Week 19 FAAB Projections

There is a ton of value changes this week with some players getting hurt (Braves), called up (Will Smith), or playing full-time (Luis Arraez). Just spend a few minutes looking for some adds. Probably more important, look for some players who should be dropped or benched. It’s not a week to half-ass your FAAB.

The projection guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

Week 19 Projected Hitter FAAB
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Josh VanMeter SS | CIN 1% 5% 4% $12
Mike Tauchman CF | NYY 1% 5% 4% $12
Austin Romine C | NYY 1% 4% 3% $11
Yairo Munoz SS | STL 1% 4% 3% $11
Adam Duvall LF | ATL 2% 4% 2% $11
Tommy Edman SS | STL 4% 6% 2% $11
Anthony Santander RF | BAL 6% 28% 22% $52
Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF 6% 13% 7% $16
Mark Canha CF | OAK 7% 11% 4% $13
Matt Wieters C | STL 7% 9% 2% $12
Will Smith C | LAD 9% 43% 34% $110
Brandon Crawford SS | SF 10% 12% 2% $12
Isan Diaz 2B | MIA 10% 12% 2% $12
Alex Dickerson LF | SF 12% 17% 5% $15
Luis Arraez 2B | MIN 12% 14% 2% $13
Manuel Margot CF | SD 16% 25% 9% $23
Brian McCann C | ATL 19% 24% 5% $19
Gavin Lux SS | LAD 19% 23% 4% $17
Albert Pujols 1B | LAA 20% 22% 2% $16
Nick Ahmed SS | ARI 23% 25% 2% $18
Gio Urshela 3B | NYY 24% 26% 2% $18
Eric Sogard SS | TOR 28% 32% 4% $23
Carson Kelly C | ARI 32% 34% 2% $24
Enrique Hernandez CF | LAD 32% 34% 2% $24
Luis Robert CF | CHW 33% 35% 2% $24
Travis d’Arnaud C | TB 34% 63% 29% $113
Niko Goodrum 2B | DET 34% 37% 3% $26
Justin Smoak 1B | TOR 44% 46% 2% $35
Renato Nunez 3B | BAL 45% 59% 14% $63
Ryan McMahon 1B | COL 45% 51% 6% $42
Jorge Alfaro C | MIA 45% 47% 2% $36
Rougned Odor 2B | TEX 47% 54% 7% $47
  • Will Smith: The Dodgers demoted Austin Barnes to the minors and promoted the top-100 prospect Will Smith. The 34% ownership jump is extremely high and usually garners a $100+ price. I wouldn’t pay it for the hype. I’d probably max out in the $30 range
  • Travis d’Araund: Another catcher with a $100 price tag. In most deeper leagues, he’s been owned for weeks. For those who waited, they are going to have to pay full price.
  • Carson Kelly: Instead of playing up for the above two catchers, pick up Kelly for a quarter of the price. He’s a hitting a respectable .264/.352/.527 with 12 homers.
  • Anthony Santander: Last week in the NFBC, he was added in 21 leagues for an average cost of $6. It’ll be more this week. He’s finally hitting the ball hard and in the air and it shows in his .304/.344/.509 triple slash.
  • Manual Margot: He’s tied for 15th in the league with 15 stolen bases. For those owners needing stolen bases, he’s a must-add. Another stolen base threat to keep an eye on is Tim Locastro. There are a ton of rumors floating around the Diamondbacks trading off parts. If Jarrod Dyson and David Peralta get traded, Locastro could be let loose to steal a ton.
  • Renato Nunez: What the hell took so long. He’s tied for 16th in the league with 25 home runs.
  • Luis Arraez: Who doesn’t need a full-time player who’s qualified at several positions and hitting .374/.450/.481?
  • Mark Canha: Seventeen homers in under 300 PA. And his .383 OBP makes him a must-add in OBP leagues.
  • Josh VanMeter: A dual-threat player hitting .313/.403/.552 who has started and hit fifth for three straight games.
  • Tommy Edman: He has been the Cardinals leadoff hitter for a month with four homers and stolen bases. He’s a must-add for some team in all 15-teamers.
  • Ryan O’Hearn (bonus): After struggling earlier in the majors, he was demoted, but hit well enough to make the Voit/Muncy all-stars.

Week 19 Projected Pitcher FAAB
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Pedro Payano SP | TEX 0% 3% 3% $8
Tarik Skubal SP | DET 1% 3% 2% $8
Francis Martes RP | HOU 1% 2% 1% $11
Asher Wojciechowski RP | BAL 2% 23% 21% $25
Joe Biagini RP | TOR 2% 3% 1% $11
Ethan Hankins SP | CLE 2% 3% 1% $8
Nick Anderson RP | MIA 3% 8% 5% $13
Drew Smyly SP | PHI 3% 8% 5% $9
Chris Martin RP | TEX 4% 8% 4% $12
Johnny Cueto SP | SF 5% 6% 1% $8
Jaime Barria SP | LAA 6% 14% 8% $11
Giovanny Gallegos RP | STL 6% 9% 3% $11
Rogelio Armenteros SP | HOU 6% 8% 2% $8
Sam Dyson RP | SF 8% 10% 2% $11
Cal Quantrill SP | SD 9% 15% 6% $10
Andres Munoz RP | SD 13% 15% 2% $9
Jose Urquidy RP | HOU 14% 40% 26% $36
Vince Velasquez SP | PHI 14% 29% 15% $18
Freddy Peralta SP | MIL 17% 20% 3% $13
Andrew Miller RP | STL 18% 22% 4% $14
Sean Manaea SP | OAK 18% 20% 2% $9
Tyler Beede SP | SF 20% 35% 15% $19
Jason Vargas SP | NYM 23% 28% 5% $11
Reynaldo Lopez SP | CHW 25% 58% 33% $56
Alex Wood SP | CIN 29% 44% 15% $21
Danny Duffy SP | KC 32% 36% 4% $12
Jose Leclerc RP | TEX 34% 41% 7% $22
Jake Junis SP | KC 34% 40% 6% $14
Kevin Gausman SP | ATL 35% 48% 13% $20
Anthony DeSclafani SP | CIN 35% 38% 3% $12
Ryan Yarbrough RP | TB 40% 59% 19% $30
Brandon Workman RP | BOS 40% 51% 11% $31
Mike Leake SP | SEA 43% 53% 10% $19
Steven Matz SP | NYM 44% 46% 2% $14
Julio Urias RP | LAD 46% 48% 2% $15
Zach Plesac SP | CLE 47% 54% 7% $18
Tanner Roark SP | CIN 48% 53% 5% $17
Brad Keller RP | KC 50% 66% 16% $29
Jeff Samardzija SP | SF 50% 52% 2% $16
  • Asher Wojciechowski and Jose Urquidy: Both are starters with a K/9 over 10.8, a BB/9 under 2.50, and SIERA’s under 3.75. With the lack of decent starting pitching, both are most owns.
  • Reynaldo Lopez: He been lights out in three starts since the All-Star game (1.71 ERA, 10.71 K/9, 1.71 BB/9).
  • Tyler Beede: Since throwing his strike-zone filling slider over 10% of the time (four games), he has a 7.6 K/9, 0.7 BB/9, and 2.63 ERA.
  • Vince Velasquez: A doubling in ownership? Over shutting down one of the league’s worst offenses? Hard pass for now. I’m going to need to see more than one good start.
  • Alex Wood: Check-in on his Sunday start for velocity and control.
  • Elieser Hernandez (bonus): He has joined the Marlins rotation after posting a 4.05 ERA, 10.8 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9.

Reliever Rankings (Saves focused)

  1. Brandon Workman
  2. Nick Andrson
  3. Chris Martin
  4. Jose LeClerc
  5. Sam Dyson
  6. Freddy Peralta
  7. Andres Munoz
  8. Joe Biagini
  9. Andrew Miller
  10. Giovanny Gallegos

And here are last week’s results and the values from last year. Looks like closers dominated the bidding last year.

2019 Week 18 FAAB Results
Add Avg Bid Leagues (38)
Brandon Workman $37 9
Kevin Gausman $21 24
Jose Urquidy $17 31
Tyler Beede $15 23
Asher Wojciechowski $14 22
Stephen Piscotty $14 6
Mike Yastrzemski $13 15
Teoscar Hernandez $13 18
Homer Bailey $12 11
Chris Martin $12 10
Alex Young $11 8
Daniel Hudson $10 5
Gio Gonzalez $10 6
Raimel Tapia $9 5
Danny Salazar $9 7
Rogelio Armenteros $9 27
Mark Canha $8 8
Bubba Starling $8 14
JaCoby Jones $8 8
Tim Locastro $7 7
Matt Adams $7 12
Jalen Beeks $7 13
Ryan Borucki $7 11
Tommy Edman $6 24
Tyler Naquin $6 20
Reynaldo Lopez $6 5
Brandon Crawford $6 8
Jurickson Profar $6 6
Ender Inciarte $6 7
Alex Wood $6 7
Cal Quantrill $6 15
Anthony Santander $6 21
Dylan Bundy $6 12
Jeimer Candelario $6 5
Drew Smyly $6 26
Alec Mills $6 11
Jose Peraza $5 6
Andres Munoz $4 17
Tommy Milone $4 5
Shaun Anderson $4 5
Gio Urshela $4 5
Adam Haseley $4 6
Sean Manaea $4 5
Travis Shaw $4 8
Jordan Lyles $3 11
Mike Leake $3 5
Vince Velasquez $3 5
Michael Lorenzen $3 5
J.D. Davis $3 10
Jason Vargas $3 9
Nick Anderson $3 6
Ivan Nova $3 5
Dario Agrazal $3 5
Cheslor Cuthbert $3 9
Pablo Lopez $2 5
Welington Castillo $2 16
Tom Murphy $2 9
John Hicks $2 9
Austin Barnes $1 7
Sam Dyson $1 8

 

2018 Week 19 FAAB Results
Add Avg Bid Leagues (34)
Will Smith $60 5
Clay Buchholz $34 5
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. $28 24
Anthony Swarzak $25 29
Pedro Strop $22 10
Mychal Givens $21 23
Austin Meadows $19 7
Jeff McNeil $18 8
Derek Holland $18 15
Daniel Palka $16 13
Eduardo Rodriguez $15 10
Francisco Arcia $14 12
Jace Fry $13 24
Brandon Drury $12 14
Daniel Poncedeleon $12 15
Francisco Cervelli $11 8
Isiah Kiner-Falefa $11 27
Yairo Munoz $10 6
Nick Ahmed $10 5
Mitch Garver $10 16
Homer Bailey $10 7
Nicky Delmonico $9 10
Trevor Richards $9 14
Brian Goodwin $9 7
Dexter Fowler $9 5
Matthew Boyd $9 6
Austin Romine $8 9
Wade Miley $8 6
Brett Phillips $8 12
Jose Leclerc $7 14
Rosell Herrera $7 11
David Fletcher $7 17
Logan Morrison $7 5
Chris Davis $6 9
Tom Murphy $6 7
Lucas Duda $6 5
Trevor Williams $6 7
Drew Steckenrider $6 12
Rajai Davis $5 8
Melky Cabrera $5 6
Edwin Jackson $5 9
Blake Swihart $5 5
James Shields $4 5
Jake Diekman $4 6
Sam Gaviglio $4 6
Yonny Chirinos $4 8
Victor Robles $4 7
Joey Wendle $4 6
Neil Walker $4 9
Wei-Yin Chen $4 10
Nick Tropeano $3 10
Omar Narvaez $3 6
Caleb Joseph $3 6
Yefry Ramirez $3 5
Aledmys Diaz $2 5
Ryan Borucki $2 5
Trevor Hildenberger $2 5

We hoped you liked reading Week 19 FAAB Projections by Jeff Zimmerman!

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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icefire1
Member
icefire1

I picked up Sogard this morning to fill a couple of holes next week. Toronto has a great schedule next week. Now, he is a late scratch today. Ugh! I wonder who he is getting traded to.

icefire1
Member
icefire1

Tampa Bay. Ughhh