Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman

11:04
Big Joey: Max Fried a top 15 SP in 2021?

11:05
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s not for me. The strikeout drop is alarming. If he repeats 2020, he’s a bad version of Kyle Hendricks.

11:06
Jeff Zimmerman: Expect for the 2.25 ERA. I expect it to jump up at least a run, possibly two.

11:06
Big Joey: Would you be shocked if Gleyber Torres puts up a .280  40  100/100 season in 2021?

11:07
Jeff Zimmerman: For sure. I’m not a fan at his price and I think the 2019 HR’s will be a huge outlier.

11:08
Jeff Zimmerman: The AVG is would be a career high but reach able. The Runs and RBIs are expected if he stays on the field.

11:08
Guest: Does Sanchez have more fantasy value staying with Yanks or moving to another team,I assume Yanks would be quicker to sit him than a new team

11:09
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s done right now. I think the best case for Sanchez is to go to 2nd or 3rd tier team, be the second catcher, and then DH.

11:10
Big Joey: Is Kershaw a good keeper at this point? He’s got a ton of mileage and he’s clearly not prime-Kershaw anymore, but the SP landscape is so bare and the Dodgers are just so good (Wins/Losses). Fried or Kershaw for the next 3 seasons?

11:11
Jeff Zimmerman: Even though I was done on Fried earlier in the chat, I do like him over Kershaw over three seasons. Kershaw’s back injuries popped back up and they will become more and more of an issue as he ages.

11:11
Sean: I have Kopech for $14 and Puk for $9 in an ottoneu league and am struggling to decide if they are worth keeping.  I can get a solid mid rotation piece in the auction for that price without the upside or a lower level arm for $2-$3.  I guess i answered my own question there, but where would the line drawn for overpriced pitching prospects?

11:13
Jeff Zimmerman: Kopech is out IMO, with Puk it’s closer and someone may love him. Feel free to let them both go.

11:13
Slapshot: I’m in a weekly moves league where before the season begins I have to decide whether I’ll designate Shohei Ohtani as a hitter or a pitcher.  Where do you see him as being more valuable to my team in 2021?  I’m decently loaded for pitching, but my hitting, as is usual with this team, needs work.  Or, should I look to trade him instead?

11:13
Jeff Zimmerman: Trade him.

11:14
Jeff Zimmerman: It sounds like he’ll try to throw again and IF successful, he’ll only DH a few days.

11:16
Jeff Zimmerman: Now, if the pitching fails again, he’s in a three-headed 1B/DH monster with Pujols and Walsh.

11:16
Jeff Zimmerman: For those reasons, he’s just not worth the hassle right now.

11:16
Offer up: What is a fair offer for Ottoneu Fangraph $52 Juan Soto? I offered $59 Bryce/$25 Bieber/$25 Devers. Thank you

11:17
Jeff Zimmerman: That seems fair. Bieber and Devers could get Soto at those prices.

11:17
JP: Where do you sit on Dinelson Lamet? I think he’s the next Chris Archer. A guy with strong Ks who has too wide of an ERA variance to merit his draft price

11:18
Jeff Zimmerman: I was high on him until the late season injury. Now, I’m off. The two-pitches are fine but once the velocity goes, the pitcher is done (e.g. Patrick Corbin). Also, the pitcher could develop a new pitch and take a step forward.

11:19
Jon: Is Rowdy Tellez the real deal? Sure is a pretty statcast page.

11:19
Jeff Zimmerman: Ssshhhhhhhhh!!!!!

11:19
Mike H: Any news in the last month got you pumped about a player?

11:21
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve been deep diving starting pitchers, so the names are more interesting than anything else. Chatwood could be a good add. Alozay (sp?) of the Cubs has made a few great changes. All the Marlin starters … so much goodness going on there.

11:21
Brad: Thoughts on Civale this year?  Thanks.

11:22
Jeff Zimmerman: I like him in the cost should be low enough …

11:23
Jeff Zimmerman: 188 ADP on NFBC … I guess not a deal

11:24
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he needs to clean up a few things like dumping the slider.

11:24
Jeff Zimmerman: He could go in some many directions.

11:24
Bret: where would you rank the guys getting posted such as Sugano, arihara and Ba in FYPD?

11:25
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m going to wait until they are all posted and then dive in.

11:25
Pete: 5×5 roto (i.e. traditional categories) would you rather have Arenado or Devers for the next 5 years?

11:26
Jeff Zimmerman: Devers and it’s not even close

11:26
Trader Bob: Are you with the conventional wisdom on Tyler Stephenson (kinda good, will likely be eased in on the short side of a platoon), or are you more down or up on his possibilities to pan out slightly more than the usual catcher prospect does?

11:28
Jeff Zimmerman: I think I’m up, but I’ll never buy in early. Catcher have so much going on it seems like it takes several seasons for them to get going.

11:28
Buff: In an NL only keeper league I have Luke Weaver and Adrian Houser on the bubble at $7.00. Do you have a take on those guys? Keep, drop, or try to trade?

11:28
Jeff Zimmerman: Damn those are close

11:29
Jeff Zimmerman: IMO, i’d throw them back and you should at least get them back at that cost but possibly cheaper

11:29
Jefferson: How do you feel about Gavin Lux? Should he still be considered a top 10 prospect in baseball? It worries me that the dodgers seemingly lost faith in him after less than 200 PAs. They wouldn’t carry him on the WS roster

11:30
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he heads to the minors until he figures a few things out. I’ve been low on him for a while (platoon issues). The Dodgers have other options.

11:30
Bob Villar: Kelenic or Franco for fantasy purposes only?

11:31
Jeff Zimmerman: They both should be great. I think it’s Franco but I know I could be wrong.

11:31
JJJ: Darby Swanson for real?

11:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Looks that way. There is a great piece in The Athletic on him and other Braves hitters.

11:32
Erik Guy: What is enough of a package to deal for Louis Robert in a 12 team standard dynasty league with 3 year contracts?  I was hoping to package 2 of the following: Voit, Vlad Jr, Gore, Madrigal, Keiboom, Pablo Lopez and N. Pearson.  I’m in complete rebuild and only set on holding Bichette.  All players involved have full contract length.

11:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Voit, Vlad, and Gore are the only options. The others are non-factors.

11:34
Jeff Zimmerman: It depends if the other team is competitive. If so, Voit and Vlad should help them. If you don’t come with them, the trade might now happen.

11:34
RMR: How would you rank these starters in terms of odds of holding down a rotation spot?  What about in terms of performance if they do?  Morejon, Alzolay, Trevor Rogers, Corbin Martin, Bubic

11:35
Jeff Zimmerman: Alzolay, Bubic ………………..Morejon, Martin, Rogers.

11:35
RMR: Is Meadows going to get platooned?

11:36
Jeff Zimmerman: I thought he was, but it depends on if/when Alcantara returns to the team.

11:36
Sean: Where do you see Almora ending up this season?

11:37
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s a fine player but fantasy doesn’t count defense. I think he remain irrelevant.

11:37
Quadrangular: Do you like Winker or Happ to continue to build on their 2020 in 2021?

11:37
Jeff Zimmerman: Happ yes, I’m not as high on Winker.

11:37
Tom: Hosmer’s lauch angle, here to stay??

11:37
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m guessing no, he’s just too stubborn to change.

11:38
The Final Boss: Huge MiLB shakeup inbound. My heart goes out to all those cities about to lose teams. That being said, seems like most of the changes are positive for the product as a whole.

11:38
Jeff Zimmerman: It needed to happen for a while and the band-aid was slowly being removed. MLB just went for the full rip.

11:39
Jeff Zimmerman: Now, with the short draft and less teams, I think there is a good opportunity for Indy ball to help some kids get found. It might take a year or two for everything to come into place.

11:39
Guest: Will Austin Hays leadoff for the Orioles all season long?

11:40
Jeff Zimmerman: All the Orioles are tough to evaluate. They have flashed of good play and then can’t do anything. Mullins could also leadoff.

11:41
Guest: I just started talking trades, and got an interesting offer in my QS/OBP keeper.  I give up Franmil, Blackmon, Anderson and Gausman for Maeda and Stanton.  At first, this seems like a lot, but Stanton has upside that might be worth gambling,especially in OBP, and Maeda is likey a top 15 pitcher in QS.  Am I crazy to consider this?

11:41
Jeff Zimmerman: Make the trade, you’re getting the 2 best players.

11:41
RMR: Do the Angels give Barretto a real shot at 2B?  Or do they put a vet in front of him?

11:42
Jeff Zimmerman: Barretto is done and there are several FA 2B that can be added who are better than Barretto

11:42
RMR: Among VanMeter, Rojas and Andy Young, who has the best chance to find consistent PT in Arizona this year?

11:43
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve liked Young the best but Arizona doesn’t agree. They are fairly even but gun to my head … VanMeter.

11:43
RMR: Does Cole Tucker get a starting spot this year?  Kind of interested in him as a late dart throw.

11:44
Jeff Zimmerman: We’ll see who is left on the Pirates so the job might happen. The problem is that Tucker’s not good. Just pass.

11:44
Alex: Will Bo Bichette at some point be better than prime Tulo?

11:45
Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. Tulo’s prime will be tough to replicate, but if Bichette stays healthy, the final product might be better.

11:46
Tyler Durden: Keep one, NL only OBP league: $3 Devin Williams, $1 Lamet, $4 Nimmo. How concerned are you about Lamet’s elbow?

11:46
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m concerned about Lamet, but at $1, he’s with a chance.

11:46
Felix: What should we expect of Brian Reynolds? His rookie season was nice although he had a high BABIP but he had one at every stop in the minors. K% getting higher is worrying though.

11:47
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m staying away mainly because he seems to be an accumulator, but the Bucs are so bad, the Runs and RBI might just be 60/60.

11:47
Barely Awake: Sean Murphy draws lots of walks and has a ton of raw power and should have the bulk of the playing time going forward. Am I wrong thinking he could be a top-5 OBP league catcher in keeper/dynasty leagues?

11:48
Jeff Zimmerman: I wouldn’t count on it with how often catchers get injured. I’d just go year-to-year with the catcher position in dynasty and keeper leagues.

11:49
Atilla the pun: Mike Minor NFBC ADP 343.  Michael A Taylor 725.  Do they go up with the Royals signing?  Sounds like the Royals want Taylor to be their starting CF.

11:49
Jeff Zimmerman: I think so, especially Taylor. Playing time and the Royals propensity to run will have his value up.

11:50
Johnny5Alive: I know nothing has played out yet, but at this point, does Amed Rosario need to be on a different team to be worth keeping at $10 in NL only league with $270 cap?  The speed was absent last year

11:50
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s expected to just be a bench bat for the Mets. I think he gets moved at some point.

11:51
RMR: How does Josh Bell come out of this horrendous season?

11:52
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s only had one good half season. Fantasy owners need to give up any hope of a rebound.

11:52
Guest: what do you think of Deivi Garcia and Singer as buy low SP options, I know royals wont win, but I hear most say Singer is a 4/5 and I think he is more of a solid 3 without the wins.  Garcia, similar a 3, but with wins, could be a solid fantasy contributor wiht a 14W 4.0-4.5ERA 160IP 160K guy is pretty valuable at the price you can get him for….

11:52
Jeff Zimmerman: Like both, especially Singer. They both need to be drafted in all leagues.

11:53
DH: Keeper league: deal Grandal or Nola to improve elsewhere?

11:53
Jeff Zimmerman: Sell on Nola

11:53
Jon: Who is your favourite 2B past ADP 200?  Fletcher, McMahon, Kingery, LaStella, France

11:54
Jeff Zimmerman: LaStella (safe) or France (upside). I’d grab France and then pick LaStella off the waiver wire.

11:54
Alex: What can I expect from Christian Arroyo next season?

11:54
Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing, just like every other season.

11:54
DEW: What kind of fantasy trade value does Joey Gallo have? Do I believe in him more than others?

11:55
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s a fine play in OBP or points leagues and I own him often in those formats. In AVG leagues, he’s only here for the home runs.

11:55
Buck Farmers Only: @will the Royals fix Michael A Taylor?@

11:57
Jeff Zimmerman: Like Kansas City has ever developed a player with plate discipline. I swear Dayton gets tingling feelings whenever he sees a walk rate under 5%.

11:57
Nick: how do you rank these guys in a dynasty, and how close are they? severino, bundy, gausman. It’s a very deep league (over 1,000 rostered players including minors).

11:57
Jeff Zimmerman: That order and make sure to keep each one.

11:58
Isolated Thinker: With d’Arnaud elevating himself into the group of elite catchers, how would you rank him, Realmuto, Contreras, Grandal, and McCann?   Catcher position seems more thin going into ’21.

11:59
Jeff Zimmerman: Realmuto and McCann can’t be ranked right now until their situations are known. Also, the NL DH with be huge factor for each. If each was placed in the same setting, I’d no Realmuto, Grandal, Contreras, McCann.

11:59
Dayton Moore Talking Head: How many games should position eligibility be?

11:59
Jeff Zimmerman: 10 feels right

12:00
Mike Hawk: Do you think Robles is still capapble of the once projected 40 SB season?

12:00
Jeff Zimmerman: If he ever gets on base enough

12:00
shach one: Pick 2 shortstops for a fantasy points league. Seager, Turner Bichette, Lindor

12:00
Jeff Zimmerman: Turner and Lindor

12:00
bobsyouruncle: Is Staumont going to get leapfrogged by some cheap closer options (like a Morrows?) as the Royals try to develop assets for the 2021 trade deadline?

12:01
Jeff Zimmerman: I would guess so. The bullpen needs a few arms.

12:01
Jeff Zimmerman: That’s it for this week and I’ll be around next week. -Jeff





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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