Lance Berkman	Knee	10/1/12	Late April	Mid March	Working out	(1)
Jeremy Bonderman	TJS	04/24/12	Late March	Late March	Healthy	(1)
Tim Byrdak	Shoulder Surgery	07/01/12	Early July	Early July	Bullpen Sessions	(1)
Edwar Cabrera	Shoulder	08/01/12	Mid March	Unknown	Unknown	(1)
Chris Carpenter	Nerve	02/05/13	September	Retire	Rest	(1)
Andrew Cashner	Thumb laceration	1/25/13	Late March	May	Rest	(1)
Carl Crawford	TJS	8/23/12	Early March	Late March	Throwing	(1)
Scott Diamond	Elbow Surgery	10/1/12	Early April	Early May	Unknown	(1)
Kyle Drabek	TJS	6/19/12	Mid Season	Mid Season	Unknown	(1)
Danny Duffy	TJS	6/13/12	Early June	All Star Game	Throwing	(1)
Neftali Feliz	TJS	8/1/12	July	August	Playing Catch	(1)
Frank Francisco	Elbow	2/14/13	Late March	Early April	Throwing	(1)
Rafael Furcal	Elbow	2/20/13	Mid March	Mid April	Rest	(1)
Mat Gamel	Knee	2/18/13	2014	2014	Rest	(1)
Matt Garza	Strained Lat	2/21/13	Late March	Mid April	Throwing	(1)
Curtis Granderson	Right forearm	2/24/13	Early May	Middle May	Rest	(1)
Corey Hart	Right knee surgery	1/26/13	Late April	Late May	Rest	(1)
Daniel Hudson	TJS	7/9/12	July	July	Playing Catch	(1)
Phil Hughes	Bulging Disk	2/28/13	Late March	Middle April	Rest	(1)
Drew Hutchison	TJS	08/08/12	August	October	Rehabilitation	(1)
Derek Jeter	Fractured Left Ankle	10/1/12	Late March	Late March	Fielding	(1)
Ryan Kalish	Shoulder Surgery	1/25/13	Early April	Unknown	Rest	(1)
Matt Kemp	Shoulder	8/1/12	Late March	Late March	Light Training	(1)
Colby Lewis	Elbow Surgery	7/1/12	Late May	June	Throwing	(1)
Francisco Liriano	Broken humerus	12/1/12	Early April	Late May	Rest	(1)
Cory Luebke	TJS	5/23/12	July	July	Unknown	(1)
Ryan Madson	TJS	04/11/12	April	May	Rest	(1)
Nick Masset	Shoulder Surgery	09/07/12	Unknown	Unknown	Throwing	(1)
Jeff Mathis	Broken Collarbone	02/23/13	Mid March	Mid March	Rest	(1)
Brian McCann	Torn labrum	7/4/12	Mid April	May	Running and throwing	(1)
Logan Morrison	Knee	9/1/12	Late March	Late April	Light Training	(1)
Charlie Morton	TJS	06/21/12	June	Unknown	Throwing	(1)
Juan Oviedo	TJS	09/06/12	September	2014	Rest	(1)
Felipe Paulino	TJS	7/3/12	Early July	Early July	Unknown	(1)
Carl Pavano	Ruptured spleen	1/25/13	Late March	Mid April	Rest	(1)
Mike Pelfrey	TJS	05/01/12	Late March	Late March	Throwing	(1)
Michael Pineda	Shoulder Surgery	5/1/12	June	Early July	Rest	(1)
Wilson Ramos	ACL	5/1/12	Late March	Late March	Catching	(1)
Alex Rodriguez	Hip surgery	1/16/13	Early July	2014 season	Rest	(1)(2)
CC Sabathia	Bone Spur	10/1/12	Late March	Late March	Throwing	(1)
Johan Santana	Back	2/25/13	Late March	Middle April	Throwing off mound	(1)
George Sherrill	TJS	5/1/11	Late April	May	Bullpen Sessions	(1)
Joakim Soria	TJS	4/2/12	Late May	Early June	Playing Catch	(1)
Eric Surkamp	TJS	07/24/12	Late July	September	Unknown	(1)
Tsuyoshi Wada	TJS	05/11/12	May	June	Throwing off mound	(1)
Josh Tomlin	TJS	08/22/12	August	2014	Rest	(1)
Joe Wieland	TJS	07/27/12	Early August	2014	Catch	(1)
Brian Wilson	TJS	4/19/12	Unknown	Unknown	Not ready to pitch	(1)
Randy Wolf	TJS	10/30/12	2014	2014	Rest	(1)
Delmon Young	Right ankle	10/1/12	Mid April	Early May	Rest	(1)

Pitchers with Velocity Drops

Name	2013	2012	2011	2010
Alexi Ogando	93.1	96.9	95.0	96.2
Kelvin Herrera	95.0	98.5	96.2
Stephen Pryor	92.0	96.6
Mike Pelfrey	88.0	93.5	92.2	92.0

For reference, fastball speeds stabilize quickly and spring training values are on average 0.6 mph slower than the regular season.

Players Returning From Injury

No information yet.

Players Playing Through Injuries

Name	Injury	Source
Hanley Ramirez	Shoulder	(1)

Here is the list of players who should exceed their power projections for 2013:

Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki. New additions: Dustin Ackley, Matt LaPorta and Howie Kendrick