Author Archive: Jeff Zimmerman

And the 2021 draft prep data dumps continue. Today, the injury chances for hitters and starters take center stage. I’ve been trying to wrap my head around injuries since I’ve started writing about baseball. The reason it’s a difficult subject to nail down is that the information is spotty.

Also, if a player checks all the factors to head to the IL (Injured List), he could have that one magical season (i.e Stephen Strasburg in 2019) when he never gets hurt. Adding to the mess is that the league moved from the 15-day IL to the 10-day IL, back to the 15-day IL (for only pitchers), and then just started making up rules for 2020. Through it all, the following risk assessments cut through a lot of the narratives and are solid going into next season.

Starting Pitchers

During the extended offseason, started reinvestigating my analysis of pitcher injury chances with a literature review, injury chances, and how injuries lead to increase aging. While age and fastball velocity are still factors, career IL days and arm injuries are most likely to point to future injuries and degraded performance. The simple thresholds were 120 career IL days and three or more arm injuries. Here is a list of the starters (min 10 IPin 2020) who meet both criteria (full list).
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After focusing the 2021 prep on hitters for the last couple of weeks, it’s time for pitchers to take center stage. There is no way to hide that the following is mostly a data dump with a small bit of analysis. Welcome to mid-October 2021 draft prep.

Single Season Projections

These projections are about as simple as it gets. It takes a pitcher’s 2020 results and projections the pitcher going forward based just on those stats. With some pitchers completely changing their pitch arsenal, I find these projections are a better evaluation tool than multi-year averages. For a reference, here is the full write up on how they are created.
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I’m just trying to grind through any nuggets in the end-of-season wrapups. I’ve found that teams out of the playoff picture provided better nuggets since they beat writers filling their article quotas writing about possible postseason lineups and rotations. I’ve got a few more late articles to comb through. I expect little to no usable news until the winter meetings.

American League

Angels

• Dylan Bundy should be ready for a full workload in 2021.

Angels pitching coach Mickey Callaway said the way he and his staff approached the summer’s pandemic-induced layoff should help curb this. He estimated that Dylan Bundy has thrown “about 180 innings” this year from all the throwing on his ranch in Oklahoma, the summer training and his 65 2/3 innings in the big leagues this season. That would be about the same amount as what he threw in 2019 (161 2/3 with Baltimore plus spring training). It’s still something to monitor next year, though.

I expect all veteran pitchers to have the same limit since teams were most likely looking ahead to 2021, but it would be nice to have it stated about as many pitchers as possible.

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I just released my two simple projections and Gary Sánchez could not be any more polarizing. Using just last season’s stats, he projects to post a replacement-level .656 OPS. And when I use multiple years of StatCast data, he projects for a .889 OPS, the 4th best overall value. The difference comes down to BABIP regression.

To say Sánchez had a disappointing 2020 is a huge understatement. For the hitters with 170 or more plate appearances, his .618 OPS ranked 13th worse. His .147 AVG was the worst. It was fueled by a combination .159 BABIP (2nd worst only to Edwin Encarnacion) and 36% K% (6th worst). The single-season projection’s regression raises his BABIP up to .223 and his AVG to .193. They are better but still far from rosterable.
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Last season, I introduced two independent projections to help fantasy managers evaluate players. One is based on just the hitter’s previous season production and the other is based entirely on StatCast data. It’s time to have them available for 2021 draft prep.

As I previously stated, this is the reason behind the projections:

I created the projections with inspiration from “The Model Thinker” by Scott Page.* The author states, “do not put too much faith in one model”. To further explain this stance, he states:

“The lesson should be clear: if we can construct multiple diverse, accurate models, then we can make very accurate predictions and valuations and choose good actions.
…
Keep in mind, these second and third models need not be better than the first model. They could be worse. If they are a little less accurate, but categorically (in the literal sense) different, they should be added to the mix. “

Several projection systems already exist. Other projections take many projections and combine them. The issue is that projections are exclusively based on the previous season’s results (e.g. stolen bases, home runs) while incorporating some various levels of regression, aging factors, and yearly weightings. My goal is to create projections that don’t follow this standard cookie-cutter formula. I expect the projections to not be the most accurate because “all models are wrong.” I’m wanting a unique perspective on a hitter’s talent.
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The 2021 draft season may be the most unpredictable one … ever. While several rule changes (e.g. NL DH) can cause some evaluation inconsistencies, the biggest monkey wrench to deal with will be the lack of previous season stats. Projection systems will weight the 60-game 2020 season (37% of a normal season) to historical averages but what are those who don’t use traditional projections systems? Or read or listen to people who don’t care for them in order to create a compelling narrative? It’s time to anchor some historical context around those narratives.

All analyses “should” start with at least some set of weights. For those who start with one, they’ll have an advantage. For those who guess the correct one, they’ll have a huge edge. The issue with setting weights is how to create a short season one that fills all the narratives.

First, most of the players were rushed to get game-ready and were not 100% ready when the season started. So the beginning of the season stats could be used to replicate this ramping up period, but the weather was still warm at the season’s end increasing offensive output. Maybe the entire first month should be ignored with everything in flux. Possibly the last two because that were the 2020 regular season months. played. So, I decided to look into all the possible options including a horrible first attempt.
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• One item missing from this article are hitters who played through an injury. While it needs to be updated, all the information can be located here.

• For Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, it took about two months for mechanical adjustments to take hold.

“In a shorter season, obviously everything gets magnified,” Rangel pointed out. “It’s tougher. In a regular season, we’d have about three or four months more to go, which gives you a little bit more time to kind of settle things down. It’s just hard this year, the way things are.”

Case in point: Lance Lynn.

In 2019, Lynn was 2-2 with a 6.51 ERA after five starts. By the time his recovery started to look legit, he was about to make his 11th start (Gibson, meanwhile, has 11 starts this season). If the season ended after two months and 12 starts, as it will for Gibson in 2020, Lynn’s line would have been good but not great: 7-4, 4.50 ERA, 77 strikeouts and 22 walks in 74 innings. Instead, Lynn took June through September and finished fifth in Cy Young voting.

The findings are just a data point that seems to be in line with other findings. Players need around a month or two to implement a change or get ready for the season. Just keep the idea in mind when a hitter is coming off the IL or missed part of Spring Training.
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I know information from the 2020 season will be suspect for future use and that includes closer usage patterns. Some parts are interesting. Others useless. Before going through each closer situation, I figured it would be a blood bath. After a month of constant flux, the results are better than I expected (not one established closer lost his job in September). The useable information seems to be in line with the last few seasons.

First off, the emphasis of this study is to determine how many draft-day closers make it through the season. Here is this season’s list with all previous studies found here.

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10/12/20: Note: First, thanks to everyone for the help. Second, the comments are closed so if any player needs to be added, reach me at @jeffwzimmerman on Twitter. -Jeff

With the season just over, I’d like some help collecting the hitters who played through an injury in 2020. First, I’m not looking for those who may have struggled because of COVID-19 complications (e.g. Austin Meadows, Scott Kingery, Yoan Moncada). That’s another study for a later date.

The information can help fantasy managers help point to why a hitter may have struggled when their 2021 prep begins. Also, my research has shown that these hitters see a production decline. It’s one offseason data point to get out of the way.

Please let me know if I’m missing any in the comments. All I ask is that as much information as possible be provided like the location (e.g. hip), when (e.g. summer camp), or an article link. Just a name doesn’t help. From my own notes and begging on Twitter, here are the hitters I have so far (list from 2017, 2018, 2019). Thanks.
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I’m as competitive as hell. I hate not winning. Simply…

So is almost everyone else. While many people search for an edge, they aren’t looking into harmful habits that erode that edge. All the gains an owner could get from researching the best players can be lost if he constantly overspends rostering them. Many times what a person considers to be an edge can actually be a hindrance. Here are several ideas that help me back and now that I’ve changed my stance
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