Like with my Busts, I consider breakouts to be players who will out-earn their current costs. Most of the time, my breakouts aren’t exciting prospects but stable veterans who aren’t sexy anymore. If you want exciting picks, look elsewhere. If you want league winners, stay around.
Changelog
3/12/2024: Initial list
Ranking Methodology
ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
$ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).
For Breakouts, I think these hitters will outperform their current draft cost. With hitters, I’ve found I don’t have a knack to determine which hitters will outperform their projections besides looking at playing time. The projections catch most of the other adjustments (e.g. new home park, aging adjustments, etc…).
I divided the players up by 50 spots of ADP so fantasy managers could consider the players in their league depth.
Changelog
3/7/2024: Initial list
Ranking Methodology
ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
$ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).
• I expected more articles on the effects of the pitch clock but here is the first one I’ve seen. While I would have liked more details on results/methods used, it did find that “slow” starters struggled more than “slow” relievers. They used fWAR to determine if the pitcher struggled. I wish they would have divided up the talent and playing time components.
Though there are a number of factors at play in determining how well a pitcher performs, we can, at the very least, hypothesize that starters were more greatly impacted by the pitch clock than relievers. Starters’ changes in fWAR and tempo between ‘22 and ‘23 were more heavily correlated (0.55) than those of relievers (0.35). While correlation doesn’t imply causation, it does lead us to believe that starters were likely more strained from a performance standpoint than relievers. This would make sense, too, when considering the staminal game starters endure as opposed to the fast-paced, max-effort environment relievers face.
Angels manager Ron Washington said he plans to change that this year and it’s already showing up early this spring. The Angels have stolen 11 bases through their first five games, which ranks second among all clubs this spring. Washington is coming from the Braves, who stole 132 bases last year, which ranked 10th in the Majors, while they were also the best team in baseball at taking the extra base at 51 percent. Washington’s teams with the Rangers were also aggressive and led by basestealers such as Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler.
“I think everybody is going to be pleased because that’s what they were used to seeing from the Angels, when Mike [Scioscia] was managing, it was a regularity,” Washington said. “When I was in Texas, it was a regularity and when I was in Atlanta, it was a regularity. We stole five bases yesterday and three before that, but I want these guys to keep building. I don’t think teams are going to let us run crazy but if they fall asleep, we’re going to run. I want to be aggressive, that’s the way I want to play.”
Note: Some of the “news” isn’t really that new. I went back to the beginning of Spring Training and dug for as many nuggets as possible. If I felt the information was useful, I added it.
Washington initially pegged first baseman Nolan Schanuel as his leadoff batter but said he now envisions him as the club’s No. 2 hitter because of the way he gets on base and handles the bat. Infielder Luis Rengifo or right fielder Mickey Moniak could serve as leadoff hitter, while Washington sees Mike Trout hitting third and Anthony Rendon batting cleanup.
“I want somebody who has some speed,” Washington said. “I don’t want Schanuel to get on the bag and then clog them. Now, if I have to come back and make him the leadoff hitter because that’s what he’s done, I’m not saying it can’t change. But I want him in the second hole because he can move the baseball around the field and the second hole is situational.”
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After Rendon, Washington said he sees Taylor Ward as his fifth hitter, Brandon Drury sixth and Logan O’Hoppe seventh. Jo Adell, Aaron Hicks or Moniak would likely hit eighth, and Zach Neto is slated to be the club’s No. 9 hitter. Washington views Neto as a second leadoff hitter and said it’s a role that Neto is embracing.
“Neto told me he wants to hit ninth,” Washington said. “He loves restarting and turning the lineup over. He wants to be on the bag and score runs with the big guys at the plate. He said he wanted to hit ninth, and that kid had no hesitation. He knew exactly what he wanted to do.”
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Washington said he doesn’t see the Angels changing lineups or batting orders often, as he wants to create some stability. But he also knows things can change over the course of a season and will adapt as necessary.
Focusing this offseason on translating that high-strikeout form to the big leagues, Boyle added a sweeper to his arsenal of pitches, which also includes a traditional slider and curveball.
The first baseman had documented issues with his left wrist and right knee last year — he missed a handful of games, but was never placed on the injured list — but he said his pain spanned “from head to toes.” That said, Guerrero didn’t want to use nagging injuries as an excuse for his performance, instead saying the onus was on him because he didn’t prepare as well as he could have.
“If I tell you that I didn’t play with pain in a lot of games, I would be lying,” he said. “But that’s not an excuse. It’s part of the game. Sometimes you got to go on the field and grind, even if everything hurts. Also, I probably won’t blame that because I didn’t have the best preparation in the offseason last year.”
Like Adell, Suarez is out of Minor League options and will have to be exposed to waivers if he doesn’t make the team. Suarez, 26, is coming off an injury-plagued year that saw him post an 8.29 ERA with 28 strikeouts, 20 walks and 10 homers allowed in 33 2/3 innings. But he has had success in the past, including a 3.86 ERA in 207 1/3 innings from 2021-22.
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Suarez is currently stretched out to be a starter, giving the Angels some rotation depth. But his best chance of making the club is as a long reliever and potential spot starter.
I don’t consider busts to be players who have no fantasy value but guys who will disappoint compared to where they are being drafted. There is no reason to take a chance on the player with similar options at similar costs.
Usually, the market will find any flaw in a player and bury them. Because of this, it’s easier to find a reason for a player to beat his draft cost than exceed it. But just as many players will be under their projections than over them by the season’s end.
For busts, we divided the players up by 50 spots of ADP so fantasy managers could consider the players in their league depth.
Changelog
2/14/2024: Initial list
Ranking Methodology
ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
$ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).
Estévez is expected to be the closer again this season, although he did struggle in the second half. Stephenson was the club’s biggest addition in the offseason, signing for three years and $33 million. He’ll be the club’s top setup reliever, and could take over as closer if Estévez falters.
