It’s time for the final installment of “Why We Missed”. The breakout pitchers and hitters are done along with the disappointing pitchers so it’s time to dive into hitting busts.

To determine who disappointed, I collected the information on any hitters who saw more than a $10 decline in value from their draft-day price. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. I only analyzed the hitters who had a positive draft day value.
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After looking at the pitchers and hitters who exceeded expectations, it was time to examine the players who didn’t live up to their ADP. I had a good idea this list would be loaded with pitchers who missed a ton of time and I was correct. Of the 48 pitchers featured, 39 spent time on the IL at some point last season.

To determine who disappointed, I collected the information on any pitcher who saw more than a $10 decline in value from their draft-day price. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. I just analyzed the pitchers who had a positive draft day value.

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A couple of weeks back, I examined why the industry might have missed on some breakout hitters. It was tough to find anything actionable with the hitting breakouts. It’s now time to see any useful information that can be extracted from the pitching side.

I collected the information on any pitcher who finished the season with positive production in a 15-team league and saw more than a $10 jump in value from their draft-day price. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. In all, 46 pitchers made the cut

There were several more categories than hitters butseveral are actionable. One item I ran into was an issue with where to draw a line with the change. Bradley Newman pointed out the mechanical changes Giolito went through to see his production drastically improve.

https://twitter.com/PhillyStars27/status/1187056648877154305

The changes were the root cause but if his plate discipline stayed the same, the adjustments wouldn’t have mattered. Also, it’s tough for the average fan to find out about these adjustments in real-time. The linked article was taken from late-May after Giolito was already universally owned. It was useless for any fantasy owner.
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The following tidbits are the most fantasy-relevant news I’ve found so far this offseason.

• Lots of information in this article to consider about Shohei Ohtani. One item that finally clicked with me was that his late-season injury was a knee issue.

Ohtani, though, proved he’s still a strong hitter, batting .286/.343/.505 with 18 homers and 62 RBIs in 106 games, but he saw his season end on Sept. 11 after undergoing surgery to address a bipartite patella in his left knee. The injury began to flare up in Spring Training, but Ohtani played through it, as it mostly only affected him as he ramped up his throwing program off the mound.

Tommy John recoveries need to get their new tendon from somewhere and it’s usually the knee. I wonder if the knee wasn’t healed from the elbow operation.

Also, his 2019 value seems limited by just pitching once a week and batting in just half the games.

Ohtani remains on track to return to two-way status in 2020, as he’s expected to pitch once a week and serve as the DH roughly three to four times a week. But he has to get his rehab done with both his knee and elbow this offseason, as he’s yet to fully complete his throwing program.

He is expected to be cleared to finish his throwing program in December and the hope is that he’ll have enough time to be ready for the start of the season. Ohtani is likely to be behind the other pitchers early in Spring Training, but it’s still too early to know the full plan heading into next year.

He’ll be limited to about 25 starts and in weekly lineup leagues, he’s just a half-time bat. Owners in bi-weekly lineup moves (e.g. NFBC leagues) can hope he hits during one of the two weekly blocks and not split time.
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Note: For my next few articles, I’m going to examine the hitters and pitchers who underperformed and overperformed in 2019. Each article may spawn off others since some areas may need to be explored in more detail. After performing horribly in 2019, I need to take take a hard look at why I missed last season and what I can do to improve.

I’m going to start with the one player class every owner hopes to hit on, breakout hitters. A couple of these cheaply acquired star hitters can help carry a team. It could be a prospect turned uber-prospect (e.g. Pete Alonso) or just a hitter displaying new skills (e.g. Ketel Marte). I’m going to dig into the reason these breakouts were not draft-day targets and look for any common themes.

To get the test subjects, I ran our auction calculator for end-of-season production and then compared the auction dollars to the values created from their ADP. I didn’t want to just use the difference in ranks because the gap from #1 to #15 could be over $10 but the difference between #250 to #300 might just be $1. Using this method, I found 62 hitters who outperformed their value by $10 or more.
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I knew the final prediction result tally was going to be rough but it was worse than expected.

Note: I used the default league setting in our auction calculator to determine the final ranks.

1. Jung Ho Kang will be a top-10 starting third baseman by season’s end.

Whoa, not a good start. I’m not even sure if he was a top-10 third baseman on his own team.

0 for 1
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After doing an overview of the juiced ball and a focus on pitchers, I started down a path to find out which hitters would be most affected by the juiced ball. I didn’t know it was going to be overrun with thorn bushes and misleading signs. The process was nearly impossible for the simple fact that the league’s hitting profile changed. Besides even considering the ball, batters were hitting more flyball, hitting the ball harder, and pulling it over short corner fences. I tried to find one answer but ended finding another.

One key to this analysis is that I wanted to keep it simple. I didn’t want to pump the data into some neural network for a more “correct” answer where I’d not sure of the factors in play and how each one was weighted. I wanted some clarity.

One set of factors I initially used was the StatCast information but I didn’t use it for the final analysis because it didn’t add any accuracy. Groundball rate is almost a perfect proxy for Launch Angle. Home run per batted ball is basically a Barrel. Also, StatCast data has only been available since 2015 when the juiced ball started. There is no baseline data for the deadened ball period.
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… but not by much for teams I just owned …

My 2019 fantasy season did not live up to my standards with most of the struggles being self-inflicted. Here are some overarching themes I spotted with each league plus some additional points at the end.

Horrible FAAB management

I ran out of money in almost every league and spent too much FAAB on worthless assets. Looking back over the leagues, the root cause was chasing week-only plays. From my work writing “The Process”, I found out how valuable it is to grind out each week. Additionally, I ran the weekly FAAB projections here so I knew around what it would take to get each. Initially, I got the players and but dropped them a week or two later for better options with little to show for the FAAB spent

I need to set a FAAB limit for chasing week-only plays and just accept it’s fine to miss out on a few players. A week’s advantage is worth the same in week 1 or the final week. The rest of my FAAB can be used for chasing long term improvements. Some players may straddle the long-term and weekly play so the FAAB may come from both the weekly and long term pools. I need to have a plan and stick to it.
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I’ve screwed up. A lot. A few years back, I created a pitching metric called pERA which took each individual pitch’s results (swinging-strike and groundball rate) and combined them into one metric. The problem was that I wrote the article in 2016 and used a formula I created back in 2015 with 2002-2015 data. The juiced ball arrived and I never adjusted the formula for the change. Oopsy.

I felt a little sick when it finally dawned on me that the formula needed updating and ma initial findings are available in this Twitter thread.

I've invested too much time this morning looking into GB%, ERA, and ERA estimators. Two conclusions:

1. Happy Fun Ball has everything messed up. Don't assume any previous assumptions are true.
2. Groundball pitchers are ruling the day.

1/6

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 16, 2019

It finally dawned on me that the formula I was using to evaluate pitchers was off. With strikeouts and walks being equal, groundball pitchers outperform flyball pitchers. With a deadened ball, a high flyball rate meant most flyballs would go for easy outs. Not any more. Now those flyballs go for home runs. It’s time for a little math to show the change.
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While the 2019 season is still semi-fresh in everyone’s mind, I have one simple request. Which hitters played through an injury instead of going on the Injured List this past season?

I’ve collected the players for the past couple of seasons (2017 and 2018). It’s time to compile the 2019 list even though the effects on a projection may be limited. Here are the players I have so far.

Name: Injury (link)

• Nolan Arenado: Toe injury (link)
• Javier Báez: Bruised heal limited his production, (link)
• Cody Bellinger: Bum shoulder (link)
• David Bote: Broken toe (link)
• Khris Bryant: Knee issues (link)
• Lorenzo Cain: Not batting leadoff until wrist healthy (link)
• Matt Chapman: Ankle/knee issues (link)
• C.J. Cron: Thumb (link)
• Nelson Cruz: Wrist? (link)
• Khris Davis: Hip bothered him (link)
• Daniel Descalso: Ankle (link)
• Freddie Freeman: Bone spur in elbow (link)
• Keston Hiura: Hamstring (link)
• Rhys Hoskins: Hand (link)
• Aaron Judge: Oblique (link)
• Max Kepler: Knee (link)
• Ramón Laureano: Shin (link)
• Yadier Molina: Finger (link)
• Mike Moustakas: Fractured finger (link)
• Daniel Murphy: Finger (link)
• Brandon Nimmo: Neck (link)
• Marcell Ozuna: Shoulder not 100% (link)
• Tommy Pham: Hand (link)
• Roberto Pérez: Ankle (link)
• Gregory Polanco: Shoulder (link)
• Hunter Renfroe: Ankle and elbow (link)
• Anthony Rizzo: Sprained ankle (link)
• Justin Smoak: Quad (link)
• Domingo Santana: Inflamed elbow (link)
• Mike Trout: Foot (link)
• Trea Turner: Finger (link)
• Alex Verdugo: Back issues (link)
• Luke Voit: Hernia (link)

Late adds

Marwin Gonzalez (link)

If anyone knows of anyone I missed, please say so in the comments with a link to the source. I not looking for guess but the player or his team saying he’s hurt. Thanks for the help.