Week Five FAAB Projections (4/20/19)

I believe there are some diamonds in the rough available this week. It’s tough to know who exactly. Will Michael Chavis grab Bostons second base job? Is Scott Kingery going to play full time? Will one of Robert Stephenson, Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly or Diego Castilla get Saves? Maybe one or two.

As usual, I use ownership rates from CBS since some of their leagues are quickdraw leagues where players can be picked up at any time. The FAAB estimates are based off 15-team mixed NFBC leagues with $1000 FAAB. First, Here are the pitchers who were owned in fewer than 50% of leagues and have seen the highest jumps in ownership.

Pitcher FAAB Estimates
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Erik Swanson SP | SEA 1% 10% 9% $27
Nick Anderson RP | MIA 1% 5% 4% $44
Robert Stephenson SP | CIN 1% 4% 3% $44
Jerad Eickhoff RP | PHI 2% 18% 16% $34
Trevor Hildenberger RP | MIN 2% 10% 8% $48
Brandon Brennan SP | SEA 2% 6% 4% $44
Antonio Senzatela SP | COL 3% 10% 7% $26
Homer Bailey SP | KC 5% 15% 10% $28
Martin Perez SP | MIN 5% 12% 7% $26
Jeremy Hellickson SP | WAS 10% 19% 9% $28
John Gant SP | STL 10% 19% 9% $28
Roenis Elias RP | SEA 11% 27% 16% $66
Jorge Lopez RP | KC 11% 16% 5% $26
Hector Neris RP | PHI 15% 24% 9% $52
Lance Lynn SP | TEX 15% 24% 9% $28
Zach Davies SP | MIL 17% 45% 28% $57
Jordan Lyles RP | PIT 17% 40% 23% $47
Tyler Mahle SP | CIN 20% 27% 7% $28
Ryan Pressly RP | HOU 21% 25% 4% $47
CC Sabathia SP | NYY 22% 35% 13% $33
Diego Castillo RP | TB 24% 28% 4% $47
Jeff Samardzija SP | SF 26% 36% 10% $31
Brett Anderson SP | OAK 29% 48% 19% $43
Mike Soroka SP | ATL 31% 46% 15% $38
A.J. Minter RP | ATL 33% 54% 21% $47
Trevor Cahill SP | LAA 33% 43% 10% $33
Blake Parker RP | MIN 34% 46% 12% $63
Nick Margevicius SP | SD 35% 52% 17% $41
Touki Toussaint SP | ATL 38% 74% 36% $84
Wade Miley SP | HOU 41% 47% 6% $31
Jeremy Jeffress RP | MIL 42% 48% 6% $56
Frankie Montas SP | OAK 43% 65% 22% $52
Luke Weaver SP | ARI 43% 58% 15% $41
Mike Minor SP | TEX 50% 75% 25% $61

Notes:

  • If any player has any kind of popularity, it’ll likely take a $25 bid to roster them.
  • Roenis Elias has four Saves this season and the last two for Seattle. He just might have the closer’s role right now.
  • Owners are speculating that Trey Hildenberger will take over has the Twins closer with 14.3 K/9 and 0.00 ERA. The sub-90 mph fastball is probably the biggest reason he hasn’t been given the opportunity this season.
  • Some owners must have already started celebrating 4/20 picking up Hellickson with a two-start week with the first at Colorado. Pass (the fat one).
  • John Gant? While he has a 0.00 ERA, all his ERA estimators are at over 4.00.
  • Hector Neris is a great Saves spec and should be reasonably priced.
  • He’s not listed but Addison Russell is about to begin his rehab assignment after his suspension. I’m not sure how much he’ll with Daniel Descalso posting a .876 OPS. Russell’s career high was .738. Maybe he’ll come back as a utility bat.

And now the hitters

Hitter FAAB Estimates
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Austin Dean LF | MIA 1% 3% 2% $26
Melky Cabrera RF | PIT 2% 5% 3% $26
Howie Kendrick 2B | WAS 4% 10% 6% $29
Hunter Dozier 1B | KC 5% 40% 35% $127
Renato Nunez 3B | BAL 5% 11% 6% $29
David Fletcher 2B | LAA 5% 8% 3% $27
Derek Dietrich LF | CIN 5% 7% 2% $26
Carlos Gonzalez RF | CLE 8% 11% 3% $27
Michael Chavis 3B | BOS 9% 20% 11% $38
Dwight Smith LF | BAL 10% 33% 23% $74
Scott Kingery SS | PHI 11% 31% 20% $64
Christian Vazquez C | BOS 11% 17% 6% $31
Jason Kipnis 2B | CLE 11% 14% 3% $28
Leury Garcia LF | CHW 12% 18% 6% $31
Mitch Garver C | MIN 16% 34% 18% $61
Daniel Descalso 2B | CHC 17% 20% 3% $30
Manuel Margot CF | SD 18% 25% 7% $36
Kevin Pillar CF | SF 18% 23% 5% $33
Delino DeShields CF | TEX 18% 22% 4% $32
Carter Kieboom SS | WAS 19% 24% 5% $34
Avisail Garcia RF | TB 21% 28% 7% $38
Freddy Galvis SS | TOR 27% 44% 17% $67
Josh Phegley C | OAK 32% 66% 34% $154
Mitch Moreland 1B | BOS 32% 38% 6% $44
Chad Pinder LF | OAK 32% 37% 5% $43
Alex Verdugo RF | LAD 35% 43% 8% $51
Alex Gordon LF | KC 40% 64% 24% $111
Jonathan Lucroy C | LAA 41% 45% 4% $49
Kevin Kiermaier CF | TB 43% 48% 5% $53
Christian Walker 1B | ARI 44% 52% 8% $60
Brandon Lowe 2B | TB 46% 71% 25% $125
Franmil Reyes RF | SD 47% 55% 8% $64

Notes

  • If available in a league, Hunter Dozier, Josh Phegley, and Alex Gordon will bring a hefty price.
  • Dwight Smith Jr. is getting some attention with his three homers and steals. While it’s unlikely for the production to continue, he’s a must own in all formats in the small instance he does keep it up.
  • Jason Kipnis is coming off the DL and batting high in the Indians lineup.
  • The Red Sox promoted Michael Chavis to the majors and usually, highly touted prospects are popular, but not in this instance. I wonder if the lineup seems loaded but the three second basemen are on the IL. Also, Rafael Devers has just a .665 OPS which is near replacement level.
  • Scott Kingery (1.176 OPS) has been playing short with Jean Segura on the IL, hence the demand.

And for reference, here are the week-five bids from 2018 and last week.

2018 Week Five FAAB Bids
Name Count AVG
Mac Williamson 32 $58
JaCoby Jones 31 $51
Trevor Cahill 31 $47
Mark Canha 26 $24
Albert Almora 21 $122
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 20 $59
Darren O’Day 19 $40
Chad Bettis 19 $29
Junior Guerra 18 $50
Mitch Moreland 16 $25
Matt Wisler 16 $20
Brad Miller 15 $15
Jeremy Hellickson 14 $24
Jedd Gyorko 13 $15
Tyler Anderson 13 $14
Joe Jimenez 13 $30
Harrison Bader 13 $19
Matthew Boyd 11 $36
Steve Pearce 10 $19
Ryan Flaherty 10 $16
Tyler Flowers 10 $31
Ben Gamel 10 $21
Marco Gonzales 9 $26
Jason Vargas 9 $21
Daniel Robertson 9 $9
Dan Straily 9 $29
Adam Frazier 9 $16
Max Stassi 8 $7
Collin McHugh 7 $16
Luke Maile 7 $8
Robert Gsellman 7 $18
Joey Wendle 7 $21
Santiago Casilla 7 $11
Luis Valbuena 7 $16
Tyler Austin 6 $20
J.P. Crawford 6 $16
Jarlin Garcia 6 $24
Dixon Machado 6 $12
Amir Garrett 6 $10
Abraham Almonte 6 $9
Joe Musgrove 6 $28
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 6 $14
Joc Pederson 6 $12
Jason Heyward 6 $37
Miguel Rojas 6 $9
Adam Ottavino 5 $38
Tony Watson 5 $8
Bartolo Colon 5 $15
Chad Kuhl 5 $21
Denard Span 5 $46
Ryan McMahon 5 $21
Victor Martinez 5 $18
Ronald Guzman 5 $29
Daniel Mengden 5 $61
Andrew Cashner 5 $10
Jesus Aguilar 5 $44

 

2019 Week Four FAAB Bids
Name Avg Cost Leagues
Jordan Lyles $42 32
Hunter Dozier $63 31
Josh Phegley $37 29
Touki Toussaint $155 26
Austin Dean $35 22
Trevor Hildenberger $33 21
Zach Davies $19 20
Clay Buchholz $24 19
CC Sabathia $56 18
Jason Kipnis $34 18
Melky Cabrera $21 18
Nick Anderson $9 18
Wily Peralta $49 18
Renato Nunez $36 17
Lance Lynn $30 15
Neil Walker $8 15
David Fletcher $18 14
Daniel Descalso $20 13
Colin Moran $11 12
Howie Kendrick $16 12
Tyson Ross $7 12
Brian Goodwin $11 11
Chris Owings $17 11
JaCoby Jones $18 11
Martin Perez $30 11
Brett Anderson $13 10
Derek Dietrich $15 10
Homer Bailey $15 10
Carlos Gonzalez $29 9
Daniel Vogelbach $340 9
Ervin Santana $12 9
Jeremy Hellickson $33 9
Luis Urias $12 9
Roenis Elias $23 9
Austin Romine $5 8
Christian Vazquez $8 8
Dwight Smith Jr. $59 8
Jarrod Dyson $33 8
Jorge Lopez $6 8
Mike Leake $24 8
Mitch Garver $35 8
Richard Lovelady $22 8
Adam Wainwright $24 7
Ivan Nova $28 7
Jesus Luzardo $14 7
Justin Bour $36 7
Robbie Grossman $18 7
Billy McKinney $10 6
Brian McCann $15 6
Erik Swanson $8 6
J.D. Davis $21 6
Jimmy Nelson $37 6
Ryan Yarbrough $20 6
Scott Kingery $32 6
Chris Davis $7 5
Joey Wendle $42 5
Lucas Giolito $23 5
Michael A. Taylor $21 5
Mike Fiers $18 5
Mike Soroka $95 5
Nick Margevicius $49 5
Raimel Tapia $27 5
Tyler Mahle $40 5

 

We hoped you liked reading Week Five FAAB Projections (4/20/19) by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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