After doing an overview of the juiced ball and a focus on pitchers, I started down a path to find out which hitters would be most affected by the juiced ball. I didn’t know it was going to be overrun with thorn bushes and misleading signs. The process was nearly impossible for the simple fact that the league’s hitting profile changed. Besides even considering the ball, batters were hitting more flyball, hitting the ball harder, and pulling it over short corner fences. I tried to find one answer but ended finding another.

One key to this analysis is that I wanted to keep it simple. I didn’t want to pump the data into some neural network for a more “correct” answer where I’d not sure of the factors in play and how each one was weighted. I wanted some clarity.

One set of factors I initially used was the StatCast information but I didn’t use it for the final analysis because it didn’t add any accuracy. Groundball rate is almost a perfect proxy for Launch Angle. Home run per batted ball is basically a Barrel. Also, StatCast data has only been available since 2015 when the juiced ball started. There is no baseline data for the deadened ball period.
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… but not by much for teams I just owned …

My 2019 fantasy season did not live up to my standards with most of the struggles being self-inflicted. Here are some overarching themes I spotted with each league plus some additional points at the end.

Horrible FAAB management

I ran out of money in almost every league and spent too much FAAB on worthless assets. Looking back over the leagues, the root cause was chasing week-only plays. From my work writing “The Process”, I found out how valuable it is to grind out each week. Additionally, I ran the weekly FAAB projections here so I knew around what it would take to get each. Initially, I got the players and but dropped them a week or two later for better options with little to show for the FAAB spent

I need to set a FAAB limit for chasing week-only plays and just accept it’s fine to miss out on a few players. A week’s advantage is worth the same in week 1 or the final week. The rest of my FAAB can be used for chasing long term improvements. Some players may straddle the long-term and weekly play so the FAAB may come from both the weekly and long term pools. I need to have a plan and stick to it.
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I’ve screwed up. A lot. A few years back, I created a pitching metric called pERA which took each individual pitch’s results (swinging-strike and groundball rate) and combined them into one metric. The problem was that I wrote the article in 2016 and used a formula I created back in 2015 with 2002-2015 data. The juiced ball arrived and I never adjusted the formula for the change. Oopsy.

I felt a little sick when it finally dawned on me that the formula needed updating and ma initial findings are available in this Twitter thread.

I've invested too much time this morning looking into GB%, ERA, and ERA estimators. Two conclusions:

1. Happy Fun Ball has everything messed up. Don't assume any previous assumptions are true.
2. Groundball pitchers are ruling the day.

1/6

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 16, 2019

It finally dawned on me that the formula I was using to evaluate pitchers was off. With strikeouts and walks being equal, groundball pitchers outperform flyball pitchers. With a deadened ball, a high flyball rate meant most flyballs would go for easy outs. Not any more. Now those flyballs go for home runs. It’s time for a little math to show the change.
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While the 2019 season is still semi-fresh in everyone’s mind, I have one simple request. Which hitters played through an injury instead of going on the Injured List this past season?

I’ve collected the players for the past couple of seasons (2017 and 2018). It’s time to compile the 2019 list even though the effects on a projection may be limited. Here are the players I have so far.

Name: Injury (link)

• Nolan Arenado: Toe injury (link)
• Javier Báez: Bruised heal limited his production, (link)
• Cody Bellinger: Bum shoulder (link)
• David Bote: Broken toe (link)
• Khris Bryant: Knee issues (link)
• Lorenzo Cain: Not batting leadoff until wrist healthy (link)
• Matt Chapman: Ankle/knee issues (link)
• C.J. Cron: Thumb (link)
• Nelson Cruz: Wrist? (link)
• Khris Davis: Hip bothered him (link)
• Daniel Descalso: Ankle (link)
• Freddie Freeman: Bone spur in elbow (link)
• Keston Hiura: Hamstring (link)
• Rhys Hoskins: Hand (link)
• Aaron Judge: Oblique (link)
• Max Kepler: Knee (link)
• Ramón Laureano: Shin (link)
• Yadier Molina: Finger (link)
• Mike Moustakas: Fractured finger (link)
• Daniel Murphy: Finger (link)
• Brandon Nimmo: Neck (link)
• Marcell Ozuna: Shoulder not 100% (link)
• Tommy Pham: Hand (link)
• Roberto Pérez: Ankle (link)
• Gregory Polanco: Shoulder (link)
• Hunter Renfroe: Ankle and elbow (link)
• Anthony Rizzo: Sprained ankle (link)
• Justin Smoak: Quad (link)
• Domingo Santana: Inflamed elbow (link)
• Mike Trout: Foot (link)
• Trea Turner: Finger (link)
• Alex Verdugo: Back issues (link)
• Luke Voit: Hernia (link)

Late adds

Marwin Gonzalez (link)

If anyone knows of anyone I missed, please say so in the comments with a link to the source. I not looking for guess but the player or his team saying he’s hurt. Thanks for the help.

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To begin my 2020 preseason, the elephant needs to be addressed, “What to do about projecting with MLB’s juiced baseball (i.e. Happy Fun Ball).

Is Freddy Galvis going to continue to jack 20+ home runs or will he maxing out at dozen or so? Every projection can’t be a Choose Your Own Adventure story. If the ball is still juiced, he’ll do X, if not juiced, he’ll do Y. In my analysis, I’ll pick a lane.

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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

None

Multiple Category Contribution

Joe Musgrove (46%) at CHC: Musgrove was the closest to making the Hell Yea group but I’m not sold on the Win and afraid the Cubs will hit him around. He’s the best option, but just not a slam dunk.

Aaron Civale (46%) at CWS: He’s good but not 1.82 ERA good. Somehow he’s maintained a 0.3 HR/9 with a mediocre 40% GB%. With regression coming now or next season in the ERA department, he doesn’t walk anyone (2.2 BB/9) and should get a Win against the White Sox.

Chase Anderson (16%) at CIN: Chase the Win and get a few strikeouts (8.2 K/9) along the way without completely destroying a team’s ERA (4.30) and WHIP (1.26).

Devin Smeltzer (3%) at DET: He’s in the Civale camp with a decent chance for a Win and his 2.5 BB/9 helps keep his WHIP (1.18) low.
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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Homer Bailey (30%) at LAA: He meets all the requirements for a good streamer, especially since joining the A’s, with an 8.6 K/9, just a 2.0 BB/9, six Wins, and a 4.21 ERA.

Partial Category Contribution

Rich Hill (39%)/Ross Stripling (39%) at SD: If Stripling starts, I love him in the follower role here. The only red flag may be a limited number of innings.

Dylan Bundy (19%) at TOR: Strikeouts (9.1 K/9) and a possible Win against the Jays. The strikeouts may not be as high since he’s reinventing himself as the season goes on. He’s starting to mix in a sinker and throw his four-seamer less. His strikeouts have gone from 9.5 K/9 in the first half to 8.5 K/9. Over the same time, his HR/9 has dropped from 2.0 to 1.1. The problem is the Orioles defense which has let too many groundballs through and his BABIP has increased from .276 to .339.

Anthony Kay (3%) vs BAL: I guess I’m the most interested in the Baltimore-Toronto game. Kay’s been striking out batters this season (8.4 K/9). He’s keeping the ball on the ground so far in the majors (52%) and has limited the homers. While his ERA is near 6.00, his ERA estimators are around 4.00. He’s a fine option.
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Angels

• While it wasn’t obvious since the Angels hadn’t face a lefty starter in eight games, the team has platoon lineups.
• Several injuries (Trout, Ohtani, Rengifo) has moved some bench players to the starting lineup.

Astros

• The same steady lineup with Carlos Correa starting to work himself back at shortstop.
• Kyle Tucker seems to be the fourth outfielder giving guys a day off. He has started four of the last five games.
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