Starting Pitcher Chart – May 2nd

May 2, 2023

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

New Feature Alert: I’ve added a chart of the previous night’s starters with a quick hit take on their performance. That way I don’t have to wait 5 days to give insight on how it went. Let me know what you think about it!

Tuesday, May 2nd Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Joe Ryan	MIN	at	CHW	R	x	x	x	Pitching like a Top 10 arm right now and is laying the foundation for a special season
2	Gerrit Cole	NYY		CLE	R	x	x	x	Riding an 86% LOB in this hot streak, but skills are supporting a brilliant season even as it regresses
3	Zac Gallen	ARI	at	TEX	R	x	x	x	Building on a brilliant 2022 and really establishing himself as a bona fide ace: 2.15 ERA, 0.93 ERA, 22% K-BB in his last 270 IP
4	Sandy Alcantara	MIA		ATL	R	x	x	x	A couple of QS (1 incl. 2 UER) after the 9 ER dud though some are still questioning him a bit… I’m nowhere near sitting him
5	Hunter Brown	HOU		SFG	R	x	x	x	Far too early to seal anything, but backing up the breakout tag with virtually the same skills we saw out of the pen last yr (18% K-BB, 12% SwStr)
6	Tanner Bibee	CLE	at	NYY	R	x	x	x	Brilliant debut and obviously won’t be that good every time out, but he’s a Must Start for me right as I trust him to be consistently good immediately
7	Julio Urías	LAD		PHI	L	x	x	x	Expected BABIP regression (.326) has come w/a HR issue incl. 2 in each of his L3; 21% K-BB still plays and 3.70 SIERA should calm some of the panic
8	Tyler Wells	BAL	at	KCR	R	x	x	x	Quality streamer has been sharp and gets a great matchup… I might even stick with him for a weekend trip to ATL in 12s and lower
9	Tanner Houck	BOS		TOR	R	x	x	x	The talent is certainly there and they seem committed to him; we could see big things in the summer… consider buying in trade lgs
10	Joey Lucchesi	NYM	at	DET	L	x	x	x	Held up v. low-K WSN, but now gets #1 tm in Ks vLH (32%) making him an easy stream in a fantastic 2-step setup (v. COL this wknd)
11	Matt Strahm	PHI	at	LAD	L	x	x	x	Has gone 5+ IP in 3 of L4 putting him in must-start territory… Mason Miller can be the RH version of this in terms of volume & results (Miller throws much harder)
12	Bryce Elder	ATL	at	MIA	R	x	x	x	3 HR sank him v. MIA, but I like him for a bounceback in their house and I’m starting him everywhere for the 2-step (v. BAL this wknd)
13	Graham Ashcraft	CIN	at	SDP	R	x	x	x	Essentially a luckier Wesneski & I’m also a huge fan of his so I’m starting him everywhere as I believe his 4.95 SIERA will push closer to his 2.10 ERA… or rather they will meet somewhere in the mid-3.00s
14	Mason Miller	OAK		SEA	R	x	x	x	If 3-5 IP with a great K rate and likely solid ratios (3.34 SIERA) is useful in your lg, keep running him out… wins will be scant
15	Freddy Peralta	MIL	at	COL	R	x	x	x	Coors is a Studs-Only Zone (SOZ) and I think Peralta makes the cut of studliness… or maybe I’m just remembering his MLB debut: 5.7 IP, 1 H, 13 K, 2 BB… in Coors!
16	Hayden Wesneski	CHC	at	WSN	R	x	x	x	Big Wesneski guy so my positive full season outlook has lengthened my leash for sure… but the 14% K-BB in his L3 is encouraging, just need to see the SwStr start rising
17	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	at	STL	L	x	x	x	OAK was the perfect Rx w/his first 0 BB gm of the yr; hasn’t fully paid for his poor control but the Ks are coming (14% SwStr, 23% K in L3 starts)
18	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG	at	HOU	R		x	x	HOU offense just hasn’t been scary and Tony Disco is rolling to start the season
19	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	at	BOS	L		x	x	How to survive a 2.0 HR: post a 6% BB and 97%(!) LOB. I wanttt him to be good, but I worry about a pretty sizeable pullback
20	Bryce Miller	SEA	at	OAK	R		x	x	83rd ranked prospect brings a huge fastball & strong slider; has traded some command for control early on (4% BB, 8% in MiLB career; 2.3 HR, 0.8 career)… definite pickup, not necessarily an immediate start
21	Michael Wacha	SDP		CIN	R		x	x	Going to repeat my comment from last time out: He’s a 15+ tm streamer, he’ll probably be cycled around the league all summer
22	Ryan Feltner	COL		MIL	R			x	Kept my attention in a sharp 6 IP/1 UER outing at CLE, but I’m not confident in Coors… 2-step includes trip to NYM, too, so I’m not even confident in weekly lineup lgs where you have to take both
23	Josh Fleming	TBR		PIT	L			x	Has only allowed 2 ER in 16 IP since 5 ER debut… that risk is ever present so be careful
24	Jon Gray	TEX		ARI	R				His Kopechian start makes him a difficult play in any format right now; I’m OK holding, but I’d prefer these premium prospects to him in 12s & under for sure
25	Michael Kopech	CHW		MIN	R				At least he was HR-free in TOR (2.8 rate); I can see this being a final salvo for those hanging on w/a 2-step (at CIN this wknd)… good luck
26	Roansy Contreras	PIT	at	TBR	R				Part of a Pirates trio that is now all-formats rosterable (Keller, Oviedo), but still not using anyone but the cream of the crop v. TBR
27	Steven Matz	STL		LAA	L				A perfectly viable streamer and this one is a pass in daily lgs. I would take on this tough one for the wknd start v. DET in a weekly lg, though
28	Michael Lorenzen	DET		NYM	R				Elements of quality in each start, but too inconsistent to trust until we see a couple good starts strung together
29	Trevor Williams	WSN		CHC	R				Just not enough upside to take on the risk especially with this matchup
30	Ryan Yarbrough	KCR		BAL	L				Not sure we’ll find any streaming spots with a 4% K-BB and 7% SwStr on the ledger

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Tuesday, May 2nd Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Joe Ryan	MIN	at	CHW	R	x	x	x	32	2.81	0.81	26%	0.290	27th
2	Gerrit Cole	NYY		CLE	R	x	x	x	40.2	1.11	0.84	22%	0.303	21st
3	Zac Gallen	ARI	at	TEX	R	x	x	x	37.2	2.15	0.77	33%	0.342	5th
4	Sandy Alcantara	MIA		ATL	R	x	x	x	30.1	5.04	1.15	14%	0.332	11th
5	Hunter Brown	HOU		SFG	R	x	x	x	30.1	2.37	1.05	18%	0.368	2nd
6	Tanner Bibee	CLE	at	NYY	R	x	x	x	5.2	1.59	1.06	35%	0.300	24th
7	Julio Urías	LAD		PHI	L	x	x	x	32.2	4.41	1.29	21%	0.327	14th
8	Tyler Wells	BAL	at	KCR	R	x	x	x	29	2.79	0.72	19%	0.264	30th
9	Tanner Houck	BOS		TOR	R	x	x	x	26	4.50	1.35	13%	0.318	16th
10	Joey Lucchesi	NYM	at	DET	L	x	x	x	12.1	2.19	1.05	17%	0.314	19th
11	Matt Strahm	PHI	at	LAD	L	x	x	x	23.1	2.31	0.81	28%	0.282	24th
12	Bryce Elder	ATL	at	MIA	R	x	x	x	29	2.17	1.21	14%	0.296	26th
13	Graham Ashcraft	CIN	at	SDP	R	x	x	x	30	2.10	1.17	7%	0.318	17th
14	Mason Miller	OAK		SEA	R	x	x	x	8.1	6.48	1.32	25%	0.306	20th
15	Freddy Peralta	MIL	at	COL	R	x	x	x	28.2	3.77	1.19	18%	0.302	23rd
16	Hayden Wesneski	CHC	at	WSN	R	x	x	x	22.1	5.24	1.52	7%	0.287	28th
17	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	at	STL	L	x	x	x	25.2	3.16	1.29	7%	0.348	6th
18	Anthony DeSclafani	SFG	at	HOU	R		x	x	30	2.70	0.93	21%	0.306	22nd
19	Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	at	BOS	L		x	x	27	3.00	1.11	21%	0.330	12th
20	Bryce Miller	SEA	at	OAK	R		x	x	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.298	25th
21	Michael Wacha	SDP		CIN	R		x	x	25.1	6.75	1.58	14%	0.309	19th
22	Ryan Feltner	COL		MIL	R			x	25	4.68	1.48	12%	0.333	10th
23	Josh Fleming	TBR		PIT	L			x	19.1	3.26	1.29	9%	0.370	2nd
24	Jon Gray	TEX		ARI	R				25.1	3.91	1.34	4%	0.336	7th
25	Michael Kopech	CHW		MIN	R				25.2	7.01	1.71	9%	0.329	12th
26	Roansy Contreras	PIT	at	TBR	R				27.2	3.58	1.34	10%	0.371	1st
27	Steven Matz	STL		LAA	L				26	6.23	1.73	12%	0.365	3rd
28	Michael Lorenzen	DET		NYM	R				14	7.07	1.64	15%	0.332	13th
29	Trevor Williams	WSN		CHC	R				26.1	4.10	1.29	10%	0.345	4th
30	Ryan Yarbrough	KCR		BAL	L				17	6.35	1.35	4%	0.346	7th

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Monday, May 1st Starter Review

Paul’s RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	NOTE
1	Spencer Strider	ATL	at	NYM	Modest 5 IP/4 ER output, but 8 Ks and a W are enough
2	Drew Smyly	CHC	at	WSN	Only 2 Ks in an otherwise excellent outing (7 IP/1 ER/W)… a lineup staple right now
3	Luis Garcia	HOU		SFG	Removed with right elbow discomfort after just 8 pitches, stay tuned for info
4	José Berríos	TOR	at	BOS	He got got in Fenway… velo and spin rates were fine, just a tough matchup
5	Charlie Morton	ATL	at	NYM	Couldn’t get a W to salvage the start; 6 Ks soften the blow of 5 IP/4 ER
6	MacKenzie Gore	WSN		CHC	2 BB after 8 in his L2, but a season-high 7 H saddled him w/4 ER; trip to ARI this wknd won’t be easy
7	Domingo Germán	NYY		CLE	3rd HR-free outing & he’s allowed 1 ER in each of them
8	Blake Snell	SDP		CIN	Looked solid in a quality start and made it through 6 IP for the 1st time of the yr
9	Cal Quantrill	CLE	at	NYY	Vintage Quantrill instills some confidence for his believers
10	Luke Weaver	CIN	at	SDP	Rosy outlook: this was the hard part of the 2-step \| Realistic outlook: you knew what you were getting into.. Sunday could easily go similarly (4.3 IP/4 ER)
11	Ross Stripling	SFG	at	HOU	Part 1 of the 2-step was a rousing success if you took the gamble (5 IP/2 ER)
12	Tylor Megill	NYM		ATL	Not bad in a tough matchup given what we’ve seen thus far; I’m starting him v. COL this wknd
13	Tony Gonsolin	LAD		PHI	Wasn’t great; did make it 80 pitches & now gets 2 in a row v. SD
14	Corey Kluber	BOS		TOR	This is probably what we’ll get regularly (5.3 IP/3 ER) with fluctuating K outputs (7 on Monday)
15	Taijuan Walker	PHI	at	LAD	The Dodgers can still bust anyone up
16	Denyi Reyes	NYM		ATL	Opener got worked in a brutal inning of work

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues