Starting Pitcher Chart – May 11th

May 11, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a pretty risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Thursday, May 11th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Drew Rasmussen	TBR	at	NYY	R	x	x	x	More 0 ER outings (4) than not (3)
2	Bailey Ober	MIN		SDP	R	x	x	x	3 HR-free starts so far after cutting the HRs big time last yr, if that maintains he has top 35-40 starter upside for the season
3	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	at	OAK	R	x	x	x	Looking studly thus far, now we pray he can stay healthy
4	Yu Darvish	SDP	at	MIN	R	x	x	x	BB spike hasn’t (+4 pts to 9%) hasn’t really hurt him
5	Alex Cobb	SFG	at	ARI	R	x	x	x	Living off an 88% LOB rate right as that 1.24 WHIP will eventually raise his ERA, but the 3.08 SIERA isn’t bad
6	Kodai Senga	NYM	at	CIN	R		x	x	I don’t mind sitting him if your WHIP is bad in any matchup, but I’m also nervous about his 1.4 HR rate in Cincy… not a slam dunk start anywhere
7	Domingo Germán	NYY		TBR	R			x	Fantastic swing-and-miss skills (28% K, 16% SwStr, 39% Chase), but a career-long HR issue that makes him terrifying in this matchup even after success v. them last time out
8	Mike Clevinger	CHW	at	KCR	R			x	Still dropping occasional gems enough to be a streamer consideration, but I’m nowhere near seeking him out at this juncture
9	Brady Singer	KCR		CHW	R				5 outings w/5+ ER w/major HR & BABIP surges; 4.40 SIERA offers hope for deep lg viability as his 51% LOB rate pushes back toward his 71% career mark
10	Ben Lively 라이블리	CIN		NYM	R				Returning from the KBO where he did fine, but still just a low-4.00s ERA and 9% SwStr
11	Tommy Henry	ARI		SFG	L				I just don’t see any real upside
12	Hogan Harris	OAK		TEX	L				This isn’t a confirmed start yet… worth noting those stats came in a whopping 1/3rd of an inning

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Thursday, May 11th Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Drew Rasmussen	TBR	at	NYY	R	x	x	x	37.2	3.11	1.19	19%	0.286	28th
2	Bailey Ober	MIN		SDP	R	x	x	x	18.1	0.98	0.87	15%	0.293	23rd
3	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	at	OAK	R	x	x	x	44.2	3.22	1.10	21%	0.315	18th
4	Yu Darvish	SDP	at	MIN	R	x	x	x	36.2	3.19	1.12	18%	0.307	20th
5	Alex Cobb	SFG	at	ARI	R	x	x	x	40.1	2.01	1.24	19%	0.315	17th
6	Kodai Senga	NYM	at	CIN	R		x	x	32	3.38	1.47	10%	0.301	21st
7	Domingo Germán	NYY		TBR	R			x	39.1	4.35	0.94	21%	0.349	4th
8	Mike Clevinger	CHW	at	KCR	R			x	35.1	4.84	1.53	11%	0.302	22nd
9	Brady Singer	KCR		CHW	R				33.2	8.82	1.60	14%	0.285	29th
10	Ben Lively 라이블리	CIN		NYM	R				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.328	11th
11	Tommy Henry	ARI		SFG	L				15.2	5.17	1.53	0%	0.326	13th
12	Hogan Harris	OAK		TEX	L				0.1	162.00	18.00	-63%	0.373	3rd

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Wednesday, May 10th Starter Review

Paul’s RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	T	10	12	15	NOTE
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	at	MIL	L	x	x	x	Another masterpiece by a true legend
2	Luis Castillo	SEA		TEX	R	x	x	x	Tough 3rd inn. where all 3 ER happened, but also 3 swinging Ks
3	Pablo López	MIN		SDP	R	x	x	x	Easier to survive 4 BB when you allow just 2 H; love the 17 swinging strikes
4	Justin Verlander	NYM	at	CIN	R	x	x	x	Vintage Verlander looked great on Wednesday evening
5	Cristian Javier	HOU	at	LAA	R	x	x	x	Heating up with 35 Ks in his last 4 starts
6	Justin Steele	CHC		STL	L	x	x	x	Not his best, hardly his worst — good enough for his 6th W of the yr
7	Zack Wheeler	PHI		TOR	R	x	x	x	1st time reaching 7 IP this yr, excellent start
8	Kevin Gausman	TOR	at	PHI	R	x	x	x	Bounced back from his 2nd dud of the yr
9	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET	at	CLE	L	x	x	x	3rd time going 7+ w/0 ER in his L4, just 1 ER in that other start
10	Lance Lynn	CHW	at	KCR	R	x	x	x	OK, these HRs just aren’t subsiding w/2 more Wednesday; I’m still riding the 2-step next wk, but it’s cut time if he falters
11	Seth Lugo	SDP	at	MIN	R	x	x	x	Probably still more upper-3s/low-4s ERA kinda guy, especially w/that WHIP (1.29)
12	Josiah Gray	WSN	at	SFG	R	x	x	x	Withstood tying his season-high of 4 BB, let’s hope it’s a blip & not a return of problematic control
13	Peyton Battenfield	CLE		DET	R	x	x	x	Was hoping he’d keep rolling after the MIN gem, but this wasn’t great
14	Jordan Montgomery	STL	at	CHC	L	x	x	x	2nd dud of the yr — 2 HR, just 4 swinging strikes; still starting for next wk’s 2-step
15	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI		MIA	R	x	x	x	Wasn’t great but no regrets starting him (6 IP/4 ER/6 K)
16	Hunter Greene	CIN		NYM	R		x	x	Survived a HR and 4 BB for a pretty good outing
17	Griffin Canning	LAA		HOU	R		x	x	Another guy done in by OBI (One Bad Inning): 4 1B (incl. 1 infield), 2 BB, and a HBP led to 4 runs
18	Wade Miley	MIL		LAD	L			x	There was big risk if you took this chance & it flopped thanks in part to 3 HRs
19	Dane Dunning	TEX	at	SEA	R			x	Really nice outing here included a 17% SwStr and 5 Ks in 6 IP
20	Jhony Brito	NYY		OAK	R			x	Couldn’t really leverage the easy matchup w/just 4.3 IP
21	Antonio Senzatela	COL	at	PIT	R			x	Left early with forearm tightness
22	Brayan Bello	BOS	at	ATL	R			x	Best start of the season (6 IP/2 ER) and now 4 straight w/3 or fewer ER
23	Rich Hill	PIT		COL	L			x	First start in 6 where he didn’t go at least 5 IP
24	Yonny Chirinos	TBR	at	BAL	R			x	Another good ERA (5 IP/2 ER) w/disastrous skills (4 BB, 1 K)
25	Sean Manaea	SFG		WSN	L				Saved by 4 UER and it was still disaster (8 R in 2.7 IP)
26	Dean Kremer	BAL		TBR	R				Dropped a hot 6 scoreless, but who was going to trust him there??
27	Edward Cabrera	MIA	at	ARI	R				Needn’t be on a roster anywhere right now
28	Kyle Muller	OAK	at	NYY	L				Blasted again w/a 3-run HR from Bader leading to a 4-run 1st
29	Jared Shuster	ATL		BOS	L				They went w/a bullpen game instead
30	Brad Keller	KCR		CHW	R				Just 1 ER is good, of course, but 4 BB & 4 Ks

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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Hunter_Hicksmember

11 months ago

Paul — First off, appreciate these consistent posts. Love going through these each morning. Quick question, and the answer will obviously vary pitcher to pitcher, but trying to understand your reasoning: A lot of your notes pertain to recent outings, do you think those results are due to fundamental changes or simply they haven’t reached an adequate sample size? I.e., Bailey Ober limiting HR’s. He has a 26 GB% and is still projected around 1.4 HR/9 ROS. Has he made strides or is he facing impending regression?

Thanks again for all that you do!