Author Archive: Jeff Zimmerman

Overall

• Here a must-read research article. The author, Harper Wallbanger, examines the usefulness of one month’s worth of xwOBA. He found:

The ultimate takeaway is that it seems like players that underperform their xStats in the first month are good targets to pickup or trade for.

I find this information helpful. StatCast batted ball data just gets thrown in. I swear some analysts have no idea what the information means, they just want to appear all-knowing. This past offseason, I cut down the variables to the few that matter. Now with an x-stat, the usefulness is known, but I’m sure it and other stats will continue to be misused.
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A ton of hitters fell into the range of drops I examine. I’m not 100% sure why. Maybe the managers don’t feel they don’t need the extra hitters to cover for entire teams not playing.

For this analysis, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer since each spent over $1000 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between obvious and bizarre and will focus on players dropped in six to nine leagues.
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Just some quick valuation changes on each MLB lineup.

American League

Angels

• I’m far from a Brian Goodwin fan but he’s an undervalued available asset. He’s hitting fine with a .836 OPS, four homers, and a steal. With Albert Pujols, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, and Jo Adell all struggling at the plate, he’s now started seven games in a row.

• David Fletcher and Tommy La Stella are cemented into the top two lineup spots.
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Some previous research, including my own, has pointed to changes in Sprint Speed being a sign a player’s talent has changed. I decided to investigate changes from 2019 to 2020 to find who could be struggling and why. Many hitters are experiencing a drop and just a few are up.

In some way, the following information should be picked apart for a longer research article with some miraculous/groundbreaking/made-up claim that batters came to this season out of shape and that is why offensive production is down. I don’t care. All I want to know is who are the hitters who could be breaking out or down. Figuring out why is for the offseason. It’s now time to wins leagues.
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American League

Angels

The Angels are considering cutting Albert Pujols’s playing time once Andrelton Simmons returns.

It would allow the Angels to play David Fletcher at second base and still have La Stella in the lineup playing first base, as Fletcher will remain an everyday player when Simmons returns but will be a super-utility player.

It would come at the expense of Pujols, but the veteran slugger has struggled at the plate this season.
…
Pujols, 40, wasn’t in the lineup on Saturday and is batting .186/.238/.356 with three homers and eight RBIs in 15 games this season. Maddon remains confident Pujols will get going, but it does appear that his at-bats could be reduced once Simmons returns.

The big winner is Tommy La Stella who should keep much of his playing time.
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Adds and drops are starting to settle in with about two-thirds of the season left. This is the first week when there wasn’t really a theme. If any trend can be seen is that owners are getting tired of part-time bats.

For this analysis, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the owners stay engaged longer since each spent over $1000 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between obvious and bizarre and will focus on players dropped in six to nine leagues.
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Fewer obvious adds are available this week. It seems like the good players with regular playing time are finally all getting rostered. While some rookies (Bohm, Garcia, and Carlson) just got promoted, I like some of the available veterans more. Also, the closer situations have calmed down.

As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers and hitters.
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Again, I’m diving into some lowly-owned starters who have changed their pitch mix since last season. A couple seem to have potential.

Daniel Mengden (3% Owned at CBS)

While he’s better known for his 80-grade mustache, he’s trying to mix up his pitches to become useful. He’s reorganized a bunch of pitches that have helped but other parts of his game are dragging him down.
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