I’m back for more diving into how the Vegas betting odds on MLB games can help fantasy owners find any new information. All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through articles find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.

Fantasy usable information.

• Michael Wacha could be around a 4.00 ERA starter since coming off the IL.
• Ryan Yarbrough’s projection could closer to 3.50 or lower going forward.
• Yordan Alvarez’s projection going forward seems on the low side.
• Zack Wheeler second half strikeouts are headed down.
• Vegas seems to be buying into Dakota Hudson’s breakout.

Game 1 (Monday): Brewers at Marlins
Favorite: Brewers
Vegas Breakeven % (Brewers): 68.5%
FanGraphs Win%: 58.4%

There are several items which could be making the Marlins look worse. Rober Duggar’s projected ERA was near 5.00 but his in-season FIP and xFIP were closer to 6.00. Additionally, the Marlins bullpen ERA is a half run higher than the Brewers.
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Angels

• Brian Goodwin’s hot second half (.267/.323/.568) has bumped him up to the leadoff spot with Brian Fletcher batting second.

Astros

• Aledmys Díaz has started five straight games at first base as Yuli Gurriel deals with a hamstring injury.
• Abraham Toro has started nine of the last 11 at third base while hitting .250/.344/.464 in the majors.
• Kyle Tucker has only started in three of the last seven games and sat in three straight.
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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yes

Dinelson Lamet vs CHC (24%): While he’s facing the Darvish-led Cubs, the matchup doesn’t scare me one bit. Lamet has a 11.7 K/9 and an under 4.00 with ERA estimators to match. Maybe the next two pitchers listed here might have a better chance for a win but Lamet has the best overall package.

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Gambling and baseball go way back. Everyone, casinos and betters, look to gain an edge with the hope of free money. Today, I’m starting a series diving into the lines with the hope of finding which information, fantasy or otherwise, can be extracted from the sharks and books using the FanGraphs win rate as a baseline.

To start the study, I used the game projections available here at FanGraphs and the historic Vegas line. While the FanGraphs projections were right more times than wrong, there was a systematic error I quickly found. The home-field advantage was set to 8%. The home field teams were expected to win 54% of the time and lose 46% (math!) for the 8% spread. I looked back at the league-wide home-field advantage over the past dozen season and found a smaller margin.
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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Tanner Roark (31%) at HOU: I don’t love the game being at Houston but he just goes against Wade Miley. He strikes out batters. Doesn’t walk many. He’s got a good team behind him. Sure why not.

Mitch Keller (7%) at SF: I know he has an 8.18 ERA, but his ERA estimators are between 3.75 to 4.00. A .469 BABIP is dragging him down but it’s tough to pass on the 12.0 K/9.

Partial Category Contribution

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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Adrian Houser vs CHC (21%): A strikeout rate over 9 K/9. A walk rate near 3.0. A groundball rate at 54%. A 3.45 ERA. ERA estimators at or under 4.00. What else is fantasy owner hoping for?

Anthony DeSclafani vs ARI (28%): I wish the start was on the road since he’s a little more home run prone at home (1.8 HR/9 vs 1.6 HR/9). Considering the suspect talents under 50% owned, he’s a fine option.
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Angels

• Against the last three lefty starters, Shohei Ohtani has sat. His splits are almost non-existent (.843 OPS vs RHP, .817 OPS vs LHP), so I’m not sure why. Also, Justin Upton was the DH in these three games instead of Albert Pujols who has started 12 straight games, all at first base.
• In five of the last six games, Brian Goodwin hit in the top third of the lineup. After struggling in May and June (sub-.650 OPS), he’s hitting .303/.361/.639 in the season’s second half.

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We are covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. Here is Thursday’s slate. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate). The pitchers are in order of how I’d rank them.

Hell Yea

Chris Bassitt vs LAA (45%): While Bassitt has had some luck (.257 BABIP), he’s not been horrible in any one category (3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 9 Wins). He’s on a good team facing a below-average one. He’s what owners should like for in a streamer.

Logan Webb at STL (10%): I’m not a fan of his supporting cast, but Webb might be must-start for the rest of the season. His 9.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 are supported by his minor league stats. His 56% GB% is near elite and it’s impossible for ground balls to fly out as a homer. I know it’s only been three starts for him but with the lack of starting pitching, he needs to be owned in every league.
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