Starting Pitcher Chart – May 5th

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

New Feature Alert: I’ve added a chart of the previous night’s starters with a quick hit take on their performance. That way I don’t have to wait 5 days to give insight on how it went. Let me know what you think about it!

Friday, May 5th Starter Notes
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ NOTE
1 Clayton Kershaw LAD at SDP L x x x Still unquestionably one of the best in the gm
2 Luis Castillo SEA HOU R x x x Career-best 6% BB rate is helping fuel the beautiful sub-1.00 WHIP
3 Zack Wheeler PHI BOS R x x x Hasn’t been an unmitigated ace, but there are no reasons to be all that concerned, either
4 Cristian Javier HOU at SEA R x x x Kinda quietly doing great despite the 5 HR in his L4 starts
5 Max Fried ATL BAL L x x x Dialed in with just 1 ER in his first 4 starts
6 Chris Sale BOS at PHI L x x x Riding a 1-up, 1-down pattern so far, but skills say he’s just fine (3.84 SIERA)
7 Yu Darvish SDP LAD R x x x Allowed 3 HR but only 4 ER in the launching pad of Mexico City
8 Hunter Greene CIN CHW R x x x The ugly .394 BABIP has his WHIP soaring but don’t lose sight of the markedly improved HR rate w/just 1 allowed all season
9 Corbin Burnes MIL at SFG R x x x Has run his K-BB back up to 17% in his L4 after a meager 2% in his first 2
10 Bailey Ober MIN at CLE R x x x With a long-term opportunity, he should be picked up everywhere
11 Justin Steele CHC MIA L x x x Won’t sustain at this level but there is some K upside w/a career-best 12% SwStr
12 Jordan Montgomery STL DET L x x x The one good Cardinals SP… and I’d start him everywhere despite the difficult matchup
13 Chris Bassitt TOR at PIT R x x x BB are uncharacteristically high, but he does have a 3.03 ERA & 1.24 WHIP since that 9 ER opening dud
14 Lance Lynn CHW at CIN R x x x Maddeningly inconsistent and yet there’s a path forward if he can coral that 2.2 HR rate
15 Josiah Gray WSN at ARI R x x Just 1 HR in his L4 has made him one of the key early pickups of the season
16 Kodai Senga NYM COL R x x At least 3 BB in each of his 5 starts makes him a big WHIP negative right now so he’s not being started everywhere
17 Yonny Chirinos TBR NYY R x x I wish they’d keep an opener with him and pump up his W expectancy; as-is I think he’s worth at least a hold
18 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI WSN R x x The 5.04 SIERA says to be leery of the 3.06 ERA thanks in large part to a 2x BB rate from last yr at 14%
19 Sean Manaea SFG MIL L x MIL can be picked on w/LHP right now, but Manaea hasn’t been good enough to roll out everywhere
20 Dane Dunning TEX at LAA R x deGrom fill-in could find some deep lg relevance if he can push his K-BB back toward 12-13%
21 Peyton Battenfield CLE MIN R x Another shot to generate some Ks w/that 13% SwStr, though he did develop a BB issue w/a 15% rate; talent is there for this risky spot start
22 Matthew Boyd DET at STL L x Could see using him in some deeper formats if I had no one else
23 Dean Kremer BAL at ATL R Velo is up but skills are similar to last yr’s; needs to curb the homers to work back toward his 4.68 SIERA
24 Rich Hill PIT TOR L Hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last 4 starts, but allowed 7 ER the start before that so the risk is massive & I don’t love this matchup
25 Tyler Anderson LAA TEX L 3 starts of 5+ ER, 2 starts of 0-1 ER… feeling lucky?
26 Antonio Senzatela COL at NYM R I just don’t see any real upside
27 Brad Keller KCR OAK R That 0% K-BB isn’t a misprint and will eventually push his ERA up toward 5.00 if he doesn’t improve quite a bit
28 Jhony Brito NYY at TBR R More standard streamer than next big breakout and this certainly isn’t the spot for him
29 Edward Cabrera MIA at CHC R 4+ BB in 4 of his 6 starts has left him with a 20% BB rate
30 Kyle Muller OAK at KCR L I just don’t see any real upside
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

Friday, May 5th Starter Stats
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB OPP L30 wOBA wOBA RK
1 Clayton Kershaw LAD at SDP L x x x 38 1.89 0.76 25% 0.353 6th
2 Luis Castillo SEA HOU R x x x 34.2 1.82 0.92 22% 0.290 24th
3 Zack Wheeler PHI BOS R x x x 32.2 3.86 1.22 21% 0.343 6th
4 Cristian Javier HOU at SEA R x x x 33.2 3.48 1.13 20% 0.314 17th
5 Max Fried ATL BAL L x x x 20 0.45 0.90 19% 0.339 11th
6 Chris Sale BOS at PHI L x x x 29.1 6.75 1.47 19% 0.302 21st
7 Yu Darvish SDP LAD R x x x 30 3.60 1.20 18% 0.352 2nd
8 Hunter Greene CIN CHW R x x x 28 2.89 1.43 23% 0.284 26th
9 Corbin Burnes MIL at SFG R x x x 33.2 4.01 1.13 12% 0.350 4th
10 Bailey Ober MIN at CLE R x x x 11.1 1.59 1.06 11% 0.283 28th
11 Justin Steele CHC MIA L x x x 36.1 1.24 0.96 15% 0.340 10th
12 Jordan Montgomery STL DET L x x x 35 3.34 1.23 16% 0.356 5th
13 Chris Bassitt TOR at PIT R x x x 33 5.18 1.24 9% 0.339 9th
14 Lance Lynn CHW at CIN R x x x 32.2 7.16 1.59 18% 0.302 20th
15 Josiah Gray WSN at ARI R x x 33.2 2.67 1.28 13% 0.347 5th
16 Kodai Senga NYM COL R x x 26 4.15 1.58 12% 0.315 16th
17 Yonny Chirinos TBR NYY R x x 14 0.64 0.57 12% 0.285 25th
18 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI WSN R x x 32.1 3.06 1.30 9% 0.296 21st
19 Sean Manaea SFG MIL L x 18.1 7.85 1.64 12% 0.279 28th
20 Dane Dunning TEX at LAA R x 20.1 1.77 0.84 8% 0.321 12th
21 Peyton Battenfield CLE MIN R x 17.1 4.67 1.56 4% 0.320 15th
22 Matthew Boyd DET at STL L x 24.2 5.47 1.46 10% 0.340 9th
23 Dean Kremer BAL at ATL R 29.2 6.67 1.58 12% 0.328 11th
24 Rich Hill PIT TOR L 32.1 4.18 1.39 13% 0.326 16th
25 Tyler Anderson LAA TEX L 26.2 5.74 1.58 6% 0.333 13th
26 Antonio Senzatela COL at NYM R #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.334 10th
27 Brad Keller KCR OAK R 30.1 3.56 1.58 0% 0.283 27th
28 Jhony Brito NYY at TBR R 22.2 5.56 1.41 6% 0.362 1st
29 Edward Cabrera MIA at CHC R 27 4.67 1.74 9% 0.339 8th
30 Kyle Muller OAK at KCR L 28.2 6.28 1.92 4% 0.314 19th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

Wednesday, May 3rd Starter Review
Paul’s RK PITCHER TM OPP NOTE
1 Max Scherzer NYM at DET Wonder if he was being super cautious about using rosin after getting hassled & suspended for it
2 Logan Gilbert SEA at OAK A trip to OAK is like a bingo free space and Gilbert took advantage of the opportunity
3 Shane McClanahan TBR PIT Almost on autopilot right now w/another sub-100 pitch gem
4 Shohei Ohtani LAA at STL A couple HRs saddled him with a modest 5 IP/4 ER, but 13 Ks salvaged the start
5 Kyle Wright ATL at MIA Left early with injury and it’s looking like this could be a rough season
6 Logan Webb SFG at HOU Kind of a righty NL version of Framber Valdez just pumping out strong outings
7 Shane Bieber CLE at NYY Ks just aren’t there (4), hard to argue with 8 IP/2 ER, though
8 Framber Valdez HOU SFG Excellent 6% BB rate is being obscured by hit rate regression, yielding the 1.16 WHIP as last yr
9 Marcus Stroman CHC at WSN QS in 6 of 7; not much different than normal, though, so heed the 3.91 SIERA
10 Dylan Cease CHW MIN BABIP regression w/his 40-grade command has fueled a 7.11 ERA in his L4; still starting everywhere
11 Andrew Heaney TEX ARI Chronic HR issue strikes again w/3 in this dud outing
12 Louie Varland MIN at CHW Standout potential pickup didn’t dominate, still targeting him in FAAB this wknd
13 Alek Manoah TOR at BOS 3 unearned runs saved him here; still not himself, but I’m not sitting him
14 Brandon Pfaadt ARI at TEX Tough debut as he was blasted for 4 HR; still very interested in the promising prospect
15 Aaron Nola PHI at LAD A 6.3 IP/4 ER trip to LAD isn’t too bad
16 Braxton Garrett MIA ATL They tried to let him work through a nightmare 7-run 2nd inning but it just wasn’t his day (11 ER)
17 Joey Lucchesi NYM at DET A 3-R HR in the 1st inning sank his outing; DET isn’t easy for lefties
18 Kyle Gibson BAL at KCR Process v. results — this was a good stream choice, just didn’t pan out bc streamers are inherently risky (6 ER, 10 H)
19 Clarke Schmidt NYY CLE Showed some flashes per usual, under 5 IP in 5 of 7 starts
20 Miles Mikolas STL LAA One out shy of a QS; 1st BB-free outing since his season opener
21 Joey Wentz DET NYM Three outings of 5 ER thanks in part to a 1.9 HR rate make him tough to trust
22 Seth Lugo SDP CIN Shift back to the rotation is going well; would love to see the 8% SwStr tick up a bit to support his 22% K
23 Gavin Stone LAD PHI Rough debut and lack of role certainty will keep weekend bids in check
24 Mitch Keller PIT at TBR Survived a trip to TB w/4 of his 5 runs being unearned; love the 8 Ks
25 JP Sears OAK SEA 3 solid outings in his L4, but downside risk & lack of W potential make him a tough stream
26 Kyle Freeland COL MIL He has good outings in Coors but it’s always hard to trust throwing anyone there
27 Nick Pivetta BOS TOR Solid outing despite 2 HR, first time reaching 6 IP this yr
28 Michael Lorenzen DET NYM Love the 7 IP/1 ER, but just 1 K and 6 swinging strikes are very underwhelming
29 Eric Lauer MIL at COL Got lucky w/all 4 runs being unearned
30 Jake Irvin WSN CHC Only allowed 1 ER in his MLB debut as he was able to work around 4 BB
31 Luis Cessa CIN at SDP About as expected
32 Zack Greinke KCR BAL Upside just not really worth it, but there will be occasional gems (5 IP/0 ER)
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

Thursday, May 4th Starter Review
Paul’s RK PITCHER TM OPP NOTE
1 Pablo López MIN at CHW Pitched beautifully in the matchup of the day v. Giolito
2 Kevin Gausman TOR at BOS Uh oh, here comes the BABIP trouble again
3 George Kirby SEA at OAK Another low-K outing (2), but can’t argue with 7 IP/3 ER
4 Zach Eflin TBR PIT Getting better with every outing
5 Justin Verlander NYM at DET Settled after a pair of 1st inn. HRs for solid season debut
6 Grayson Rodriguez BAL at KCR KC obliterated Rodriguez and Kyle Gibson, ruining the big plans their fantasy mgrs had
7 Jesús Luzardo MIA ATL Did fine in a difficult matchup
8 Lucas Giolito CHW MIN Has a 2.20 ERA in 5 starts since that 7 ER dud in PIT
9 Griffin Canning LAA at STL Tough outing, but the 14% SwStr keeps me intrigued enough to hold
10 Eduardo Rodriguez DET NYM 7 ER in his first 2 starts, just 2 in 34.7 IP since then
11 Jameson Taillon CHC at WSN This was essentially his rehab outing coming back from a groin injury (3 IP)
12 Jack Flaherty STL LAA Oof, that’ll put Flaherty on a lot of waiver wires… I’d probably just bench him
13 Vince Velasquez PIT at TBR Left early w/elbow discomfort, he’s confident he’ll be fine… stay tuned
14 Wade Miley MIL at COL Survived Coors, but I can’t imgaine anyone was really streaming him
15 Brayan Bello BOS TOR I was never taking this risk, but he did well; not ready to start him at ATL next wk
16 Dylan Dodd ATL at MIA Solid QS despite 3 BB and just 1 K
17 Patrick Corbin WSN CHC Where the hell did that come from?!
18 Drew Rucinski 루친스키 OAK SEA No one started him
19 Jordan Lyles KCR BAL No one started him
20 Connor Seabold COL MIL No one started him
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

12 Comments
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Roman Ajzenmember
10 months ago

Love these daily reports. Why is facing DET a tough matchup for Montgomery? Their wRC+ vs LHP is average and it’s clearly BABIP driven.

stevemcf18
10 months ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Det is definitely swinging the bats a lot better the last few weeks but their offense overall is still dreadful. Sample sizes still pretty small against lefties so maybe just seems odd to hear the words “detroit offense” and “tough matchup” in the same sentence

Roman Ajzenmember
10 months ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Are we talking about the same Detroit Tigers, the ones who have the second worst offense in baseball by wRC+? I’m looking at the Fangraph team stats and selected the “vs L” split, which shows DET having a 98 wRC+ on the season (in only 220 ABs). On a seasonal basis their only above average rate stat is babip and given how bad they are against RHP, even if they have posted a strong line vs LHP, I’d be inclined to disregard it.

Roman Ajzenmember
10 months ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Fair enough, maybe they sucked in their first few games vs LHP and it’s dragging them down overall but not by your metric. I get how splits work, but can any team’s true talent be 80 wRC vs RHP and 140 vs LHP? Given their track record, I’m taking the under and starting Montgomery. We’ll know tonight who was right 🙂