I had some doubts about this list’s usefulness a couple of weeks back and yesterday I tried to find ways to improve it. I came to the conclusion that players in the 10% to 25% dropped range were the most interesting. This works out to players dropped in four to nine leagues. Before, I was just looking at those in 10 or more leagues. I was way off target.

After looking over the players, I’m going to squeeze the range a little more from those dropped in six to nine leagues which works out to 34 players this week. I’d like to focus on 20 or so players each week but know that there was a post-deadline frenzy pushing the total up.
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First, sorry about no drop list article last week… more on that later. Second, today’s experiment stems from HappyFunBall’s comment from a couple of weeks ago.

I was well into the analysis last week and found I was not answering the right question and had the wrong data. The drop comparisons need to be a little forward-looking, not backward. The data collected from the sites was after the NFBC FAAB ran. The other sites I used allow daily or quick-draw pickups, so some of the news from the Monday was getting baked in. I wanted the rates to be taken from similar timeframes.

My original question focused on which players I should analyze so owners can gain an edge. The edge could be knowing who to drop because they are no longer fantasy-viable. Also, the hope is to find some players whose owners gave up too early on. The hope is that one of the other platforms can provide more insight than the NFBC Main Event.

Several issues exist with this study. First, it’s just one week and a busy week at that with the trade deadline. The increased activity may help to offset the lack of moves since it’s later in the season. I’m not 100% sure but I may run the same analysis again but I need to do it before the head-to-head playoff start and main teams get abandoned.

Finally, the table is a mess. A big one. What Happy Fun Ball and I hoped for didn’t materialize but a few interesting observations can be made.

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Angels

• The lineup is fairly consistent.
• One of Albert Pujols, Luis Rengifo, and Matt Thaiss must sit every game.

Astros

• The lineup has been set since Carlos Correa returned from the IL.
• There is a possibility that Josh Reddick (vs RHP) and Jake Marisnick (vs LHP) are in a platoon.

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Life has come at me hard the last couple of days and I’m actually happy to spend some time writing about baseball as a distraction. The problem is that I need to prioritize my efforts. I’ve decided to just post the projected values (no analysis) and instead focus on my efforts on my weekly AL Lineups article. If I have the time and effort later today, I may come back and add some more details.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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With so many trades going down, I’m just going to go through a few and what it means to their rest of season fantasy value

Trade 1

• Astros get Zack Greinke
• Diamondbacks get Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer, and Joshua Rojas

Zack Greinke: The Astros grabbing Greinke made all kinds of waves in the real baseball world but in the fantasy game, Greinke gets a small value boost. The deal is that he’s already a start-every-game player and he locks himself even more as one. His owners don’t have to do anything but pat themselves on the back for drafting him in the spring.

Josh Rojas: Of the players coming to the Diamondbacks, Rojas is the only one with any 2019 fantasy impact and it’s small. Alex Chamberlain has a soft spot for Rojas since he’s made the Peripheral Prospects twice. While not touted at all, he’s a nice power (15 MILB HR), speed (28 SB) threat with a good batting eye (12% BB%, 14% K%). He’ll need to be called up first but if he does, owners should take notice, and monitor his playing time.

Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer: No 2019 value.

Trade 2

• Phillies get Corey Dickerson
• Pirates get a PTBNL and cash

Corey Dickerson: This trade would normally be made at the second trade deadline. The Phillies would add some outfield depth as they near the playoffs. So now, they are adding Dickerson (.931 OPS) to take Adam Haseley’s (.811 OPS) spot in left field until Jay Bruce (.825 OPS) returns from the IL.

The problem is that these three (and Bryce Harper) all bat left-handed. No obvious platoons exist. It might take a week or two to see if the trade creates anything actionable. Owners need to be watching this lineup closely to see how the playing time gets allocated.

Trade 3

• Brewers get Ray Black and Drew Pomeranz
• Giants get Mauricio Dubon

Ray Black: The 29-year-old Black just throws smoke with his fastball averaging 99 mph this year. The problem with his fastball is that he doesn’t exactly know where it’s going (in the minors, his BB/9 top 9.0 several times) and when hitters do square it up, it flies for homers. In two partial major league seasons, the fastball has a 15% SwStr% and 22% GB%. Besides the fastball, he also features a slider with an 18% SwStr% and 57 GB%.

Black has had some issues staying healthy which have limited his major league chances. He’s not going to immediately slot into the closer’s role but I’d not be surprised if he does at some this season with Josh Hader going back to the fireman’s role.

Drew Pomeranz: The Giants were forced to remove Pomeranz from the rotation even though he was dominating hitters with a 10.7 K/9. The strikeouts were his only positive trait with a 4.3 BB/9 and 2.0 HR/9 helping lead to a 5.86 ERA. Most owners are just going to dismiss him but I’m intrigued to see if the Brewers tap into his potential.

One obvious change is to get rid of a pitch or two. His pathetic sinker is the obvious drop. While his change has been better this season (10% SwStr%), it has been historically bad (6% SwStr%). He could go four-seam (11% SwStr%), curve (10% SwStr%), and cutter (12% SwStr%) and be a serviceable streaming option. The Brewers added Wade Miley at the deadline last year, got him refocused, and now he’s one of the biggest surprised of 2019

Mauricio Dubon: Shelly Verougstraete covered Dubon in detail in a separate article. All I will say is don’t sleep on him one bit. I’ve been hoping he could get some major league playing time since he was with Boston. A five-tool player which will be mixed-league worthy if he could just get on the field.

Trade 4

• Astros get Aaron Sanchez, Joe Biagini, Cal Stevenson
• Blue Jays get Derek Fisher

Aaron Sanchez: Like Pomeranz, Sanchez has struggled to keep a reasonable ERA (6.07) with all the walks (4.7 BB/9) and homers (1.2 HR/9). By just logging onto his player page, I can see the first adjustment the Astros will implement, drop his s(t)inker. It’s only getting a useless 47% GB% and 5% SwStr%.

On the other hand, his four-seamer has an 8% SwStr% and a flyball inducing 35% GB%. After the Astros got rid of Gerrit Cole’s sinker, Sanchez’s sinker will some be history. Besides the sinker, his good curveball (15% SwStr%) and OK change (10% SwStr%) provide a swing-and-miss alternative to finish off batters.

It seems like Jose Urquidy is the odd man out of the Astros rotation with the additions Zack Greinke and Sanchez. If Sanchez can’t adjust and continues to struggle, don’t be surprised if Urquidy gets moved back into the rotation.

Derek Fisher: I don’t understand this pickup at all for the Jays. In 312 major plate appearances, he’s hit 10 HR, .201/.282/.367, 35% K% with 9 steals. While the being a power-speed threat is nice, he’s not much of a hitting threat. A sub-.300 OBP isn’t going to cut it in the majors. He’s Quad-A bat who may get on a hot streak once or twice during his career and become fantasy relevant.

Joe Biagini: A nice bullpen arm but has some fantasy value before the trades as the backup to Ken Giles. Now he has no value.

Cal Stevenson: Again, Shelly Verougstraete wrote him up.

The Rays and Brewers have swapped players with the Rays getting first baseman Jesus Aguilar and the Brewers adding reliever Jake Faria. Here’s my take on who gains the most value from now to end-of-season in redraft leagues.

Travis Shaw/Eric Thames: Not sure what is going on here. The Brewers are left with two left-handed bats for the first base job. I think both become two-thirds time plays with both splitting time at first and Thames playing in the outfield especially with Ryan Braun needing rest Lorenzo Cain getting banged up. Shaw could play around the infield once a week as he did before his demotion.

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What a great trade (and fight) last night. This trade has so many moving parts that I’m going to focus on those players seeing their in-season fantasy value changing enough for owners to act. I’m not going to touch keeper/dynasty values as league rules will determine much of the player’s valuation. I’ll try to get past the main characters and find those players who need to be picked up or dropped.

While I’m supposed to provide instant analysis on this blockbuster trade, the true fantasy value gainers and decliners aren’t going to be 100% known for a few days. Owners will keep sticking Trevor Bauer and Yasiel Puig in their lineup. While the park factors and league context will change their value a bit, it’s non-actionable. They aren’t going to be dropped or added so the trade doesn’t affect their value.

The exact gain rankings aren’t known yet as who replaces Puig and who Bauer pushes out of the Reds rotation. Owners in weekly FAAB leagues will have time to make a decision and see who the MLB teams use for replacements. In the wild, wild west of quick-click leagues, hopefully, I can provide the correct replacements, but I’m guessing what the Reds and Padres will do which isn’t the easiest. With the disclaimers out of the way, it’s time to get to the winner and losers.

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There is a ton of value changes this week with some players getting hurt (Braves), called up (Will Smith), or playing full-time (Luis Arraez). Just spend a few minutes looking for some adds. Probably more important, look for some players who should be dropped or benched. It’s not a week to half-ass your FAAB.

The projection guidelines:

• The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
• The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
• The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
• Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

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