Starting Pitcher Chart – May 4th

by
May 4, 2023
Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

I’ll include the Wednesday SP review in the Friday piece. 

Thursday, May 4th Starter Notes
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ NOTE
1 Pablo López MIN at CHW R x x x Off to his best start and MIN seems to be getting an extra level out of all their starters
2 Kevin Gausman TOR at BOS R x x x Running a 14-inning scoreless streak with 24 Ks and 1 BB; has 11+ Ks in 3 of his L4
3 George Kirby SEA at OAK R x x x Ks haven’t moved forward as hoped, but 2 BB all yr has delivered a microscopic WHIP
4 Zach Eflin TBR PIT R x x x Displaying fantastic skills that should cover the regression of his 87% LOB rate
5 Justin Verlander NYM at DET R x x x Season debut in his old stomping grounds
6 Grayson Rodriguez BAL at KCR R x x x On a streak of 14 straight scoreless innings with a 40% K and 10% BB
7 Jesús Luzardo MIA ATL L x x x A career-high .345 BABIP has his WHIP elevated; everything else looks great so he’s a must start even in this tough matchup
8 Lucas Giolito CHW MIN R x x x Has been great since the 7 ER dud at PIT: 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 20% K-BB in 25.7 IP
9 Griffin Canning LAA at STL R x x x Hasn’t made it 6 IP yet, but pitching well thru 3 starts including a career-best 15% SwStr
10 Eduardo Rodriguez DET NYM L x x x His 4.07 SIERA says the ERA is headed upward, but he’s a firm start right now (at CLE next wk)
11 Jameson Taillon CHC at WSN R x x Returning from the IL with a soft matchup, just don’t expect many Ks as WSN has the lowest K% in the league
12 Jack Flaherty STL LAA R x Don’t get caught up in the name value, he’s just a standard streamer at this point
13 Vince Velasquez PIT at TBR R Has allowed just 3 ER in his L4, but can we really start Vince Velasquez against TBR?! No… no we cannot.
14 Wade Miley MIL at COL L Solid streamer in a lot of spots, but not Coors
15 Brayan Bello BOS TOR R A .406 career BABIP has overshadowed some otherwise decent work from Bello (4.04 SIERA)
16 Dylan Dodd ATL at MIA L I just don’t see any real upside
17 Patrick Corbin WSN CHC L I just don’t see any real upside
18 Drew Rucinski 루친스키 OAK SEA R Did some great work in the KBO, would need to string together 3-4 solid starts before being trusted
19 Jordan Lyles KCR BAL R I just don’t see any real upside
20 Connor Seabold COL MIL R I just don’t see any real upside
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

Thursday, May 4th Starter Stats
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB OPP L30 wOBA wOBA RK
1 Pablo López MIN at CHW R x x x 36 4.00 1.11 25% 0.284 26th
2 Kevin Gausman TOR at BOS R x x x 38.2 2.33 1.01 31% 0.343 6th
3 George Kirby SEA at OAK R x x x 30.2 2.93 0.95 18% 0.283 27th
4 Zach Eflin TBR PIT R x x x 21 3.00 1.14 21% 0.339 9th
5 Justin Verlander NYM at DET R x x x #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.281 29th
6 Grayson Rodriguez BAL at KCR R x x x 24.1 4.07 1.40 22% 0.273 30th
7 Jesús Luzardo MIA ATL L x x x 33.2 3.48 1.34 19% 0.400 2nd
8 Lucas Giolito CHW MIN R x x x 34.2 4.15 1.18 19% 0.320 15th
9 Griffin Canning LAA at STL R x x x 15.1 4.11 1.17 16% 0.301 22nd
10 Eduardo Rodriguez DET NYM L x x x 36.2 2.21 0.87 17% 0.315 18th
11 Jameson Taillon CHC at WSN R x x 14 4.50 1.36 19% 0.296 21st
12 Jack Flaherty STL LAA R x 32 3.94 1.44 9% 0.321 12th
13 Vince Velasquez PIT at TBR R 32.1 3.06 1.18 15% 0.362 1st
14 Wade Miley MIL at COL L 29 1.86 1.00 13% 0.301 22nd
15 Brayan Bello BOS TOR R 12.1 6.57 1.86 15% 0.321 14th
16 Dylan Dodd ATL at MIA L 9.1 7.71 1.82 12% 0.340 10th
17 Patrick Corbin WSN CHC L 31.1 5.74 1.66 8% 0.373 3rd
18 Drew Rucinski 루친스키 OAK SEA R 5.2 4.76 2.12 0% 0.314 17th
19 Jordan Lyles KCR BAL R 35.1 6.11 1.36 10% 0.311 18th
20 Connor Seabold COL MIL R 13.2 5.27 1.54 15% 0.323 13th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Greggmember
11 months ago

No May 3rd SP review notes like we saw yesterday?

🙁

3
Paul Sporermember
11 months ago
Reply to  Gregg

Coming in tonight’s piece. I was up against a deadline for a mtg this morning, but I will still review them along w/today’s guys!

2
KobraCola
11 months ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

You’re the GOAT, Sporer! Really appreciate the piece either way. 🙂

1
Greggmember
11 months ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

🙂

0