Earlier than normal to account for my travels this week, but here’s the transcript:

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3/21/23

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Jose Altuve broken thumb
• Carson Kelly fractured forearm
• Gabriel Moreno’s ascent
• Eloy Jiménez nicked calf
• Vaughn Grissom optioned
• Michael Brantley expected to start on IL
• Jorge Polanco could start on IL

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As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout” as at least one of these selections has undoubtedly broken out before so it’s almost a re-breakout that I have them doing in 2023. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost. I understand that a “breakout” is more a first time thing, but they aren’t necessarily “sleepers” (although there is usually at least one guy in each of these pieces that is more deep league-friendly), either, so I chose the better of the two words.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen

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Third base is rightly critiqued for its sharp drop of star talent around Alex Bregman or maybe Gunnar Henderson if you are in on him. I see Max Muncy as a bridge to Questionsville around pick 135. Some of my breakouts live in Questionsville, but are cheap enough to take on those potential red flags. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming their draft cost.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Shortstops

Josh Jung | TEX

My Projection: .250/.321/.443, 22 HR, 72 R, 78 RBI, 4 SB in 571 PA

It was a weird debut sample for Jung that featured some impressive pop (.214 ISO), but at the cost of way too many strikeouts (38%) in 102 PA. In the end, it’s a tiny sample coming off injury and Jung showed solid plate skills during his minor league ascent (21% K, 8% BB), capable of a much better AVG while not exactly giving back all the power (.311 AVG, .227 ISO in 675 MiLB PA). He is the 20th 3B off the board in Rotowire Online Championship leagues (236th) and I have him 14th with upside to hit low-.270s with a mid-20s HR total.

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Beware the Ides of My Chat!!

That doesn’t make any sense, but I did chat on the Ides of March… transcript is now available!

1:10

Greg: Jeff Zimmerman recently tweeted some concerns about Jordan Walker’s swing and miss (   Jeff Zimmerman @jeffwzimmerman   During yesterday’s pod, I mentioned Jordan Walkers’ propensity to swing and miss. During ST so far, he has a 23% SwStr%. Here are the SwStr% and K% rates from Apr last year (min 30 PA). Once he starts facing Major league pitching, a .200 AVG is absolutely in play. LaunchAnglePod@LaunchAnglePod Join @RobSilver @jeffwzimmerman @deadpullhitter as they continue on @TheNFBC ADP: P: H.Brown, Sonny Gray, Cobb, Lange, E.Cabrera, Berrios, E.Phillips B: Jordan Walker, Miguel Vargas, Laureano, J.Naylor, Josh Rojas, Segura, Arraez, Seth Brown, Stott podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/rober… 9 Mar 2023 Do you have any concerns about that? I have him in a super cheap keep forever league, but that was the first time I’ve seen that concerned mentioned about Walker and I’m wondering if it would be better to sell high. What do you think?

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3/13/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Wait, is Joey Meneses actually good?
• Jordan Walker suffers a shoulder strain
• Michael Kopech cooks in ST debut

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As I did in the 1B piece, I’ll ask that we not get too hung up on the actual phrasing of “breakout” as at least one of these selections has undoubtedly broken out before so it’s almost a re-breakout that I have them doing in 2023. These are guys I like above their market price and have them easily outperforming said cost. I understand that a “breakout” is more a first time thing, but they aren’t necessarily “sleepers” (although there is usually at least one guy in each of these pieces that is more deep league-friendly), either, so I chose the better of the two words.

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Max Muncy | LAD | +3B elig.

My Projection: .249/.374/.506, 33 HR, 87 R, 89 RBI, 2 SB in 583 PA

It’s time to get back on Muncy Train! He got his groove back at the end of last year as the elbow stopped causing him problems and the power returned with 12 HR in the final two months after just 9 through the first four. This is a hitter just one year removed from a 36-homer season with 94 RBI and 95 R. There has been a lot of talk about how the Dodgers lineup is one of the weaker ones in recent memory which will make it tougher for him to pull another 90/90 season, but a “weaker” Dodgers lineup still isn’t weak and thus an 80/80 campaign is well within reach.

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What is a breakout? There are different definitions depending on who you ask. Can someone be a breakout if they’ve already broken out? For the purposes of this article, a breakout is someone I have projected well above their current ADP. They are going to “break out” from their draft slot and deliver more production than the market thinks. I guess I could’ve just titled this “3 First Basemen I Like More Than ADP”, but that’s a clunky title so work with me here!!

• Catchers
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Here are 3 first basemen I like this year:

Wil Myers | CIN

My Projection: .265/.343/.493, 24 HR, 66 R, 71 RBI, 7 SB in 505 PA

I’ve been banging the Myers drum since he signed with Cincinnati so I’m sure no one is surprised to see him included here. I’d be interested in a slightly below average bat in Coors Lite aka Great American Ballpark let alone someone who has been a positive bat over his career (110 wRC+ in 4149 PA), only twice dipping below average. Health has certainly been a challenge for the 32-year-old 1B/OF, but that risk is covered in his price tag. Myers is going at pick 240 on average in the 19 Rotowire Online Challenge (henceforth referred to as “OCs”) drafts from March 1st-10th making him the 27th 1B off the board (58th at OF… I promise I won’t include in the 3 Breakout OFs, too!).

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3/10/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
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• @samskiNYC – Guest: Eric Samulski

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Carlos Rodón shut down with forearm strain
• Clarke Schmidt rising up
• Tony Gonsolin unlikely to make opening day
• Jason Heyward likely to make roster
• Marlins getting older with José Iglesias/Yuli Gurriel

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Several emerging backstops have given the position a bit of a renaissance right now and it feels the deepest it has been in quite some time. While that does offer more options lean on for quality production, it also means you need more production from the position to compete with your leaguemates. Here are 3 catchers I like to put up quality numbers behind the dish this year:

• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops

Tyler Stephenson | CIN

My Projection: .288/.359/.477, 19 HR, 72 R, 77 RBI, 1 SB in 506 PA

Stephenson was on his way to a breakout in 2022 before injuries derailed him and limited him to just 50 games. I’m right back on the train for 2023! The 26-year-old hasn’t delivered a ton of power yet (.158 ISO), but his 6’4, 225-pound frame says more in on the way, especially in that ballpark. The Reds also plan to utilize his bat more by way of starts at 1B and DH ($) which is always great for catcher-eligible bat. Power is plentiful in the upper rungs of the catcher ranks, pairing it with the batting average is what makes Stephenson special.

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