Mixed League FAAB Estimates (Week 3)

by
April 6, 2019

We are another week into the season and it’s an interesting week of FAAB bidding. Some bids over 10% may occur if the player wasn’t rostered during the last week’s FAAB process. Otherwise, it’s some nice popup names as playing time begins to settle down.

As usual, the bids are estimates for the 15-team NFBC Main Event leagues which use $1000 in FAAB budget and a $1 minimum bis. CBS’s ownership rates are used since daily pickup leagues are allowed in some of their leagues so the ownership rate can increase before the weekly FAAB transactions run. I used a cutoff at 25% ownership in the previous week to add the player.

Week 3 Hitter FAAB Estimates
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Alex Avila C | ARI 1% 4% 3% $27
Dwight Smith LF | BAL 2% 8% 6% $29
Leury Garcia LF | CHW 2% 5% 3% $27
Freddy Galvis SS | TOR 4% 7% 3% $27
Christian Walker 1B | ARI 6% 44% 38% $147
Alex Gordon LF | KC 7% 18% 11% $38
Rowdy Tellez 1B | TOR 7% 16% 9% $34
Christian Vazquez C | BOS 7% 14% 7% $32
Hanley Ramirez 1B | CLE 8% 20% 12% $40
Yandy Diaz 3B | TB 9% 37% 28% $95
Nick Ahmed SS | ARI 9% 18% 9% $35
Clint Frazier LF | NYY 10% 18% 8% $34
Mitch Moreland 1B | BOS 11% 15% 4% $30
Ronald Guzman 1B | TEX 12% 14% 2% $29
Carter Kieboom SS | WAS 14% 17% 3% $30
Dansby Swanson SS | ATL 17% 39% 22% $76
Kolten Wong 2B | STL 18% 75% 57% $312
Ian Kinsler 2B | SD 21% 25% 4% $34
Starlin Castro 2B | MIA 24% 34% 10% $46
Kevin Kiermaier CF | TB 24% 28% 4% $36
Jay Bruce RF | SEA 25% 50% 25% $97
Adam Frazier 2B | PIT 25% 30% 5% $38

 

Week 3 Pitcher FAAB Estimates
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
David Hess SP | BAL 1% 12% 11% $29
Trent Thornton RP | TOR 1% 10% 9% $28
Aaron Brooks RP | OAK 1% 7% 6% $26
Nick Margevicius SP | SD 2% 10% 8% $27
Matt Moore RP | DET 2% 8% 6% $26
Anthony Swarzak RP | SEA 3% 29% 26% $100
Ian Kennedy SP | KC 3% 14% 11% $55
Brett Anderson SP | OAK 5% 20% 15% $34
Yonny Chirinos RP | TB 10% 33% 23% $46
Diego Castillo RP | TB 10% 18% 8% $51
Max Fried SP | ATL 11% 35% 24% $48
Sandy Alcantara SP | MIA 12% 50% 38% $82
Felix Hernandez SP | SEA 12% 18% 6% $27
Marco Estrada SP | OAK 13% 26% 13% $32
Lou Trivino RP | OAK 14% 20% 6% $49
Lucas Giolito SP | CHW 15% 41% 26% $53
Blake Parker RP | MIN 15% 23% 8% $52
Matt Shoemaker SP | TOR 17% 63% 46% $110
Taylor Rogers RP | MIN 17% 26% 9% $54
Jordan Zimmermann SP | DET 20% 44% 24% $50
Frankie Montas SP | OAK 20% 33% 13% $34
Jake Odorizzi SP | MIN 22% 41% 19% $42
Jeremy Jeffress RP | MIL 25% 36% 11% $59
A.J. Minter RP | ATL 25% 32% 7% $53

Notes:

  • The minimum bid for a “popular” player is still around $25. There is a little more movement this week and some trends are beginning to emerge.
  • Matt Shoemaker, Marco Estrada, Brett Anderson, and Jordan Zimmermann each have two starts this upcoming week. Another interesting arm with a two-start week is Vince Velasquez. He has Washington at home (vs Anibal Sanchez) and then a start in Miami (vs. Jose Urena).
  • Christian Walker and Yandy Diaz may be the big bids this week in most deeper leagues because of their availability.
  • Kolten Wong, if available, could be tops in some leagues. I used him for his breakout week and then released him based on his weekly projections at Razzball. Since then the .257/.327/.387 career hitter is hitting just .200/.333/.700. He’s still a bad hitter. With the game being a weekly league, I wanted a better-projected hitter.
  • No “new” bullpen situations to gamble on. It’s still the various shaky ones like Kansas City and Minnesota.

For reference, here are the 2018 Week 3 bids for reference (i.e. the Jacob Barnes/Bud Norris week)

2018 FAAB NFBC Main Event FAAB Bids
Name Count Average Bid
Jacob Barnes 34 $206
Matt Albers 33 $68
Yonny Chirinos 32 $52
Christian Villanueva 28 $44
Franchy Cordero 23 $25
Ben Lively 20 $20
Preston Tucker 19 $31
Yolmer Sanchez 19 $30
Aledmys Diaz 18 $21
Luis Valbuena 18 $18
Anthony Santander 18 $21
Ben Zobrist 16 $22
Dan Vogelbach 16 $37
Joey Lucchesi 15 $56
Bud Norris 13 $20
Josh Fields 13 $15
Jose Alvarado 13 $19
Jeremy Jeffress 13 $21
Drew Robinson 12 $9
Rajai Davis 12 $20
Tyler Austin 11 $38
Adam Ottavino 10 $3
Jose Urena 9 $19
Cory Spangenberg 9 $7
Nick Ahmed 9 $16
Andrew Heaney 8 $36
Jarlin Garcia 8 $16
Dustin Fowler 8 $56
Robert Gsellman 8 $15
Brian Anderson 7 $50
Jake Marisnick 7 $15
Jason Heyward 7 $24
Chad Kuhl 7 $26
Derek Fisher 7 $27
Tyler Anderson 7 $24
Jordan Hicks 7 $13
Matt Joyce 7 $28
Colin Moran 7 $122
Sergio Romo 7 $8
Jim Johnson 6 $7
Niko Goodrum 6 $28
Carson Fulmer 6 $17
Adam Wainwright 6 $6
Nick Markakis 6 $29
Andrew Cashner 6 $18
Andrew Triggs 6 $48
Joe Jimenez 6 $8
Kevin Plawecki 6 $13
Jhoulys Chacin 5 $8
Francisco Liriano 5 $25
Ben Gamel 5 $10
Ryan Flaherty 5 $15
Nick Pivetta 5 $73
Seth Lugo 5 $8
Amir Garrett 5 $18
Tommy Kahnle 5 $18
Jason Vargas 5 $11
Carlos Asuaje 5 $8





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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chadmember
5 years ago

Not only is this article superb, it’s even better because it’s on the weekend. Thank you!

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Jeff Zimmermanmember
5 years ago
Reply to  chad

Thanks for reading

5