In last week’s “Who is Being Dropped & Why”, I noted the following on Jeremy Hellickson

At home, he faced the Mets and Cubs and they lit him up. I went back over the previous two weeks in the NFBC Main Event to see if owners targeted him for this two-step. In the Main Event, owners typically look two weeks ahead on the two-start pitchers to get a jump on the crowd.

Week: Add Count, Avg Bid
8: 7, $14
9: 5, $5

First, I found it a little funny that the owners hoped to get a jump on the bidding paid more. Second, almost all of the Hellickson shares added were then dropped (12 of 13).

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Today’s data dump is brought to you by Paul Sporer and Justin Mason. In a recent Sleeper and the Bust episode, they were frustrated with not knowing how bidding in a 12-team league compared to a 15-teamer. I decided to go ahead and dive into the bidding in the NFBC’s 12-team Online Championship and the 15-team Main Event.

Note: I worked on this article over the weekend and only had this season’s FAAB data up to week 10. By the time the article publishes, week 11 will be available. The results wouldn’t change much with one additional week.

First, here is some background information on the league types. They are exactly identical in these ways:

• 23 total starters, 9 pitchers, 14 hitters
• $1000 in FAAB to spend with no Vickrey bidding and the results run on Sunday evening.
• No $0 bids.
• Seven bench spots.
• Both have a league and overall prize.

As for the differences, one is obvious, one has 12 teams and the other 15 teams. The less obvious one is that the 12-team leagues, on average, start drafting earlier in the preseason. For this reason, MLB teams have more time to churn their rosters and deal with injuries making the first FAAB period a little more aggressive compared to the 15-team leagues.

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I thought some weeks were boring but this week may take the cake. Some interesting rookie starters like Devin Smeltzer and Zach Plesac are available but it’s a whole lot of blah.

Again, here are the parameters for the values.

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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Angels

• Luis Rengifo has started eight straight games with no power (.034 ISO) and zero stolen base attempts.
• Since Zack Cozart went on the IL, the players in the lineup have stayed constant besides Jared Walsh giving Albert Pujols a break every third day or so.

Astros

• The lineup is in flux with George Springer, Carlos Correa, Aledmys Diaz, and Jose Altuve on the IL.
• Derek Fisher has started in four straight games, leading off twice.
• Tyler White, Tony Kemp, and Jack Mayfield are each seeing regular playing time.

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This past week’s Sunday night’s FAAB bidding was fairly calm after FAAB-ageddon. Even with else action, I find some of the drops interesting.

Note: Normally, I focus on players dropped in 10 or more leagues of the 38 but the five players dropped in nine leagues are the most interesting so I included them.

Injured

• Wilmer Flores (27): Fractured foot means bye-bye.
• Andrelton Simmons (20): I held onto Simmons utilizing the following news. Rostering him with limited roster space comes down to how many other injured players are on the team.

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I’m dragging right since I’m been dealing with groundwater flooding in my basement.  The analysis will be short to non-existent. I will provide the projected FAAB values along with last week’s bids and the bids from a year ago.

The guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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Angels

• The lineup was getting into a routine until Andrelton Simmons busted up his ankle and headed to the IL. Some of the regulars moved around with Lis Rengifo taking over the second base duties and hitting at the bottom of the lineup.
• Albert Pujols has started three of the last six games at first base with Jared Walsh the other three times. Pujols may already be wearing down.

Astros

• A once steady lineup has seen some changes with George Springer dealing with a bad back and Jose Altuve out with a strained hamstring. Aledmys Diaz (.279/.313/.512) and Jake Marisnick (.284/.344/.545) have performed decently in their absence.
• It seems that Tyler White (.643 OPS) was sitting more with Josh Reddick (.845 OPS) being the DH until Springer got hurt. When Springer returns, White will likely head back to the bench.

Athletics

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In Tout Wars this year, have been graced with four suspect closers but they’ve caused me to ponder how to handle the “riches”. The issue is that they are not stable and I’d not be surprised if all four were out of a job next month. I polled my Twitter followers to see which one they had the most faith in.

I have the following four closers in @ToutWars. Who do you think will have the most Saves at your season's end?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) April 24, 2019

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