Starting Pitcher Chart – May 12th

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Friday, May 12th Starter Notes
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ NOTE
1 Spencer Strider ATL at TOR R x x x 4 of his 7 outings have gone exactly 5 IP due in large part to his huge K rate running up his pitch counts
2 Gerrit Cole NYY TBR R x x x HR rate isn’t necessarily fixed w/just a 5% HR/FB that will likely at least regress to his 12% career mark if not the 16% of his last 4 yrs
3 Corbin Burnes MIL KCR R x x x 10 ER in his first 2, 7 ER since… just 26 Ks in 30.3 IP in that time, though
4 Sonny Gray MIN CHC R x x x The ERA will rise, but he’s an easy Auto Start
5 Graham Ashcraft CIN at MIA R x x x Nightmare 8 ER outing pushed ERA more in line w/his modest skills output; matchup too good not to jump back in, though
6 Chris Bassitt TOR ATL R x x x Very high BB rate (13%) since his ugly opener (9 ER), but hard to argue w/2.45 ERA & 1.08 WHIP… was drafted as a full-time starter & has re-earned that status
7 Logan Allen CLE LAA L x x x Rolling so far and while I don’t see him maintaining a 2.70 ERA, I’m happy to start him everywhere w/these skills (27% K, 7% BB)
8 Eury Pérez MIA CIN R x x x The latest elite prospect getting the call and will draw massive bids w/a great outing here
9 Drew Smyly CHC at MIN L x x x 36 pitch 1st inning stunted his last outing; still hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER since his season debut (6 ER at CIN)
10 MacKenzie Gore WSN NYM L x x x Just 5 total BB in his L3 after walking 4 in 3 of his first 4 starts… the control makes him risky every time out, but I’m riding w/him
11 Martín Pérez TEX at OAK L x x x Told y’all he’d regress… sure, it took a season-plus so I was wrong all of last yr, but still… I’ll roll w/him here
12 Kyle Bradish BAL PIT R x x x Has just been OK since the 7 ER dud, but I’m sticking with him
13 Tyler Anderson LAA at CLE L x x x Just 3 ER in his last 2 starts, but 8 BB and 10 H had him working out of many jams… in for the stream v. sputtering CLE, though
14 Matthew Boyd DET SEA L x x Now has a 15% SwStr in his L4 which has generated a 23% K rate but could deliver much more if he maintains
15 Blake Snell SDP at LAD L x x 3 or fewer ER in his L4 yielding a 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 13% K-BB in 22 IP
16 Dustin May LAD SDP R x x 6% SwStr and 10% BB rates are worse than his pre-injury levels as the .198 BABIP & 0.2 HR are hard-carrying his sparkling ratios… be careful
17 J.P. France HOU at CHW R x x Great debut and sets up w/an excellent matchup to stay hot; will see another jump in roster rate if this one is successful
18 Johan Oviedo PIT at BAL R x Needs that .341 BABIP to start coming down as he’s allowed 25 H in his L3
19 Alex Wood SFG at ARI L x That WHIP says the ERA is headed upward and that will definitely happen when his 0% HR/FB starts creeping upward; also walking 2x his normal rate which should improve
20 Adam Wainwright STL at BOS R Not enough upside to take on this tough matchup
21 Michael Kopech CHW HOU R HRs and BB off the charts making him tough to start anywhere… I’m out everywhere right now
22 Ken Waldichuk OAK TEX L Hasn’t been able to carry over skills from last yr’s MLB sample (16% K-BB, 12% SwStr) while allowing far too many homers
23 Tylor Megill NYM at WSN R Skills just haven’t been there since returning from injury after that big flourish to start 2022
24 James Paxton BOS STL L 1st MLB start since 2021; had some control issues in his 6-outing rehab — 6.23 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 10% K-BB in 22 IP
25 Marco Gonzales SEA at DET L Deep lg streamer at best but maybe not in this matchup as DET has surged vL after sitting dead last in wOBA through the first 10 days of the season
26 Ryne Nelson ARI SFG R Meager 8% SwStr really limits his upside even if and when the .331 BABIP regresses
27 Taijuan Walker PHI at COL R Absolutely not
28 Austin Gomber COL PHI L Hard to find road starts where I’m comfortable w/Gomber let alone his Coors outings
29 Trevor Kelley TBR at NYY R Josh Fleming is the primary… not interested in him or Kelley
30 Josh Taylor KCR at MIL L Max Castillo is the primary… not interested in him or Taylor
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

Friday, May 12th Starter Stats
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB OPP L30 wOBA wOBA RK
1 Spencer Strider ATL at TOR R x x x 40 2.70 0.93 34% 0.317 12th
2 Gerrit Cole NYY TBR R x x x 51.2 2.09 1.01 21% 0.345 4th
3 Corbin Burnes MIL KCR R x x x 39.2 3.86 1.13 11% 0.311 18th
4 Sonny Gray MIN CHC R x x x 40 1.35 1.10 20% 0.330 7th
5 Graham Ashcraft CIN at MIA R x x x 37.2 3.82 1.33 8% 0.276 29th
6 Chris Bassitt TOR ATL R x x x 40 4.28 1.23 8% 0.329 8th
7 Logan Allen CLE LAA L x x x 16.2 2.70 1.26 20% 0.318 16th
8 Eury Pérez MIA CIN R x x x #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.295 23rd
9 Drew Smyly CHC at MIN L x x x 38.1 3.05 0.99 16% 0.283 27th
10 MacKenzie Gore WSN NYM L x x x 37 3.65 1.43 18% 0.306 21st
11 Martín Pérez TEX at OAK L x x x 37.1 3.86 1.55 10% 0.335 12th
12 Kyle Bradish BAL PIT R x x x 19.2 5.95 1.73 10% 0.319 13th
13 Tyler Anderson LAA at CLE L x x x 31.2 5.40 1.64 5% 0.250 30th
14 Matthew Boyd DET SEA L x x 30.2 5.28 1.34 13% 0.273 28th
15 Blake Snell SDP at LAD L x x 35 4.89 1.57 12% 0.302 24th
16 Dustin May LAD SDP R x x 40.1 2.68 0.94 9% 0.294 24th
17 J.P. France HOU at CHW R x x 5 0.00 0.80 20% 0.285 26th
18 Johan Oviedo PIT at BAL R x 37 5.59 1.62 10% 0.313 17th
19 Alex Wood SFG at ARI L x 10 1.80 1.40 11% 0.307 20th
20 Adam Wainwright STL at BOS R 5 7.20 1.60 22% 0.359 2nd
21 Michael Kopech CHW HOU R 37.2 5.97 1.57 8% 0.281 27th
22 Ken Waldichuk OAK TEX L 36 7.25 1.75 8% 0.374 3rd
23 Tylor Megill NYM at WSN R 35.1 4.33 1.50 6% 0.300 21st
24 James Paxton BOS STL L #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.329 14th
25 Marco Gonzales SEA at DET L 30.2 4.70 1.47 9% 0.369 4th
26 Ryne Nelson ARI SFG R 36 6.00 1.53 8% 0.328 10th
27 Taijuan Walker PHI at COL R 34.2 5.97 1.41 12% 0.311 19th
28 Austin Gomber COL PHI L 33.1 6.75 1.59 4% 0.292 26th
29 Trevor Kelley TBR at NYY R 2 9.00 1.50 -10% 0.281 28th
30 Josh Taylor KCR at MIL L 11 6.55 1.36 23% 0.250 29th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

Thursday, May 11th Starter Review
Paul’s RK PITCHER TM OPP T 10 12 15 NOTE
1 Drew Rasmussen TBR at NYY R x x x Beautiful outing… 7 scoreless on just 76 pitches
2 Bailey Ober MIN SDP R x x x Solid baseline QS w/his first 2 HR of the season
3 Nathan Eovaldi TEX at OAK R x x x Came up just shy of the Shutout w/13 Ks in 113 pitches, he’s rolling!
4 Yu Darvish SDP at MIN R x x x Great work in the duel w/Ober for the unquestioned ace
5 Alex Cobb SFG at ARI R x x x Strong outing, wish the Ks would jump (3 Ks, 5 Swinging Strikes)
6 Kodai Senga NYM at CIN R x x First 5 ER start of his MLB career, but it wasn’t the BB w/just 1 (14% season BB rate)
7 Domingo Germán NYY TBR R x 3 straight HR-free outings yielding a 1.89 ERA in 19 IP
8 Mike Clevinger CHW at KCR R x Meh… OK start, but doesn’t add any trust in him going forward
9 Brady Singer KCR CHW R Probably hit a lot of waiver wires this wk and then dropped a solid outing, still very nervous about him
10 Ben Lively 라이블리 CIN NYM R Not a bad 3 IP follow, but not fantasy viability right now
11 Tommy Henry ARI SFG L Decent enough 4.43 ERA in 4 starts, but a 0% K-BB says it won’t last
12 Luis Medina OAK TEX L Hogan Harris was listed… Medina put up a decent baseline QS w/0 BB
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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