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I hope no owner is needing a free agent starter to use as it’s a rough group of lowly owned pitchers. When Ian Kennedy is the top choice, the pickings are slim.

Here are the pitchers owned in 20% or fewer FanTrax leagues.

Ian Kennedy (22% – close enough for RotoGraphs) at Twins

The 33-year-old righty should not be in play, but he’s Sunday’s best option with the chance for a Win (vs Twins) and some strikeouts (8.3 K/9). His flyball nature has helped him post a HR/9 over 1.5 over the past 4 seasons so he’ll have a high ERA. Experienced owners should know what they’re getting with Kennedy.

Erasmo Ramirez (19%) vs Yankees

I’ve never been able to trust Ramirez and I’m not sure I can against the Yankees. There are a couple signs for optimism. Most of his ERA damage happened in his first start when he posted a 10.24 ERA. After those two starts, he went on the DL (shoulder).

Since returning, his ERA has been 3.70 with ERA estimators near 4.00. He’s in the mold of a slightly below average starter with a 7.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. He’s facing CC, so he has a chance for a Win. There are worse choices.
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It’s going to be a tough week for owners looking for help. Few quality players became available this week and the available two-start starter is not any better. I will still try to give some FAAB estimates.

As usual, I use the NFBC Main Event (34 15-team mixed leagues, $1000 in FAAB) for the FAAB bids and CBSsportsline.com to estimate the weekly demand. First off, here are last week’s results.

Results from last week's FAAB projections for @thenfbc. I'm back to being a little high.

Name: Proj, Actual
Tyler White: $61, $43
Luke Voit: $19, $8
Luis Urias: $24, $11
Ramon Laureano: $16, $20
Billy McKinney: $14, $7
Jace Fry: $13, $9https://t.co/7SEVPNqmjk

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) September 7, 2018

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I’m highlighting pitchers owned in 20% or few leagues at FanTrax.com

Daniel Norris (15%) vs Cardinals

Where did the 25-year-old’s lefty’s 11.4 K/9 come from? And the 4.6 BB/9? He is pulling a Robbie Ray (12.0 K/9, 4.8 BB/9) with an 89-mph average fastball.

After rooting around on his player pages, he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher, fastball and slider. Both pitches produce an above average amount of swings-and-misses and flyballs. The flyballs have led to a high number of home runs (1.8 HR/9) hence the inflated 5.49 ERA.

Most of the damage was done before going on the DL (groin surgery). In his one start since returning, he struck out seven Yankees and walked only one batter in 4.1 innings. In the start, his fastball was up to 91 mph.

For owners digging for strikeouts, they should be all in with Norris. The walks still worry me some and owners who need to control their rate stats may want to stay way to see another start. He may be a sneaky recommendation as the season winds down.
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Since returning from the disabled list (neck nerve impingement), Stephen Strasburg’s fastball velocity has dropped from averaging 96.1 mph to averaging 93.9 mph. For a pitcher known for bringing the heat, the decline immediately impacts his value going forward. The question isn’t if but how much will be the decline.

First, I completely understand Strasburg could get his fastball velocity back as soon as his next start (the chances for this could be another whole article). When determining the 30-year-old righty’s value, I needed to plant a flag at some velocity and then come up with a projection.

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With most of the money of the FAAB dollars long gone, owners are stretching every last dollar to acquire talent. This week’s bidding may drain everyone’s budget as several players are on the move and some impactful rookies could be called up.

First up are last week’s results.

Predicted vs. Actual FAAB Bids for @thenfbc Main Event

Name: Pred, Actual
Kopech: $70, $71
Morales: $35, $27
Gaviglio: $11, $7
B Wilson: $7, $1
G Allen: $15, $17
Melky Cab: $21, $9

I'm slowly getting better estimates.https://t.co/nPSjaec31q

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 27, 2018

The estimates and results are inline, especially being only $1 off on Kopech’s bids. Enough about last week, it’s time for this week’s estimates.

The ownership rates are provided by CBSSportsline. I use them because CBS leagues allow immediate adds, so a player’s demand can be known before those with weekly bidding.
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In my last article, I contemplated if fantasy owners care too much about who to add and not enough on who to drop. I’m going run an experiment over last few weeks of this season to see what can be extracted from league drop trends.

For reference, I’m going to analyze the 34 leagues in the NFBC Main Event. These are 15-team mixed leagues using batting average and no trading. With each team putting $3K on the line, more of these owners haven’t thrown in the towel than in most leagues.

This first week, I went through the 30 most dropped players. The reasons behind the most dropped players were obvious, mainly they were hurt, lost a role, or demoted. Next week, I may concentrate on the players dropped between 5 and ten leagues. These players aren’t the most obvious drops and analyzing them may be the most helpful.

Name: Number of teams who dropped him (of 31)

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While going through my Tout Wars league’s transactions, I noticed Robbie Ray was released. While I felt Ray’s price was too high for me during draft season, my gut assumed he should still be rostered. My head said to dive in and find the reason for cutting a seemingly valuable resource. Today, I’ll examine how the actual and perceived values differ and how these moves can help make future decisions.

To start with, here is a quick dive into how Ray has done this season and spoiler alert… it’s not pretty. Even though his 11.7 K/9 is the 5th highest (min 80 IP), his 5.0 BB/9  is also the 5th highest. The walks, along with his 4.73 ERA, are tough to absorb. Additionally, his ERA is about a run higher than his xFIP and SIERA. The 26-year-old lefty has always been hittable with a career .316 BABIP and 1.2 HR/9.

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In my chat last night, I felt I was not informed enough on a few players and I am going to examine a couple today, Luke Voit and Billy McKinney. Both are producing and playing regularly with their new teams. They could be a couple nice sleepers in deeper leagues over the season’s last month.

Luke Voit

I laughed when Yankees picked up Voit from the Cardinals at the trade deadline. I figured they’d make an impactful move, which wasn’t Voit. I’ve been wrong so far.

In his first 20 games with the Yankees, the 27-year-old first baseman started just four of them. In the last four, he’s started three going seven for 11 with three homers. On the season, he’s hitting .325/.400/.625 supported by a .444 BABIP.

Before getting too far along finding a value for Voit, a quick Greg Bird detour needs to be made. Simply, he has been horrible hitting just .199/.288/.390 on the season. The playoff-bound Yankees can’t expect to make it far in the playoff with a first baseman hitting like a catcher. I additionally checked to see if Bird was nursing an injury and nothing. It seems like Voit may have won the first base job. At least until reality sets in. While Gary Sanchez may return and play some first base, I will just assume Voit will have the full-time role until he doesn’t.

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