Author: Paul Sporer | Page 76 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 29th, 2023

March 29, 2023

Transcript is now available!

1:00	Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

1:01	Oil Can: I tailed your love of Andrew Vaughn and Hunter Brown, reasonable expectations this season for both?

1:04	Paul Sporer: If Vaughn stays healthy, I can definitely see another power and AVG jump… something like 23-25 HRs and a .280 AVG. Brown also needs his back to hold up, but if so, I think he can drop 130 IP with a 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 145 Ks

1:04	Quarantino Martinez: Opening Day!!!! I thought I was maximally procrastinating at work already but they ain’t seen nothing yet.

1:04	Paul Sporer: Bout to hit another level with day baseball games!

1:05	Guest: What do you think of Julio Urias for JT Realmuto (current catcher is William Contreras).

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1157 – Major Spring Training News

by Paul Sporer

March 28, 2023

3/28/23

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

@sporer – Host
@justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

Triston McKenzie injury
Rhys Hoskins injury; Darick Hall ascends
Grayson Rodriguez sent down; Tyler Wells in
Christopher Morel sent down; Edwin Ríos in
Anthony Volpe made the Yankees
Jordan Walker made the Cardinals

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4 Breakout Starting Pitchers for 2023

by Paul Sporer

March 24, 2023

As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout”. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost.

Kyle Bradish | BAL

My Projection: 3.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 175 Ks, 10 W in 166 IP

Bradish is getting some spring buzz in different pockets of the fantasy world, but remains remarkably affordable at the draft table as the 81st SP off the board in Main Event drafts so far. The 26-year-old righty is looking to build off a strong second half (3.73 FIP in 71 IP), including an absolute gem against Houston in late-September (1 out shy of a Complete Game with 10 Ks and 0 BB). He will need to trim his home run rate (1.3) which should certainly be possible in the revamped Camden Yards that is now a pitcher-friendly park and one major key will be continue reliance on his slider over the fastball. He was using it 36% of the time in his final 8 starts, up 10 points from his first 15, and shaving fastball usage is addition by subtraction. I’m not getting hung up on Bradish’s ugly spring ERA (8.74), but rather focusing on the 14 Ks and 3 BB in 11.3 innings. If he can trim down his implosion starts (8 last year), there is substantial potential here.

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4 Breakout Outfielders for 2023

by Paul Sporer

March 22, 2023

As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout”. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost.

Lars Nootbaar | STL

My Projection: .267/.357/.451, 23 HR, 76 R, 69 RBI, 8 SB in 583 PA

Yep, I’m on the Noot Train. I’m just a sucker for a plate profile like that (0.72 BB/K – 16th highest among hitters with 300 PA, tied with Nolan Arenado). He’s got enough pop to chase down a biiig homer number, too (30+). I thought he was going to be a Wide Awake Sleeper – sleepers on every list, robbing them of any real draft value – but the early Main Event drafts saw him dropping so you can still get him as a reasonable price (ADP 188). He does have 6 SBs in 471 MLB PA, too, so I wonder if he could be a sneaky double-digit guy by taking advantage of the new rules. He is 2-for-2 on the bases in the WBC.

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 22nd, 2023

by Paul Sporer

March 22, 2023

Earlier than normal to account for my travels this week, but here’s the transcript:

9:01	Paul Sporer: Good morning, y’all! Thanks for coming out

9:05	John: Paul great job pointless end of draft question. Backup 2B Segura or Wong? Thanks

9:06	Paul Sporer: Not necessarily pointless, those guys can always pop off a level beyond their normal. They’re close, but I go with Segura there!

9:06	Dusty: What are your thoughts on Wander Javier and what’s his upside ?

9:07	Paul Sporer: Unlimited!

9:07	Rick: its been a while since I’ve been on here, are there updated positional ranks?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1156 – Main Event Movers

by Paul Sporer

March 21, 2023

3/21/23

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

@sporer – Host
@justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

Jose Altuve broken thumb
Carson Kelly fractured forearm
Gabriel Moreno’s ascent
Eloy Jiménez nicked calf
Vaughn Grissom optioned
Michael Brantley expected to start on IL
Jorge Polanco could start on IL

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3 Breakout Shortstops for 2023

by Paul Sporer

March 17, 2023

As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout” as at least one of these selections has undoubtedly broken out before so it’s almost a re-breakout that I have them doing in 2023. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost. I understand that a “breakout” is more a first time thing, but they aren’t necessarily “sleepers” (although there is usually at least one guy in each of these pieces that is more deep league-friendly), either, so I chose the better of the two words.

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3 Breakout Third Basemen for 2023

by Paul Sporer

March 15, 2023

Third base is rightly critiqued for its sharp drop of star talent around Alex Bregman or maybe Gunnar Henderson if you are in on him. I see Max Muncy as a bridge to Questionsville around pick 135. Some of my breakouts live in Questionsville, but are cheap enough to take on those potential red flags. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost.

Josh Jung | TEX

My Projection: .250/.321/.443, 22 HR, 72 R, 78 RBI, 4 SB in 571 PA

It was a weird debut sample for Jung that featured some impressive pop (.214 ISO), but at the cost of way too many strikeouts (38%) in 102 PA. In the end, it’s a tiny sample coming off injury and Jung showed solid plate skills during his minor league ascent (21% K, 8% BB), capable of a much better AVG while not exactly giving back all the power (.311 AVG, .227 ISO in 675 MiLB PA). He is the 20th 3B off the board in Rotowire Online Championship leagues (236th) and I have him 14th with upside to hit low-.270s with a mid-20s HR total.

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 15th, 2023

by Paul Sporer

March 15, 2023

Beware the Ides of My Chat!!

That doesn’t make any sense, but I did chat on the Ides of March… transcript is now available!

1:06	Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!!

1:06	Ted: Trade Jazz Chisholm for Brandon Woodruff in a keep forever? My offense is loaded, but I need arms.

1:06	Paul Sporer: I’m good with that given your context especially

1:06	Craig: Looks like Rodolfo Castro will win the 2B job in PIT, with 3B eligibility. For NL only leagues, do you think he’s a viable option? See upside in him?

1:07	Paul Sporer: Oh I’m a Dolfo fan!! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/3-breakout-second-basemen-for-2023/

1:10

Greg: Jeff Zimmerman recently tweeted some concerns about Jordan Walker’s swing and miss (

Jeff Zimmerman

@jeffwzimmerman

During yesterday’s pod, I mentioned Jordan Walkers’ propensity to swing and miss.

During ST so far, he has a 23% SwStr%. Here are the SwStr% and K% rates from Apr last year (min 30 PA).

Once he starts facing Major league pitching, a .200 AVG is absolutely in play.

LaunchAnglePod@LaunchAnglePod

Join @RobSilver @jeffwzimmerman @deadpullhitter
as they continue on @TheNFBC ADP:
P: H.Brown, Sonny Gray, Cobb, Lange, E.Cabrera, Berrios, E.Phillips
B: Jordan Walker, Miguel Vargas, Laureano, J.Naylor, Josh Rojas, Segura, Arraez, Seth Brown, Stott
podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/rober…

9 Mar 2023

Do you have any concerns about that? I have him in a super cheap keep forever league, but that was the first time I’ve seen that concerned mentioned about Walker and I’m wondering if it would be better to sell high. What do you think?

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