Starting Pitcher Chart – May 1st
by Paul Sporer
May 1, 2023
In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!
Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Monday, May 1st Starter Notes
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer Strider | ATL | at | NYM | R | x | x | x | The best pitcher in baseball right now, especially with deGrom sidelined |
| 2 | Drew Smyly | CHC | at | WSN | L | x | x | x | I said this last time he started, but it’s more about health than talent w/him so as long as he’s upright, I’m starting him in most spots |
| 3 | Luis Garcia | HOU | SFG | R | x | x | x | 13 scoreless IP over his L2 suggest he’s figured out his issues w/the pitch clock | |
| 4 | José Berríos | TOR | at | BOS | R | x | x | x | Is he back? He looks back. I want him to be back. I hope he’s back. |
| 5 | Charlie Morton | ATL | at | NYM | R | x | x | x | His 4.72 SIERA says he’s a bit over his skis with a modest K-BB, but it’s up to 15% in his L4 after his 1-K opener |
| 6 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN | CHC | L | x | x | Putting up great results, but still not addressing his biggest issues: the walks (14% BB, 7th highest among SP) — could lead to a reckoning soon | ||
| 7 | Domingo Germán | NYY | CLE | R | x | x | His 2.4 HR rate is a bit more palatable w/a 22% K-BB and 17% SwStr rate, but the 6 ER of his last start is always in play | ||
| 8 | Blake Snell | SDP | CIN | L | x | x | Only allowed more than 3 ER once this yr, but a 17% BB and 2.0 HR are holding him back; still have a hard time sitting him, particularly in a 2-step | ||
| 9 | Cal Quantrill | CLE | at | NYY | R | x | Just a downturn or modest skills coming home to roost? He had a 5-start run nearly equal to this last yr before a 2.75 ERA in his L16; still a nervous start for me | ||
| 10 | Luke Weaver | CIN | at | SDP | R | x | 16 K in his first 2 starts, but also 10 ER… risky, but deeper leaguers should consider the 2-step (at SD, CWS) | ||
| 11 | Ross Stripling | SFG | at | HOU | R | x | No idea what to expect as he’s ping-ponged from starter-to-reliever so he might only go 3-4 IP; open to a deep lg start given the 2-step | ||
| 12 | Tylor Megill | NYM | ATL | R | x | 12 K, 10 BB in 20 IP since his 7 K, 2 BB solid opener | |||
| 13 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | PHI | R | x | Modest season debut and could still be hard pressed to finish 5 IP this time out so I’m not starting him everywhere | |||
| 14 | Corey Kluber | BOS | TOR | R | Just can’t trust him with that 2.6 HR rate | ||||
| 15 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | at | LAD | R | Has gone fewer than 5 IP in 3 of his 5 outings | |||
| 16 | Denyi Reyes | NYM | ATL | R | Getting a spot start for the doubleheader, but I can’t see taking this shot |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Monday, May 1st Starter Stats
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | OPP L30 wOBA | wOBA RK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer Strider | ATL | at | NYM | R | x | x | x | 30 | 1.80 | 0.83 | 33% | 0.332 | 13th |
| 2 | Drew Smyly | CHC | at | WSN | L | x | x | x | 28 | 3.21 | 0.93 | 19% | 0.339 | 8th |
| 3 | Luis Garcia | HOU | SFG | R | x | x | x | 27 | 4.00 | 1.26 | 18% | 0.368 | 2nd | |
| 4 | José Berríos | TOR | at | BOS | R | x | x | x | 28.2 | 4.71 | 1.08 | 22% | 0.338 | 6th |
| 5 | Charlie Morton | ATL | at | NYM | R | x | x | x | 29.1 | 2.76 | 1.40 | 11% | 0.332 | 13th |
| 6 | MacKenzie Gore | WSN | CHC | L | x | x | 27 | 3.00 | 1.30 | 17% | 0.364 | 4th | ||
| 7 | Domingo Germán | NYY | CLE | R | x | x | 8.1 | 4.32 | 1.68 | 8% | 0.303 | 21st | ||
| 8 | Blake Snell | SDP | CIN | L | x | x | 23 | 5.48 | 1.87 | 7% | 0.313 | 20th | ||
| 9 | Cal Quantrill | CLE | at | NYY | R | x | 25 | 5.40 | 1.64 | 6% | 0.300 | 24th | ||
| 10 | Luke Weaver | CIN | at | SDP | R | x | 11.2 | 7.71 | 1.37 | 24% | 0.318 | 17th | ||
| 11 | Ross Stripling | SFG | at | HOU | R | x | 15.2 | 6.89 | 1.60 | 13% | 0.306 | 22nd | ||
| 12 | Tylor Megill | NYM | ATL | R | x | 25 | 3.96 | 1.48 | 6% | 0.332 | 11th | |||
| 13 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | PHI | R | x | 3.1 | 0.00 | 1.50 | -14% | 0.335 | 8th | |||
| 14 | Corey Kluber | BOS | TOR | R | 24 | 6.75 | 1.33 | 11% | 0.318 | 16th | ||||
| 15 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | at | LAD | R | 25.1 | 4.97 | 1.38 | 8% | 0.342 | 3rd | |||
| 16 | Denyi Reyes | NYM | ATL | R | 6.1 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 22% | 0.332 | 11th |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Megill’s stuff, command and control has backed way up since his hot start last April. The strike outs are way down and the walks are up I have no confidence in him against anyone but especially the Braves. Reyes is the opener today so don’t expect more than 2-3 innings from him.
Yeah I’m pretty out on him, too. The only reason Megill even got the 15 x is bc I can see starting the 2-step in a weekly since he has COL at home this wknd but the ATL is definitely scary