Week 4 Mixed League FAAB Estimates

It is a bi-polar week for possible FAAB bids. Not one arm stands out as a must bid. On the hitting side, a few wallet busters exist with some possible fierce bidding.  I’ll start with the hitters.

I’m a little under the weather so I provide as much information as possible and owners can make their own estimates. I might add some more analysis tomorrow morning.

As usual, I utilize CBS’s ownership rates to find potential movers since CBS allows daily pickups. The projected costs are for the 15-team, 30-player roster NFBC Main Event teams. Individual owners are going to need to adjust the values to their own league size and tendencies.

Week 4 Hitter FAAB Estimates
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Josh Phegley C | OAK 1% 26% 25% $76
Derek Dietrich LF | CIN 2% 5% 3% $27
J.D. Davis 3B | NYM 3% 12% 9% $33
Daniel Vogelbach 1B | SEA 4% 60% 56% $281
Leury Garcia LF | CHW 5% 12% 7% $31
Freddy Galvis SS | TOR 8% 27% 19% $59
Brian Goodwin CF | LAA 9% 12% 3% $28
Mitch Garver C | MIN 10% 15% 5% $30
Daniel Descalso 2B | CHC 13% 17% 4% $30
Orlando Arcia SS | MIL 13% 16% 3% $29
Mitch Moreland 1B | BOS 15% 30% 15% $51
Jason Heyward RF | CHC 17% 59% 42% $186
Clint Frazier LF | NYY 18% 51% 33% $130
Chad Pinder LF | OAK 18% 30% 12% $46
Alex Gordon LF | KC 19% 36% 17% $60
Nick Ahmed SS | ARI 19% 33% 14% $51
Kevin Kiermaier CF | TB 28% 42% 14% $59
Adam Frazier 2B | PIT 30% 39% 9% $49
Alex Verdugo RF | LAD 31% 36% 5% $42
Brandon Belt 1B | SF 33% 40% 7% $47
Starlin Castro 2B | MIA 34% 37% 3% $42
Brandon Lowe 2B | TB 36% 42% 6% $48
Jorge Alfaro C | MIA 37% 50% 13% $66
Yandy Diaz 3B | TB 38% 65% 27% $124
Dansby Swanson SS | ATL 40% 76% 36% $180
Ramon Laureano CF | OAK 43% 46% 3% $50
Hunter Renfroe LF | SD 50% 60% 10% $73

Dan Vogelbach: Get ready to open the wallets. I could see some owners spend up to 50% of their budget if available. In 39 PA he has hit six homers with a .400/.513/1.133 slash line. It’s going to be nuts.

Jason Heyward: I may have been wrong about Heyward. Before a trip Milwaukee last week, he just had a .558 OPS but went off in Miller Park with a 2.060 OPS and three homers. I thought he might fall back to earth but had a 1.457 OPS against the Pirates. While his wOBA is 66 points higher than his xwOBA, it’s still a reasonable .393. While breaking the bank on Heyward may not be ideal, he won’t be cheap.

Clint Frazier: A .333/.353/.633 slash line in 34 PA means the demand will remain in leagues where he’s available. While I believe Frazier can be useful for a few weeks, he could head to the bench when the other Yankee outfielders get healthy.

Freddy Galvis: The Toronto shortstop is leading off. If owners wanted him on the cheap, they are a week late.

Josh Phegley: The career .227 hitter is now hitting .333 with three homers. Considering the wasteland that is the catcher pool, the move is defensible.

Week 4 Pitcher FAAB Estimates
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Richard Lovelady RP | KC 0% 5% 5% $46
Hector Neris RP | PHI 3% 14% 11% $54
Roenis Elias RP | SEA 3% 10% 7% $48
Tyson Ross SP | DET 4% 10% 6% $26
Ervin Santana SP | CHW 4% 8% 4% $25
John Gant SP | STL 5% 10% 5% $26
Tyler Mahle SP | CIN 6% 18% 12% $30
Jordan Lyles RP | PIT 6% 15% 9% $28
Spencer Turnbull SP | DET 9% 13% 4% $25
Craig Stammen RP | SD 9% 13% 4% $46
Nick Margevicius SP | SD 10% 32% 22% $44
Trent Thornton RP | TOR 11% 28% 17% $37
Mike Leake SP | SEA 13% 38% 25% $50
Merrill Kelly SP | ARI 15% 35% 20% $42
Derek Holland SP | SF 15% 22% 7% $27
Adam Wainwright SP | STL 16% 22% 6% $27
CC Sabathia SP | NYY 16% 20% 4% $26
Felix Hernandez SP | SEA 18% 21% 3% $26
Diego Castillo RP | TB 19% 24% 5% $48
Brett Anderson SP | OAK 20% 29% 9% $30
Trevor Cahill SP | LAA 22% 32% 10% $31
Blake Parker RP | MIN 23% 33% 10% $31
Mike Soroka SP | ATL 25% 30% 5% $28
Vince Velasquez SP | PHI 26% 38% 12% $33
Anthony Swarzak RP | SEA 30% 49% 19% $82
Ryan Brasier RP | BOS 32% 49% 17% $76
Yonny Chirinos RP | TB 33% 56% 23% $52
Frankie Montas SP | OAK 34% 42% 8% $31
Max Fried SP | ATL 36% 79% 43% $106
Jeremy Jeffress RP | MIL 36% 42% 6% $54
Aaron Sanchez SP | TOR 42% 54% 12% $37
Mike Minor SP | TEX 43% 49% 6% $32
Jordan Zimmermann SP | DET 45% 55% 10% $36

Max Fried: He is the only starter possibly generating a large percentage in leagues he’s available.

Ervin Santana, Jordon Lyles, Mike Leake, Tyler Mahle, Franky Montas, Aaron Sanchez, Mike Minor, and Max Fried. Each should be a two-start pitcher.

Hector Neris, Craig Stammen, and Roenis Elias: Save speculation takes a much-needed break this week but if owners are still grinding these three are popular adds. Neris is by far my top option.

Mike Leake: I don’t get his popularity. It’s not that good of a two-step next week against the Indians and at the Angels.

It’s just a boring week for available pitchers. I’m sure someone will go off tomorrow and get owners all excited over nothing. Here are last week’s adds and the adds from the same week a year ago.

2018 Week 4 FAAB Bids
Name Avg Bid Count
Jurickson Profar $66 31
Zack Wheeler $81 27
Nick Tropeano $48 27
Teoscar Hernandez $124 26
Ronald Guzman $87 21
Adam Ottavino $34 20
Bud Norris $99 20
J.P. Crawford $39 20
Andrew Cashner $26 18
Miguel Rojas $23 18
Steve Pearce $16 16
Anibal Sanchez $15 15
Jarlin Garcia $44 15
Sergio Romo $11 14
Junior Guerra $24 14
Ben Zobrist $38 14
Homer Bailey $25 13
Chad Bettis $15 12
Hernan Perez $19 12
Aledmys Diaz $54 11
Luis Valbuena $34 10
Adam Frazier $16 10
Brian Goodwin $25 10
Tyler Naquin $15 9
Ben Gamel $21 8
Bartolo Colon $26 8
Rajai Davis $18 8
Max Stassi $8 8
Daniel Mengden $20 8
Nicky Delmonico $26 8
Adrian Gonzalez $8 8
Dan Vogelbach $36 7
Nick Williams $41 7
Ryan Flaherty $12 7
Howie Kendrick $31 7
Franchy Cordero $209 7
Drew Steckenrider $32 7
Dan Straily $18 7
Gleyber Torres $77 6
Francisco Liriano $32 6
Devin Mesoraco $6 6
Martin Maldonado $14 6
Jose Alvarado $6 6
Victor Martinez $14 6
Wilmer Flores $12 6
Nick Ahmed $18 6
Christian Villanueva $66 6
Andrew Heaney $29 6
Brent Suter $27 6
Pedro Severino $22 5
Brandon Nimmo $40 5
Matt Joyce $10 5
Adam Wainwright $16 5
Danny Valencia $11 5
Steven Brault $20 5
Tyler Flowers $19 5
CC Sabathia $24 5
2019 Week 3 FAAB Bids
Name Avg Bid Count
Clint Frazier $165 37
Hector Neris $104 37
Trent Thornton $51 33
Daniel Vogelbach $55 29
Freddy Galvis $30 27
Jason Heyward $67 27
Wilmer Difo $29 27
J.D. Davis $16 26
Mark Reynolds $35 21
Tyler Mahle $14 21
Robbie Grossman $14 19
Mike Leake $18 18
Raimel Tapia $37 18
Spencer Turnbull $58 18
Christian Walker $140 17
Nick Margevicius $36 17
Leury Garcia $34 15
Adam Conley $24 14
Blake Swihart $29 14
Alex Verdugo $83 13
Brett Anderson $9 13
Jordan Zimmermann $35 13
Brian Goodwin $19 12
Derek Dietrich $28 12
Mitch Moreland $40 12
Nick Ahmed $33 12
David Fletcher $11 11
Eric Thames $25 11
Jon Duplantier $8 11
Daniel Descalso $4 10
Dwight Smith Jr. $14 10
Marco Estrada $20 10
Melky Cabrera $14 10
Russell Martin $10 10
Felix Hernandez $12 9
Jarrod Dyson $29 9
Renato Nunez $18 9
Adam Wainwright $27 8
Felix Pena $21 8
Rowdy Tellez $59 8
Carson Kelly $23 7
Max Fried $120 7
Merrill Kelly $93 7
Brandon Crawford $11 6
Jason Kipnis $18 6
Ji-Man Choi $36 6
Josh Phegley $4 6
Ty Buttrey $8 6
Tyson Ross $21 6
Alex Gordon $45 5
Brad Boxberger $17 5
Daniel Robertson $10 5
Homer Bailey $5 5
Keon Broxton $9 5
Kyle Zimmer $15 5
Lou Trivino $9 5
Orlando Arcia $73 5
Ryan Brasier $317 5
Steven Duggar $108 5

We hoped you liked reading Week 4 Mixed League FAAB Estimates by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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The_BeardFlawlessTomLawlesscarterCubFanSkin Blues Recent comment authors
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thedonald
Member
Member
thedonald

How about Franmil Reyes?

mrmariner1
Member
mrmariner1

According to baseball savant’s expected stats based on statcast, Franmil Reyes has been the most unlucky hitter in all of baseball this season in terms of BA, SLG%, and wOBA… buy low if you can imo. Hitting at an average exit velo of 94.9 good for 17th best in the game right now. Just doesn’t have the results to show for it in this SSS

stonepie
Member
stonepie

he needs regular playing time. padres and indians should have worked something out…

The_Beard
Member
The_Beard

I’d rather have Reyes than Vogelbach. People lose their damn minds this early in the year.