What We Can Learn From Dropping Robbie Ray?
While going through my Tout Wars leagueās transactions, I noticed Robbie Ray was released. While I felt Rayās price was too high for me during draft season, my gut assumed he should still be rostered. My head said to dive in and find the reason for cutting a seemingly valuable resource. Today, Iāll examine how the actual and perceived values differ and how these moves can help make future decisions.
To start with, here is a quick dive into how Ray has done this season and spoiler alert… itās not pretty. Even though his 11.7 K/9 is the 5th highest (min 80 IP), his 5.0 BB/9Ā is also the 5th highest. The walks, along with his 4.73 ERA, are tough to absorb. Additionally, his ERA is about a run higher than his xFIP and SIERA. The 26-year-old lefty has always been hittable with a career .316 BABIP and 1.2 HR/9.
The biggest issue for Ray is those walks. The change in his control can reasonably be attributed to a strained oblique which cost him almost all of May and June. After coming back, his walk rate improved but has since ballooned this August.
Month: BB/9
Apr: 5.5
June: 3.0
July: 3.9
Aug: 6.9
The Diamondbacks and Ray are trying to take steps to solve the problem.
Ray and pitching coach Mike Butcher had been working to keep the lefty more in a straight line on his delivery, so that his plant leg faces directly toward home plate when it lands. It prevents him from throwing across his body.
“Just a small change like that makes a huge difference,” Ray said. “It honestly feels fine either way, but just the result of the pitch isn’t exactly where I want it to be when I close myself off.”
ā¦.
“The biggest thing that he is working on right now is the consistency and command and the consistency of his pitches,” Arizona manager Torey Lovullo said.
So, a change may be coming but it usually takes two to three games according to Brian Bannister. While Ray only allowed one run in the aforementioned start, he still walked four batters in five innings.
Ray has been trying to turn a corner all year, but he canāt get away from the walks. I feel heās still dealing with the oblique issue, but he wants to āhelpā his team. Even if he does turn it around, his owners will only have a couple starts left until the seasonās end.
After digging into Rayās profile, I felt like a hypocrite. Over a month ago, I dropped Danny Duffy as I saw no signs of him helping my team. I was fine in strikeouts, but the walks and subsequent runs allowed were just killing my ratios. His ~4.0 BB/9 was just a drag and his near 5.00 ERA matched his ERA estimators. I just thought to myself who would roster such a player and just let him go.
At Baseball Prospectus, Zach Steinhorn, who is in my league, writes a weekly review of the Tout Wars moves and he said the following about me dropping Duffy:
Seeing Duffyās name in the waiver wire pool did seem strange being that he was widely viewed as a quality mid-rotation starter in mixed leagues heading into the season.
It was almost the same reaction I had with Ray. If an owner releases a perceived asset, especially one they spent preseason resources on, theyāve usually done their homework.
Another example Iāve observed over the years is a week after two owners make a trade, a player or two get immediately dropped. Some owners make trades knowing that one part is just baggage to help balance a roster. Most of the time, the dropped player was highly touted before the season, but his value dropped from a loss of production and/or playing time.
Owners trading assets have been following the droppers closely and have a better idea of their true value. The deeper player knowledge doesn’t just occur with trades but also with waiver wire drops. The owner must get over the suck costs, accept defeat, and move past the player.
This thought process has got me thinking that too much emphasis is put on who to add and maybe more needs to be put on who to drop. Especially, players who came into the season with lofty expectations and/or costs. Which players are owners are moving past and why?
Iām going to give the experiment a try in my next article and look at the most dropped players. I might weight the drops on how much the decision is based on the playerās current talent, sunk cost, and/or snap judgment.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
For hitters, playing time has been a big factor this season (esp. if you have the cubs & dodgers hitters). I cut Puig in a shallow league even though his peripherals are fine because it seems unlikely he’ll get everyday playing time and a decent lineup spot. He could be a 5×5 stud if he wasn’t on the Dodgers with everyday playing time and a spot at the top of the lineup.
I did the same with both Ian Happ and Eric Thames – I like their upside and can put up with the warts, but I can’t put up with guys who play 2 or 3 days a week.
I’m in the same boat with Gibson and Castillo. This current week is inconsequential and I have a bye next week, so I have time to hold and be patient. It’s also limited moves, so I can’t go crazy streaming every day. During my 2 week playoffs Gibson faces KC and is @DET while Castillo is @CHC and @MIA. Definitely good match ups for Gibson but he has been garbage this past month. Thoughts?
I assume you meant “sunk costs,” but I think in Ray’s case this year “suck costs” is just as accurate š
In a redraft league we are in āruthless cuts / Hail Mary playsā mode. If you like matchups the rest of the way or just need a healthier body than your dinged up 5th+ round pick playing out the string on a non-contender you do that move. Benched players in your starting lineup are soul crushing this time of year.
Ray is not really that sort of cut to me in anything but a shallow redraft but iād be interested to know who he was dropped for and who the best available SP on the wire were.
The owner may be going bullpen on the way out since he picked up Melancon and CMart
I have held on to Ozuna all year in a 10 team dynasty. I had to trade for Upton to start in his place. When Ozuna comes off the DL this weekend, I am thinking of cutting him.
Anyway, those of us in dynasty/keeper leagues often see name brand assets get cut this time of year, available for pennies on the dollar vs. their auction costs. When discussing who to cut, don’t forget to discuss rebound potential for the following year.
I disagree on Robbie Ray, mostly for reasons you mentioned. His peripherals suggest that he has been unlucky and he has an elite K rate. If he can pitch to a 4.00 ERA, he will still be plenty valuable. Hereās a few that I would drop though.
Jon Lester
Jose Quintana
Eric Thames
Ryan Braun
Jonathan Schoop
Kyle Seager
Adam Jones
Quintana has been murdering me once a week. You have to play him because the innings, but the guy never delivers a quality start.
Muncy was losing PAs for a couple weeks, too, but seems to have hit back into favor.
Iām confused as to why you have to keep playing him because of the innings. Do you have a minimum innings quota that you have to hit? No other starting pitchers on the waiver wire? Are you trying to keep your bullpen fresh? Quintana has been terrible all year. K-rate is down, walk rate is way up and his peripherals suggest heās actually been worse than the numbers indicate.
Since they started benching Muncy, the Dodgers have been losing. Muncy was a gift from the baseball gods, and they are very displeased with how this gift has been treated.
More than .5 BB per inning is so massive that anyone who has pitched (including pitching coaches) cannot possibly believe that mechanics alone are the answer and it must certainly be an approach/mental thing in some respect whether it is aggression or trusting your stuff, or a good catcher from a game-calling or framing perspective.
The main thing you can learn from dropping Robbie Ray is what regret feels like.
Robbie Ray past 4 years: Siera, average fastball velocity, strike %, swinging strike %
2015 – 4.05, 93.3, 62.4%, 9%
2016 – 3.59, 94.1, 64.3%, 11.6%
2017 – 3.53, 94.3, 62.5%, 14.2%
2018 – 3.99, 93.4, 61.9%, 12.3%
Projected era going forward: 4.03 zips, 3.68 steamer, 4.04 the bat. all project 11 ks or more.
I think there’s a small chance he’s hurt. As jeff’s previous research has shown, decreased zone % and strike % indicate increased injury risk. If he’s healthy, all signs point toward a strong finish–a high 3s era and a truck load of Ks.
Note that xFIP tells the same story as siera…
Those projections for ERA are not an asset and the projections for WHIP are a clear detriment. If you rely on the projections, there is still a strong argument to drop Ray if you need a marginal upgrade in WHIP more than Ray’s projected 2 wins and 36 K.
He is projected 37th best pitcher ROS in fangraphs auction calculator based on his depth charts (combined steamer and zips) projections (default settings).
I agree he’s potentially drop-able…in 4 team leagues.
The bat is a bit lower on Ray, but still has him 95th overall best pitcher ROS. He should be owned in most formats.
When you draft Rob Ray, you have an asset, and a problem. Now you need to draft one or two pitchers that don’t walk so many hitters, even if they have less Ks. Sean Manaea maybe. Carlos Rodon now that Sean is injured
The guy that dumped Ray knew who he was when he picked him up, but hoped he would change, and made no plan for what’ve to do if he didn’t change.
Like my ex!
Corey Dickerson has been a free agent in a couple of my leagues for months. I assume due to lack of dongs, the average just isn’t attractive enough to give up someone with more power.
Immediately dropped Andrus after reading this.
I was thinking the same thing. In H2H leagues during the playoffs, the hot hand is more important than draft day value. For example, right now I’d drop Andrus for Rosario
Andrus took a little bit to get going coming back from injury. And recently he has hit a wall. But post-break through August 18 he hit .322/.352/.466. Cherry picked end point. Maybe his elbow is achy. But his overall stat line is dragged down by a bad stretch when he came back from a broken elbow, and then a slump in the last 2 weeks of August. Not sure that means you should drop him.
Unlike Ray, Andrus is NOT performing in the way you would expect. SBs and HRs are gone. I can see why a broken arm can sap HR power but I would be happy with just SBs. Mondesi is already delivering so why wait for Andrus? Hit the road, jack!
3rd to last paragraph… belive you meant “sunk cost” instead of “suck cost.” Though a player underperforming definitely has a suck cost as well.
I dropped Jonathan Schoop just a few weeks after trading for him in a 16-team OBP keeper with H2H playoffs. The struggles were one thing, but what really did it for me was his gradual loss of playing time in Milwaukee. I can deal with struggles to a certain degree, but once you’re not playing every day, then I’m ready to cut the cord. Playing time problems also has me close to cutting Evan Gattis even though he’s been one of the top performers at catcher.
Of course with pitchers you don’t usually have that same playing time consideration. I’m getting very close to cutting Chris Archer in the same league mentioned above. I still believe in the skills, but at some point I’m thinking maybe he just needs an offseason to reset.
Ray was must avoid at his pre-draft ADP this season. Sure he had a great year but paying that adp for someone who historically walked that high and had babip over .300 was ridiculous. He will however be a nice buy/draft low candiate in late rounds next year since almost everyone will stay away from him. But buy only to hold and watch before inserting him in the line up.
I dropped Ray in our 20 Team Keeper/Dynasty league as his price was $35. He has still not been roster but someone may take a chance. Iām in forth place and likely cannot catch our leader but was at our max salary cap of 435. This allowed me to pick up Alex Cobb and work some other prospect pieces onto my team. Ray had been on my bench for the last 3 weeks.
I cut Matt Carpenter when he was at rock bottom earlier this year. In my defense it is a keeper league where I felt like even if he did struggle back to respectability he wouldn’t be a keeper … but … has to be a case study for this …
“The owner must get over the suck [sic] costs, accept defeat, and move past the player.” There are surely some ex-Carpenter owners who are having a hard time hearing this. I agree with your logic in general, but at some point if you’re bought into a player’s peripherals you’ve got to ride or die with them, correct (playing time issues set aside for this argument)? If you’re not going to believe in your own analysis, what *are* you going to believe in?
Agreed. Drops are arguably more important than adds. We always talk about adds, but who are you going to drop? Having the fat trimmed from a roster allows for all kinds of speculative adds. Its one thing to look back and say how great it would have been to have J Aguillar, but the team that has him is the one that added him before the big breakout because they had an open roster spot. It is a lot like the silly idea where the buys outnumber the sells – good luck with that! Aggressive and preemptive selling is probably the most important transaction in fantasy. It is a real gamble though!