Mining the News: Ohtani, Freeman, Votto, & More

The following tidbits are the most fantasy-relevant news I’ve found so far this offseason.

• Lots of information in this article to consider about Shohei Ohtani. One item that finally clicked with me was that his late-season injury was a knee issue.

Ohtani, though, proved he’s still a strong hitter, batting .286/.343/.505 with 18 homers and 62 RBIs in 106 games, but he saw his season end on Sept. 11 after undergoing surgery to address a bipartite patella in his left knee. The injury began to flare up in Spring Training, but Ohtani played through it, as it mostly only affected him as he ramped up his throwing program off the mound.

Tommy John recoveries need to get their new tendon from somewhere and it’s usually the knee. I wonder if the knee wasn’t healed from the elbow operation.

Also, his 2019 value seems limited by just pitching once a week and batting in just half the games.

Ohtani remains on track to return to two-way status in 2020, as he’s expected to pitch once a week and serve as the DH roughly three to four times a week. But he has to get his rehab done with both his knee and elbow this offseason, as he’s yet to fully complete his throwing program.

He is expected to be cleared to finish his throwing program in December and the hope is that he’ll have enough time to be ready for the start of the season. Ohtani is likely to be behind the other pitchers early in Spring Training, but it’s still too early to know the full plan heading into next year.

He’ll be limited to about 25 starts and in weekly lineup leagues, he’s just a half-time bat. Owners in bi-weekly lineup moves (e.g. NFBC leagues) can hope he hits during one of the two weekly blocks and not split time.

• Aaron Hicks is putting off recommended Tommy John surgery.

Hicks injured his throwing elbow in an Aug. 3 game against the Red Sox, and after an initial consultation with team physician Dr. Christopher Ahmad produced a diagnosis of a right flexor strain, the 30-year-old switch-hitter was sent to Los Angeles in early September to be seen by Dodgers team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache.

ElAttrache’s opinion, Hicks confirmed after Game 6, was that he should undergo Tommy John surgery. Instead, Hicks returned to his Arizona home and rested for a brief period before resuming throwing, sending a video to the Yanks’ training staff that displayed enough promise to green-light his return to the club’s complex in Tampa, Fla.

I’m out on Hicks with this news unless he’s a late-round or reserve pick. I don’t want to count on him for production or waste resources on someone who needs elbow surgery.

• Matthew Boyd started throwing his change more in September.

Considering Boyd’s work ethic and career trajectory, however, the Tigers believe he can improve even more and throw the game a changeup — literally. The change was a big pitch for him early in his career, and it resurfaced in September as catcher Grayson Greiner urged him to throw hitters off his fastball-slider combo.

“That’s a massive pitch for him,” Gardenhire said. “It’s a great strikeout pitch for him.”

The usage only jumped to 10% but it would be nice if he threw it more. The pitch has an above league average 15% SwStr% but a killer 24% GB% considering the Happy Fun Ball. If the ball deadens some, I’ll have no problem rostering him because of this adjustment.

• Nelson Cruz should expect some regression after his near historic age-38 season.

Still plenty of really good seasons, but just 13 of 23 remained at least 25 percent above average and five dipped all the way to below average. As a group, those 23 players’ production declined by an average of 17 points of OPS+ the following season, collectively dropping from 50 percent above average to 33 percent above average. Worse, due to some combination of ineffectiveness and injuries, they also logged an average of 93 fewer plate appearances apiece. In all, 18 of the 23 were clearly less valuable at age 39 than at age 38.

I expect less of a drop from him. A majority of the other hitters listed needed to still play in the field wearing down their bodies. Cruz just has to walk to the batter’s box four to five times a game. I’ll believe the decline when I see it.

• Freddie Freeman had elbow surgery to remove bone spurs which bothered him late in the season.

The Braves announced Dr. David Altchek performed the procedure in New York on Wednesday. Altcheck cleaned Freeman’s entire right elbow joint during the procedure. He removed three fragmented loose bodies and cleaned multiple bone spur formations that had developed.

The first baseman is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training.

Freeman repeatedly said his elbow did not bother him during the National League Division Series. But as he went 4-for-20 with a double and a homer during the best-of-five series against the Cardinals, he extended the concerns that developed when his power and production steeply declined in September.

Freeman’s power dropped from a .275 ISO in the first half to .224 in the second half to just a .125 over the last month. I’m glad the 30-year-old got the operation and his owners should have no reservations rostering him next season.

• Joey Votto kept adjusting over last season and thinks he’s now right.

Shortly after the All-Star break, Votto ditched a hitting approach that had benefited him in the recent past, especially during his near MVP year of 2017. Among the tweaks: He stopped choking up on the bat and he returned to a taller stance in the batter’s box — both things he had done earlier in his career. Over a 26-game stretch from July 18 until a lower back strain sent him to the injured list on Aug. 15 for nearly two weeks, he had four homers, six doubles and an .823 OPS. Over his final 29 games after returning, he hit three more homers and seven doubles with a .793 OPS. It gave him some level of optimism to take away from a bleak year.

The dates seem to be cut up and the best Votto hit was a .823 OPS. I’m not investing in a 36-year-old first baseman with chronic back issues and no power.

• Nico Hoerner is an option in center field and to leadoff next year. If the helium stays low on him, he could be a nice sleeper.

• Austin Hays is expected to be the Orioles starting center fielder.

Hays reemerged at the MLB level in September, hitting .309/.373/.574 with four home runs in 75 plate appearances down the stretch. He’ll head into Spring Training as one of the favorites (if not the favorite) to open the 2020 season in center field.

Hays is a well-rounded player bringing speed, power, and average to the table. And he’ll play every day. Sign me up.

• Yoshitomo Tsutsugo is being posted by his Japanese club, Yokohama DeNA BayStars.

Tsutsugo has long been on the MLB radar. He has been among the most effective hitters in Japanese baseball since fully establishing himself at the nation’s highest level in 2014. Since that time, Tsutsugo has devoured NPB pitching. In over four thousand career plate appearances, he’s a .284/.382/.525 hitter with 205 long balls.

This past season wasn’t Tsutsugo’s most dominant, as he provided the BayStars with 557 plate appearances of .272/.388/.511 hitting and launched 29 long balls. That’s a far sight shy of his personal-best 2016 output (.322/.430/.680, 44 home runs) but still plenty productive. Indeed, he was the sixth-best hitter in the NPB by measure of OPS.

From all reports, his bat is MLB quality but he’s likely to be a defensive liability limiting him to left field or DH. Even though he’s limited, fantasy owners in early drafts should take a chance on him while his price is still cheap.

• Delino DeShields struggled with some of the new information presented to him.

Like some of the other Rangers hitters, DeShields had a difficult transition with some of the new bio-mechanic and analytical information presented to them this season.

“There were things they were telling me to do that didn’t make sense and I didn’t understand,” DeShields said. “But the more the season goes along … I understood why. You can’t expect yourself to know it right away. It’s an adjustment period. Next year, it’s going to take off.”

With stolen bases accumulators tough to find late in drafts, DeShields is a perfect option. His owners may need to move on quickly if he isn’t playing full-time.

• Dylan Carlson will be in the Cardinals outfield mix next season. I’ve already heard his name on a couple of podcasts getting the sleeper label.

• Shed Long will likely be the Mariners starting second baseman. Dee Gordon is effectively DOA with this news and I could see Gordon get traded to be a bench bat on a contending team because of his speed and defensive versatility.

• Chris Sale and David Price are expected to be healthy for the season’s start.

• Nicky Lopez struggled with a wrist injury last season.

After a quick start — Lopez was hitting .324 through nine games — the challenges of the big leagues overwhelmed Lopez and he struggled to adjust over the next two months. A lingering hand/wrist injury certainly didn’t help.

But Lopez finished strong in late August and September, enough to convince critics he can be the second baseman of the future.

While he did hit an OK with a  .778 OPS in September, it was just a .627 OPS in the second half. A .627 OPS is not big-league material. He’s a late-round dart at best.

• Toronto will split up the catcher duties between Reese McGuire and Danny Jansen

• DJ Stewart out until at least April 1st after having ankle surgery.

• Roberto Pérez is also having ankle surgery.