It’s time to overly exaggerate some of my pre-season hunches and create some BOLD predictions.

Note: For the rankings, I will use our auction calculator. For ADP, I’m using the NFBC ADP from 12 Main Event leagues which drafted from March 22nd to March 25th.

1. Jung Ho Kang will be a top-10 starting third baseman by season’s end.

He is being drafted as the 26th third baseman off the board this past weekend. This prediction was easy. In 2015, he was the 15th overall third baseman in 467 PA. Why not the same production in 600 PA?

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I’m experimenting with a new article format this year. Instead of concentrating on the most added players, I’m going to concentrate on those poor souls owners are throwing in the towel on. Most of the discarded players will have been demoted to the minor or dinged up. It’s the few who don’t fit into either of these two categories who I will focus on. Sadly, there aren’t many this first week.

To find which players are being dropped, I’m going to use the NFBC Main Event leagues. They are 15-team roto leagues which have some depth and most of the owners will be trying since each posted a $1K+ entry fee. The league will contain active owners making overall trends easier to spot. This week, I have the adds and drops from only 18 leagues since some leagues haven’t drafted yet and included my top-three choices at the end.

Injured List

Jason Kipnis: 7

Kipnis and the scrubs the Indians are using in the infield should be monitored closely. Kipnis should get his job back once healthy and he could be a reasonable buy a week early for a team needing infield help.

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After just going over the National League lineups, it’s time for the American league. Again, my analysis was to focus on the lineups used, not manager speak.

Note: This article was submitted late on Wednesday for editing so the second Oakland-Seattle lineups were not available to analyze.

Baltimore

• The Orioles will have Cedric Mullins II and Jonathan Villar in the top two spots. The other spots are a mess of unrosterable players.

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I decided to dive into the latest Spring Training lineups to see if any possible trends are emerging. Today, I’ll start with the National League.

Note: I just looked through the lineups and didn’t read up on each team. There is probably a good chance the manager has stated a different plan during the season.

Arizona

• It’s tough to really get a good read on a set lineup but Wilmer Flores, Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Steven Souza Jr., David Peralta, and Jake Lamb are in the top-six spots in random order.
• Ildemaro Vargas looks to be the team’s Utility player and is probably relevant in 20-team or deeper leagues with a 10/10/.270 projection if playing a full season.

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I’m headed back from a weekend in New York City after participating in the 15-team Tout Wars mixed auction and a NFBC Main Event league. It was great catching up with everyone and meeting some new faces such as our first president. The weekend didn’t completely consisit of bagels and beers. I had work to do and compiled a couple of teams. Here are my thoughts which other fantasy owners may find helpful.

Pre-weekend thoughts (written before either event).

• Historically the Tout Wars hitter/pitcher split has been a steady 70%/30%. With pitchers being taken earlier and earlier this season, I wonder if this split will change. I’m creating my values with the 70/30 split but know I may need to adjust the split on the fly. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m going to focus on position battles until the season starts and possibly into the season. Most of the early season breakouts happen because of additional playing time.

Pirates Third Base

Jung Ho Kang vs Colin Moran

Other analysts and I probably didn’t give Kang enough love but he’s coming out firing with an OPS twice that of Moran. The 31-year-old Kang had a couple of acceptable seasons with double-digit home runs and an OBP near .350. He didn’t play any last season because of a DUI in South Korea and wasn’t able to obtain a visa. He seems to have not missed a beat.

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Velocity Readings

● I’m continuing to track all fastball velocities on this spreadsheet which is updated when I feel like it.

● Martin Perez’s made a few changes to his delivery and as a side effect, his fastball is up a couple of ticks.

Pérez said he’s using his hips more in his delivery after working with new pitching coach Wes Johnson and his knowledge of biomechanics. Though Pérez insists he’s not necessarily focused on adding velocity, his fastball showed consistent velocity around 95 mph for the second straight start — up from an average of 92.8 mph last season, per Statcast.

“Before, I just used my arms,” Pérez said. “Now, I’m using all my body, and you guys can see the results. I don’t miss inside anymore. One or two, but before, I missed — like I was trying to use all of my upper body. Now, I just stay on the line and just throw the ball in front of my eyes.”

It could be an improvement in his results with his fastball getting the following results at different velocities.

MPH: SwStr%
90: 3.7%
91: 3.9%
92: 3.5%
93: 5.5%
94: 4.9%
95: 7.4%
96: 10.1%

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If two outfielders are projected for identical stats but one is also qualified at first base, the one with multi-positional eligibility will have additional value. The player gives an owner more flexibility during the draft or auction, allows the owner to maximize at-bats or games played during the season, increasing roster flexibility by having more bench spots to use for pitching, and owners can focus on talent versus position with waiver wire acquisitions. The question being posed today, how much is this extra flexibility worth?

It’s not a simple answer. Over the next few days, various RotoGraph authors, including myself, will provide our takes. Will we come to a solid answer? Probably not or an analyst would have figured it out and the adjustment would already be universally incorporated. We just want to put our best foot forward.

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I just wrote about some of the players I did not know about from my LABR AL-only league. It’s time for the NL players I didn’t recognize. I figured there would be more on the list because I didn’t do the pre-auction prep work needed to roster full teams. I was wrong. I knew quite a few but a few names didn’t initially

Here are the full AL and NL-only lists.

Most fantasy owners may not agree with the recent #LABR auction values. They may not be even close to rostering as many players. BUT they should look over the players taken and find out why an "expert" wanted them.

AL: https://t.co/uCKWquXmXr

NL: https://t.co/pMafCbEK4O pic.twitter.com/4cCa0yTlU9

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) March 4, 2019

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This past Saturday night I endured Phoenix’s sun and mid-70’s temperatures (Ed. note: ENDURED?? More like basked in!!!) to participate in this year’s AL LABR acution. While I had been in the room before to help Eno Sarris out, it was my first time under the gun. The first item I noticed was that everyone in the room (besides Eno … don’t remind him, it’s a sore subject) had won at least one major industry league (Tout Wars or LABR) and most multiple times. Almost immediately I thought of this line from Rounders:

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