Last week’s results were the first major failure in my FAAB estimation procedure. The main issue was that the average NFBC bids were about 1/3 of the expected values after being almost dead on for several weeks.

I’m not going to re-create the formulas I use last week because I’m worried owners held tight to their FAAB for the trade deadline. Almost nothing was spent last week except some owners speculating on Garrett Hampson. Spending has been tight for a couple of weeks. Here are the graphs of the totals spent each week and percentage.

I understand the overall values dollar values leveling off but the percentage change should be similar. From week 7 to 16, the values hovered around 8% to 15% of total FAAB left. The last two week have been the lowest since the first few weeks.

Since this is my first year collecting the data, I’m not sure of the effect of the trade deadline in mixed leagues. While it’s not as big of a deal as in Only leagues, roles are lost and gained as players move around.

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It’s time for the bi-weekly look at under-the-radar pitching prospects. As a reminder, here is what the rankings are and aren’t:

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

• A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.
• The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. These top prospects are already owned in most leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.

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Braves

• Since returning from the DL, Ronald Acuna is leading off with Ender Inciarte batting seventh.
• Charlie Culberson is batting and playing second as Ozzie Albies deals with a hamstring issue.

Brewers

• This team continues to roster too many MLB caliber corner outfielders and first basemen cutting into everyone’s playing time. The team has finally smartened up and is playing Jesus Aguilar every day. Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, and Eric Thames are battling for the right field spot
• Tyler Saladino (.275/.330/.431) has started 12 straight games at shortstop.
• Hernan Perez has been playing a ton of second base recently so I wondered if he was on a hot streak. Nope since he’s hitting just .241/.290/.397 over past 28 days. The problem is that Brad Miller has been horrible (.203/.242/.305) over the same time frame.

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With many hittes returning from the DL after the All-Star break, I decided to examine American League lineups today and the National League ones tomorrow.

Angels

• With Albert Pujols coming back from the DL, there are four players, Shohei Ohtani, Luis Valbuena, Jefry Marte, and Pujols fighting over the first base and designated hitter spots. I expect Pujols and Ohtani, when healthy, to get the most at-bats. It’s a situation to monitor for a few days to see how the Angels will handle the situation.

Astros

• The lineup set at the top but the team has been cycling some players around to find a serviceable shortstop with Carlos Correa out and little production from left field (.243/.319/.386). Kyle Tucker was supposed to be the answer but he’s hit only .139/.205/.167 in 39 PA so far. It’s a small sample but the Astros are trying to repeat as World Series champs so don’t be surprised if they add an outfielder as insurance.

Athletics

• While the batting order has been mixed up since the All-Star game, generally the same players are being used. The only exception is that Chad Pinder (vs LHP) and Dustin Fowler (vs RHP) are in a platoon.

Blue Jays

• Randal Grichuk is playing center field everyday with Kevin Pillar on the DL.
• For owners in deeper leagues, keep an eye on Dwight Smith Jr. who has started in right field the last two games. While the 25-year-old has a little bit of speed and power, his true talent is getting on base (.373 OBP with 12% BB%). His 15% HR/FB rate looks decent but he mainly puts the ball on the ground (50% GB%).
• Lourdes Gurriel is back from the DL and playing with Devon Travis and Aledmys Diaz moving to part-time roles.

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Finally. I have combed through all the NFBC Main Event FAAB bids, linked them to past CBS ownership rates, and I’m able to provide some interesting facts on the FAAB bidding process. Besides the overall FAAB breakdown, I have this week’s estimated FAAB bids.

I’d like to again thank NFBC’s Greg Ambrosius for providing the information on some missing weeks. There is no way this project could have moved forward without his help.

1. Overall Spending Rate

With the complete dataset, the ideal versus actual spending rates can be calculated.

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Yesterday, I examined hitters who owners missed on preseason and what could be done to prevent such mistakes in the future. Today, the underachievers go under the microscope. In my previous article, I used Paul Sporer’s “All First Half” articles for reference. With no underachieving articles out yet, I will look for players with differences in ADP and current rank using our auction calculator.

Extended Injury Stays

Daniel Murphy

I lamented last offseason about missing out on J.D. Martinez’s great 2017 season. I didn’t want to miss out again and was willing to take a chance on Daniel Murphy’s discount.

When I created his projection, I account for six weeks off but it was on the short side. Additionally, once he returned, he wasn’t productive for a few weeks but has a .859 OPS in July.

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We are all learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. -Charlie Munger

It’s time to see if I need to adjust my fantasy baseball beliefs by analyzing the first half busts and breakout lists. While it’s great to acknowledge these players, owners need to sit down and figure out why everyone missed on them. By hitting on one or two of these breakouts, a team could be competing for the top spot. Here are the groups and how to identify the breakout next preseason.

For the player situations I analyzed, I’m used Paul Sporer’s First Half All Value Stars and Fantasy Team for inspiration. I looked for actionable traits or tells which can be used next season.

Unknown Playing Time

Jesus Aguilar

Everyone understood coming into this season that the Brewers playing time situation was going to be a mess, so not owning Aguilar is understandable. He was to be in a platoon with Domingo Santana with middling projections. The deal with Aguilar, he really didn’t have a horrible platton split. It was .372 wOBA vs .338 wOBA in 2017. It’s .444 vs .405 this season.

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It’s time for the bi-weekly look at under-the-radar hitting prospects. There seemed to be some confusion on the point of the rankings which is to find under promote good prospects. Today, I will try to clear up the and dive into a few hitters not represented on top-100 prospect lists.

The last time I ran this report, there was some questions on why some hitters were missing. After investing, I found out it’s was a database issue which missed some newly signed players, changed the position labeling, and mislabeled when players lost their rookie eligibility. I’ve made sure everyone is included but added a few adjustments.

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I’ve decided to update my 2018 pERA rankings since I’ve been diving for some starter sleepers. Usually, this procedure helps to find underperformers with inflated ERAs. This time, it was mainly under the radar pitchers.

If anyone is unfamiliar with pERA, it combines the swinging strike rate and batted ball data from each pitch along with the walk rate into an overall ERA estimator (full explanation). Besides the few pitchers listed below, here is a link to the full 2018 values.

The top starters are as expected:

Rank. Name: pERA
1. Max Scherzer: 2.34
2. Chris Sale: 2.44
3. Jacob deGrom: 2.52
4. Noah Syndergaard: 2.57
5. Ross Stripling (w/ RP stats): 2.65
6. Trevor Bauer: 2.75
7. Gerrit Cole: 2.83
8. Justin Verlander: 2.88
9. Patrick Corbin: 2.91
10. Dereck Rodriguez: 2.92

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