Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 10th, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!

Coffee: I know you like MLB The Show. Have you ever given Super Mega Baseball a try? Incredible game. SMB4 comes out in just a few weeks.

Paul Sporer: I looooove SMB!!! Really got into the last version, will definitely scoop this. Not sure I have a ton of time to balance all 3 games (add OOTP in there), but I’ll definitely have ’em all

Greg: Bryce Miller is a top ____ start over the rest of the season.

Paul Sporer: 60

Paul Sporer: Solid chance to be better, but that gives the rookie some wiggle room

Sabey Sabes: What should I make of Jake Cronenworth? Advanced numbers look fine. Multiple positions are nice. But doesn’t feel good.

Paul Sporer: Yeah, there hasn’t enough fantasy juice (HR/SB) which makes him tough in anything shallower than a 15-team. Not cutting, but maybe reserving at times in a 12?

Ted: Tork coming to life??

Paul Sporer: It’s looking like it and obviously the talent is there!

Bruce Live in 2023: I know we’ll see tonight, but is Lance Lynn a good buy low ? 12T mix daily roto

Paul Sporer: I think so, the core skills are still there

Kyle: Brandon Pfaadt looks bad, even the body language and demeanor on the mound. You sticking w him?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK moving on as it looks really bad. SF this wknd & at PIT next wk. I generally give guys I believe in 4-5 starts before making a decision, but given the flood of prospects coming up, if there’s someone you really like in a 10 or 12 teamer, I don’t mind cutting him

Mr Red: What are your thoughts on Cease? Buy low candidate or damaged?
I was offered Cease for Miguel Bleis, Nootbarr and Josiah Gray in my dynasty league. Idk what to do

Paul Sporer: I don’t think I’d do it. Cease is volatile bc he has 40-grade command (at best). Throw in some severe BABIP regression from last yr and the BB start stinging a lotttt more. Tough part is that I don’t see it as a super actionable. I’m still starting him despite the tough results thus far bc I kinda signed up for this when I drafted Cease

Adbert’s Cousin: Can my cousin become closer or will ML Jr. keep rocking?

Paul Sporer: With Fulmer on some fantasy rosters, I’m still holding out hope for him, but I’m a big Adbert fan and wouldn’t be mad if he took over the role. Right now it’s up in the air, so Alzolay is a worthy gamble if you’re chasing SVs in deep lgs

Pray for Me: I’ve lost Springs, Fried, Wright and Alvarado to injury…and Taj to Tampa Rayin.

Paul Sporer: Mannnnn that is rough! The only silver lining is that there’s been a lot of premium pitching coming onto wires so far so hopefully you’ve pulled a couple to replace your losses

Squirrels: I have Josh Lowe on my team as utility, should i replace him with free agent Nolan Arenado?

Paul Sporer: You should get Arenado, but surely you have someone else to cut? General PSA: please include league type & team count for better answers and like this question did, please include the cut if you have a pickup question. If Lowe is truly your worst player, then yeah, I’d cut him to pick up Arenado

Taj Bradley: When will I be “5 days rest” ready?

Paul Sporer: Wish I knew, really want him back for my Main Event team

Armadillofury: Are the rule changes leading to more pitcher injuries this season?

Paul Sporer: Not sure we can really say definitively one way or the other. I haven’t seen any studies on it (not that they’d be useful this early anyway)

Matt: Who gets more PAs at 3B ROS: Jose Miranda or Royce Lewis?

Paul Sporer: I’d say Royce if he can stay healthy, but that’s obviously been his biggest challenge

Camrin: I picked up Eric Haase when Travis d’Arnaud got injured. Travis d’Arnaud is coming back, but Eric Haase is starting his hot streak. Who should I stick with?

Paul Sporer: A bit of a coinflip, might just lean TdA because he’s on the better team so his R/RBI should be better — https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0…

What Is Happening?: I’m getting lit up weekly by guys who were not on anyone’s radar coming into the season. Is the ball juiced? Meanwhile, established guys forgot they were major leaguers.

Paul Sporer: Yeah we’re seeing a good number of bomb out starts and it’s been rough. Wouldn’t be surprised if the ball is juicier than last yr at all

Pedro: Have to cut one of the following in an AL only 5×5:  Laureano, Moncada, Siri.  Thanks in advance.

Paul Sporer: (sorry got a couple work calls b2b)

Paul Sporer: It’s Moncada for me. He just doesn’t have the fantasy juice the other 2 do w/the SBs

Taj Bradley: Two bad AAA starts means you should:  A.) Drop me.  B.) Hang onto me.

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely holding

Power Or Balance: More likely… Jorge Soler 40 hrs or Suwinski 20hr + 20 stls?

Paul Sporer: Soler has done it before, but I’d still give Suwinski the edge there. He’s now playing daily, even vLH

Jon: James Paxton makes his 1st start on Friday, are we interested? I haven’t been able to find any reports on how hard he was throwing in his rehab

Paul Sporer: I am interested in theory, but I’m gonna wait & see so if he gets scooped immediately, I’m OK w/missing out

Eric: Is Jose Abreu just totally done?  Hold, drop, or try to trade for nickels on the dollar?

Paul Sporer: Depends on lg size & who you’re getting. I’m OK cutting in 12s and lower, but probably still holding in deeper lgs right now

Fat Tub of Goo: Who would you replace Jose Abreu with between Lamonte Wade, Naylor or Rizzo ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’d definitely take Wade over him and not averse to either of the other 2, either. Good group to make an Abreu move on

Paul Sporer: (brb–doggy pee break)

schlub: Worth moving on from Brendan Donovan?

Paul Sporer: Shallow formats, sure, but he’s been fine for deeper lgs. A 16 HR/10 SB pace is just fine

RD: After another disastrous outing from Pfaadt, are you ok cutting him for any of M. Miller (pending his injury news), German, or Heaney… or should I just hold and see if he figures it out?

Paul Sporer: Can get behind Heaney with at OAK/v. COL in his next 2. Meh on German with TB, at TOR, at CIN. And Miller even w/out the injury news just has zero win potential & I’m not sure his ratios will be good enough to make it worth it as this seems like a 12-team lg given who’s available

Guest: Hey Paul, thanks for all the content. I need to pickup a corner infielder in a 10 man 6 x 6 h2h league. H R HR RBI SB AVG OPS. Christian Walker, Rowdy Tellez, Josh Jung?

Paul Sporer: Not a ton of separation in that group. I’d lean Walker, but I’d probably break down their upcoming schedules to see if there’s an edge there. In 10-teamers, you can play hot hands and use schedules to try & gain an edge when he waiver is filled w/similarly skilled free agents

Johnny5Alive: Schmitt or Morel in NL only league – Morel has bigger upside and downside, so I wonder if he sticks around long enough? But schmitt is kind of like meh?

Paul Sporer: Definitely Morel. Yes he has plenty of downside w/his swing & miss, but his fantasy juice is SO much more plentiful & worth going for

Pete: Hi Paul, who do you have most faith in ROS – Bibee, Pfaadt, Stone, or Jameson?

Paul Sporer: Bibee for sure

PitchersGonPitch: Mitch Keller or Zach Eflin ROS?

Paul Sporer: Eflin for me. The 2 probably are that far apart on total skills package, so gimme the team context and that heavily favors Eflin

Matt: Amed Rosario is extremely frustrating–ok cutting bait in a 12 team mixed? Would probably cut for Baty or Luis Garcia so the options aren’t great

Paul Sporer: If you’re OK losing the SBs, then I don’t mind making a move. I really like Baty and believe in his bat so I can make that move

Scooby dooby doo: The Mets closer in august is

Paul Sporer: Not currently on their team

Robbing Peter: Is Naylor a drop in 10 or 12 team leagues? Can’t help but look at the wOBA/xwOBA gap and think it’s going to work out by summer time but it’s bad right now

Paul Sporer: Can’t imagine a .209 BABIP or 8% HR/FB hold, though. Can cut in leagues that shallow, but I’m not out on him overall

Andy Ibanez: Is Andy Ibanez a thing? Him or Mike Massey as AL only bench bat?

Paul Sporer: Enough of a thing for AL Only consideration, yeah. Loved Massey coming into the season, but we just haven’t seen enough to keep running him out there right now. I’d be OK w/the move

Stephanie: Is Giolito back? I saw 97 on the gun last night?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I mean outside the demolition, he’s been back all year!

Paul Bearer: Do you agree that Louie Varland has been unlucky, has great underlying stats, is handsome and kind, has been known to help old ladies cross the street?

Louis V: I like the talent for the Vuitton Don (Louis V(arland)) but am worried about the next matchups. Assume he’s a team streamer, though.

Paul Sporer: Big Varland fan. Picking him up anywhere he’s still available!

Lorenzen Llamas: I know there are no K’s, but I’m sort of digging Lorenzen for my ratios. His stuff+ numbers are good too. Team streamer in AL Only?

Paul Sporer: Yeah for AL Only, I can’t imagine there’s a ton on the wire so someone showing some flashes & putting together back to back gems is worth it. Would love to see a little K uptick to get excited about, but still in for AL Only

Appreciation: Thanks for your time with these questions. Gotta love baseball season!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much!

Re: Injuries: Regarding injuries to pitcher’s specifically, I watch for velocity declines; I’m also leery of sudden spikes. Is there anything you do to avoid injury risk when evaluating players?

Paul Sporer: No, if you’re playing, you’re at risk for injury. You can mitigate some of the risk by avoiding guys with deep injury histories, but can never fully get away from injuries. The safe health player is pure myth

Don Jon Olerud: Are you worried about Seiya at all? He’s been killing me in my H2H points league.

Paul Sporer: No, not really. Still not even 100 PA for him just yet… giving him another few wks for sure

aaron: Batys underlying metrics look good but the counting stats arent there. do you expect that to change any time this season?

Paul Sporer: Only 65 PA for him and the Mets offense has been in a bit of a malaise. I suspect he & the Mets will be fine!

Siri: Drop Detmers for Varland?

Paul Sporer: No, I can’t do that. Detmers is better than his 5.10 ERA. Gotta be someone worse to cut

Hunter Greene: Would you keep me on the bench me given the risks (home park, high WHIP, Verlander opposing)?

Paul Sporer: Probably paid too high a price for him to be a half pitcher if you’re going to avoid home starts. We knew the risks coming in. Too much upside for me to sit. I totally get the risk you outline, but I signed up for it w/Greene

Salty: Joked about Baez’s HR output in your chat last week, and he proceeded to homer off of J Mont and cost me H2H ERA!  I take back everything I said, Javy B is a great hitter (especially against my pitching)…

Paul Sporer: He’s been rolling since the benching. Hinch handled it well & Baez responded well both in his words & actions

Paul Sporer: I know the new rules ads w/the players get played a ton, but a couple of em really make me laugh including Tim Anderson & Blake Snell’s. “Maybe you should hold onto your hat” loool

Paul Sporer: Nestor & Trevino are good, too

Sean: When Bader is healthy, is he a top 30 OF? Would you drop Baty or Jose Abreu for him?

Paul Sporer: He’s in that range. I looove Bader. It’s just that he’s never healthy. I’d be OK w/the Abreu drop for him

Keith Hernandez’ cat: Thx for the chat, Sr. Paulo. Thx for the daily SP column!

Paul Sporer: You’re quite welcome!

Johnny5Alive: You buying low on Arenado? Hard to interpret yesterdays article whether it was more like “this is what he is” or “he maybe isnt last year great but he is still very good”

Paul Sporer: Yeah I am. There’s always an established superstar or 3 each yr that get off to a brutal start like this but then eventually find their level. Sometimes they get alll the way back & you can even tell they started slowly and others hit like themselves for 4 or so months, but maybe were too bad in the first 6-8 wks to completely erase the impact in terms of their bottom line

Sim: JJ Bleday looks like a possible breakout candidate with the reduced whiff %. you buying?

Paul Sporer: Long-time Bleday backer and been hoping he could cut into the Ks. So far he has, so I’m rolling with him! If the Ks start shooting back up, we can adjust. For now, 12s and deeper pickup (5 OF)

Meh: Sell or hold on Jarren Duran in a 5×5 keeper leagues

Paul Sporer: Ride the wave. Not sure it’s a true breakout over a hot streak, but worth seeing where it goes

Bomo: Should I trade Anthony Rizzo for Nick Lodolo.

Paul Sporer: That seems fine w/out knowing any league info

B’ryce Hammer: Dylan Cease comes standard with a bottle of antacids on draft day. It’s just part of who he is. He’ll go on a heater soon..

Paul Sporer: Totally agree

Tom: Are you starting Brady Singer tomorrow against the White Sox?

Paul Sporer: I am not

troke: Is Lauer droppable at this point in a deep NL-only, or is these recent shellackings a blip?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s back to 2018-19 Lauer, but that’s probably still viable in NLs

Bomo: Should I trade Rizzo for Lodolo? 10 team league, 5×5 + OPS and Q

Paul Sporer: Oh crap, you added context in a later msg! Yes, I’m fine w/this

GotG: Bibee’s last start was less than thrilling.  Any concern or just a blip? Any positives?

Paul Sporer: Not worried, everyone gets got at times, sometimes it’s v. beatable teams, too

Paul Sporer: Tigers win!

Andres Gimenez: I want him out of my life. Is he an immediate drop in 12 team H2H once I get Altuve back?

Paul Sporer: You have such a good replacement that you caaannn when Altuve returns, but I’m probably waiting out the rest of this month before making a move on him anywhere. 2 months isn’t some magic time, but Memorial Day is kinda my first big cutoff for top 10 rounds guys to see where they’re at

Guest: Hi Paul – M. Vargas or Josh Lowe ROS in 12 team H2H league?

Paul Sporer: Lowe’s doing much more fantasy wise right now, rolling with him

Kevin: when streaming bats in a shallow league, what’s most important to you – pitcher matchup, platoon splits, or ballpark?

Paul Sporer: Pitching matchups and ballparks go under schedule, but the pitchers will have a bigger effect on how good the matchups are. Platoons get a liiittle consideration and mostly as they pertain to the player’s chances of being in the lineup. Actual platoon splits aren’t terribly stable overall.

Brad: Is Winker toast?  He’s been bad for over a year but the projections like him for a 120 wRC+.  Is he rosterable in a DEEP dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I didn’t mind taking a shot on him w/the lowered price, but he just has NO pop right now. I’m not against moving on from him anywhere

B’ryce Hammer: Noot or Kellenic ROS in Points league?

Paul Sporer: Noot for me

Guest: Varland or Ashcraft ROS?

Paul Sporer: Lean Varland

Sean: Wondering why youre open to cutting Abreu then before Memorial day? Not much hope for a turn around?

Paul Sporer: Well that particular question was mostly bc of who was available. 1B is deep. Plus this is carryover from last yr’s power outage. Not everyone is created equally, there’s no hard & fast rules.

Kate: If the Rangers continue to stick in the playoff hunt, do you think Will Smith gets replaced as closer by a better RP at the deadline?

Paul Sporer: Impossible to say, tbh. I think Bochy really likes him, though

Lexgrassman: With Brantley coming back soon I’m going to have to decide between keeping him or Juan Yepez in a 16 team dynasty league. Which direction would you go for 2023? Beyond 2023?

Paul Sporer: Beyond 2023 is easily Yepez on age alone, but this yr, Yepez just isn’t playing right now

Kate: How hopeful are you for a Singer turnaround?  I was pretty meh on him in the offseason, but held him in a dynasty league as I couldn’t find a deal I liked.

Paul Sporer: I mean he’s better than this, but I’m only expecting the SIERA at best (4.40). It’s looking like 2022 was just the best of what his skills offer, not a level jump in production.

Bobby Miller: Will I come up before stone gets called up again?

Paul Sporer: I have no idea. No one knows call up questions w/out inside info… everything else is PURE guess

Sean: Bibee’s SwStr doesnt concern you?

Paul Sporer: It’s been 3 starts so the one 7% gm is really hampering him (10% & 12% in the others). That said, his rate is enough for the 23-24% K rate he’s generating right now, too. Bottom line is that he’s not set in stone at all right now. I’m starting him everywhere for a while to get a sample and see what we’ve got. Upside is rich!

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Thinking of dropping Taj for Bello in a redraft…thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Maaannn, that’s a tough one. I know in redrafts we need guys who are playing and Bello’s skills look solid since his debut (well, except the HRs). You can. I’d lean no, but not so fervently that I’d blast you for doing it if you really believe in Bello

Mike: Good time to sell high on Eovaldi? Or do you think he can be a top 40 SP?

Paul Sporer: If you can sell high, I’m cool with it. That said, I believe in his talent, it’s just that his health issues have been so severe throughout his career that it’s hard to see him last all year

Paul Sporer: Went a bit longer since I had few unexpected interruptions, but we’re gonna have to wrap it up here!

Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!