Starting Pitcher Chart – May 8th

May 8, 2023

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Getting my schedule back on track this week so the charts will be back the night before instead of morning of. There will be occasional times in-season when it’s early the following morning, but the expectation is late night the day before.

Monday, May 8th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Zac Gallen	ARI		MIA	R	x	x	x	Matching last year’s incredible run with full skills support (2.46 SIERA) thanks to an 8 pt. K surge (35%) and cutting his BB in half (3%)
2	Shane McClanahan	TBR	at	BAL	L	x	x	x	Almost seems like he’s coasting as the Rays are just rolling day in and day out
3	Nestor Cortes	NYY		OAK	L	x	x	x	50 pts of BABIP & surge in HR rate are the major differences from last yr, exacerbated by a 3-HR shellacking at TEX last time out; don’t panic
4	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG		WSN	R	x	x	x	How is he not 100% rostered even in shallower formats? No way pitching is deep enough that at least 1 tm in every lg can’t use him!!
5	Tanner Bibee	CLE		DET	R	x	x	x	An all-formats must-start right now; he’ll eventually hit some bumps as everyone does, but the early returns are great
6	Freddy Peralta	MIL		LAD	R	x	x	x	Tough matchup, but I can’t imagine anyone has a deep enough rotation where they sit someone like Peralta?
7	Hunter Brown	HOU	at	LAA	R	x	x	x	3 starts of 7 IP, 3 starts under 5 IP… easy start everywhere, just has some inconsistency to work through
8	Logan Gilbert	SEA		TEX	R	x	x	x	Baseball is weird: managed a 3.20 ERA w/last yr’s 16% K-BB, it surges to 24% so far this yr and his ERA is north of 4.00
9	Dylan Cease	CHW	at	KCR	R	x	x	x	Has only made it more than 5 IP 2x this yr as he’s having a tougher time stranding all the BB
10	Mitch Keller	PIT		COL	R	x	x	x	Skated with 4 UER at TBR, but don’t sleep on the 8 K/1 BB; he should be more widely rostered in shallower formats
11	Marcus Stroman	CHC		STL	R	x	x	x	I mentioned this last time out: he’s essentially his normal self & that 2.18 ERA will eventually regress to mid-3.00s or so
12	Braxton Garrett	MIA	at	ARI	L	x	x	x	He’ll be working those 11 ER off for quite some time… that said, I’m getting back on the saddle here
13	JP Sears	OAK	at	NYY	L		x	x	1st HR-free outing of the season last time out & he could shave a run or more off his ERA if he can continue to limit HRs (4.07 SIERA)
14	Miles Mikolas	STL	at	CHC	R		x	x	Now has a 3.13 ERA in his L4 after allowing 5+ ER in his first three starts… let the 4.40 SIERA guide you
15	Patrick Sandoval	LAA		HOU	L		x	x	Hasn’t paid for the ugly skills meltdown w/a 5.00 SIERA looming over that ERA, will he improve the K-BB or does the ERA start to surge?
16	Kyle Freeland	COL	at	PIT	L		x	x	PIT bubble bursting? Just 7 runs scored in an 0-6 May so far
17	Joey Wentz	DET	at	CLE	L		x	x	On an every other start pattern right w/1 good, 1 bad… those patterns aren’t bankable, but this matchup is streamable
18	Tony Gonsolin	LAD	at	MIL	R		x	x	Still ramping up, need a couple more starts to really get a handle on where he’s at
19	Zack Greinke	KCR		CHW	R				Not a bad matchup, but I always just worry that there isn’t enough upside to take on the extreme risk
20	Jon Gray	TEX	at	SEA	R				Could eventually stabilize back into a useful fantasy arm, but a tough start anywhere right now
21	Kyle Gibson	BAL		TBR	R				How do I get merked by him ever yr? He looks trustworthy to stream and then gets absolutely rolled in KC?!
22	Jake Irvin	WSN	at	SFG	R				Nondescript rookie unlikely to deliver much fantasy upside

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Monday, May 8th Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Zac Gallen	ARI		MIA	R	x	x	x	42.2	2.53	0.84	32%	0.290	26th
2	Shane McClanahan	TBR	at	BAL	L	x	x	x	40	2.03	1.10	22%	0.342	10th
3	Nestor Cortes	NYY		OAK	L	x	x	x	33	4.91	1.18	19%	0.322	16th
4	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG		WSN	R	x	x	x	38	2.13	0.82	19%	0.291	25th
5	Tanner Bibee	CLE		DET	R	x	x	x	11	2.45	0.91	30%	0.283	28th
6	Freddy Peralta	MIL		LAD	R	x	x	x	34.2	3.63	1.27	20%	0.344	5th
7	Hunter Brown	HOU	at	LAA	R	x	x	x	34.2	2.60	1.18	15%	0.331	9th
8	Logan Gilbert	SEA		TEX	R	x	x	x	33.2	4.01	1.07	24%	0.355	3rd
9	Dylan Cease	CHW	at	KCR	R	x	x	x	35.1	4.58	1.44	15%	0.299	21st
10	Mitch Keller	PIT		COL	R	x	x	x	40.2	3.32	1.20	20%	0.323	12th
11	Marcus Stroman	CHC		STL	R	x	x	x	41.1	2.18	1.09	14%	0.312	18th
12	Braxton Garrett	MIA	at	ARI	L	x	x	x	26.1	5.81	1.67	14%	0.314	20th
13	JP Sears	OAK	at	NYY	L		x	x	32	5.06	1.19	20%	0.319	18th
14	Miles Mikolas	STL	at	CHC	R		x	x	37.1	5.79	1.66	14%	0.335	7th
15	Patrick Sandoval	LAA		HOU	L		x	x	30.2	2.93	1.27	7%	0.321	17th
16	Kyle Freeland	COL	at	PIT	L		x	x	38.1	3.76	1.10	12%	0.345	7th
17	Joey Wentz	DET	at	CLE	L		x	x	28.1	6.67	1.41	10%	0.265	29th
18	Tony Gonsolin	LAD	at	MIL	R		x	x	8	3.38	1.50	-3%	0.316	14th
19	Zack Greinke	KCR		CHW	R				36	5.25	1.33	13%	0.287	27th
20	Jon Gray	TEX	at	SEA	R				30.2	4.40	1.40	4%	0.315	17th
21	Kyle Gibson	BAL		TBR	R				41	4.61	1.34	10%	0.359	2nd
22	Jake Irvin	WSN	at	SFG	R				4.1	2.08	1.38	-5%	0.330	10th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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TheUncool

11 months ago

Get the feeling Stroman may get blown away by a Red Birds lineup that’s just about ready to explode on the road, especially at a park like Wrigley. Stroman just seemed like he’s been overperforming largely against weak lineups so far, and he was mostly not good against the Red Birds last year, especially at Wrigley, while losing a tick of velo and getting significantly fewer called strikes so far this year, which is problematic given his pedestrian whiff rate — and St Louis can certainly stack their lineup w/ tough, mostly patient lefties + Goldy against him… though I guess they still might not sit Arenado (yet?).

I’m just gonna sit him in my moderately deep salary dynasty.