Starting Pitcher Chart – May 16th

May 16, 2023

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Tuesday, May 16th Starter Notes

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	NOTE
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD		MIN	L	x	x	x	It’s such a treat watching him every 5th day
2	Justin Verlander	NYM	at	TBR	R	x	x	x	Not a super fun matchup to kick off the 2-step, but gets CLE on the wknd
3	Kevin Gausman	TOR		NYY	R	x	x	x	Skills are some of the best around but that pesky BABIP (.350) continues to wreak havoc
4	Justin Steele	CHC	at	HOU	L	x	x	x	It’s more of a “run-hot” situation than transformation into breakout w/an 82% LOB and .259 BABIP propping him up
5	Cristian Javier	HOU		CHC	R	x	x	x	Toting a 37% K rate in his L4 starts
6	Zack Wheeler	PHI	at	SFG	R	x	x	x	His 2.59 FIP suggests better days are ahead and they will likely come via improving that 65% LOB rate
7	Luis Castillo	SEA	at	BOS	R	x	x	x	Auto-Start, even on the road against a tough offense for righties
8	Shane Bieber	CLE	at	CHW	R	x	x	x	17% SwStr rate last time out was a season-high, could the Ks start creeping back upward?
9	Bailey Ober	MIN	at	LAD	R	x	x	x	Ober has reached Auto-Start status for me
10	Jesús Luzardo	MIA		WSN	L	x	x	x	Might be the kind of guy who can break through the Nats unwillingness to K (15% is lowest in MLB)
11	Josiah Gray	WSN	at	MIA	R	x	x	x	He has 1 directive: limit the HRs and good starts will often follow
12	Jordan Montgomery	STL		MIL	L	x	x	x	Great rebound opportunity after the 6 ER dud last time out
13	Seth Lugo	SDP		KCR	R	x	x	x	I wish he was missing more bats as his 7% SwStr doesn’t even really support his 22% K rate which isn’t even that great in the first place
14	Lance Lynn	CHW		CLE	R		x	x	This is it for me — if we don’t see some consistency in a CLE/KC 2-step, then there’s no real reason to hold
15	Dane Dunning	TEX		ATL	R		x	x	Returning to rotation after a solid relief stint; I like him despite the modest K-BB… picking up even if I’m not starting here w/at PIT, at BAL on tap next wk
16	Alex Cobb	SFG		PHI	R		x	x	Living off an insane 90% LOB rate as his ERA won’t stay that low w/such a high WHIP (relative to that ERA)
17	Michael Lorenzen	DET		PIT	R			x	B2B 7 IP/1 ER outings garnered some attention but the 4 K/2 BB totals in the starts are remarkably bad
18	Luis L. Ortiz	PIT	at	DET	R			x	Electric arm with some major upside, but plentyyyy of downside
19	Yonny Chirinos	TBR	at	NYM	R			x	Putting up results despite his brutal K-BB; it will improve but his 15% career mark isn’t that great & yet I remain intrigued
20	Wade Miley	MIL	at	STL	L			x	Came up w/a dud in LA, but he’s still a viable stream consideration in deeper lgs
21	Domingo Germán	NYY	at	TOR	R				I couldn’t start the HR-prone arm at TOR and at CIN this wk
22	Brady Singer	KCR	at	SDP	R				One strong start isn’t enough to get back on board just yet
23	Nick Pivetta	BOS		SEA	R				Are his days in the rotation numbered with Paxton back?
24	Chase Silseth	LAA	at	BAL	R				I like the arm, but probably in more of a wait-and-see mode w/him; if he throws a gem, his price will soar
25	Dean Kremer	BAL		LAA	R				Far too hittable to trust here
26	Tommy Henry	ARI	at	OAK	L				OK, so not EVERYONE against Oakland
27	Brandon Williamson	CIN	at	COL	L				Interesting prospect making his MLB debut, obviously not starting him in Coors
28	Kyle Muller	OAK		ARI	L				Not much to get excited about
29	Chase Anderson	COL		CIN	R				No… of course not!
30	Jared Shuster	ATL	at	TEX	L				Things haven’t gone well for the rookie

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Tuesday, May 16th Starter Stats

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	THR	10	12	15+	IP	ERA	WHIP	K-BB	OPP L30 wOBA	wOBA RK
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD		MIN	L	x	x	x	49.2	2.36	0.95	24%	0.276	28th
2	Justin Verlander	NYM	at	TBR	R	x	x	x	12	2.25	0.83	21%	0.349	4th
3	Kevin Gausman	TOR		NYY	R	x	x	x	48	3.38	1.10	31%	0.296	24th
4	Justin Steele	CHC	at	HOU	L	x	x	x	49.1	1.82	1.03	13%	0.304	22nd
5	Cristian Javier	HOU		CHC	R	x	x	x	46.2	3.47	1.01	24%	0.334	6th
6	Zack Wheeler	PHI	at	SFG	R	x	x	x	45	3.80	1.13	22%	0.326	9th
7	Luis Castillo	SEA	at	BOS	R	x	x	x	46.2	2.70	0.99	23%	0.363	1st
8	Shane Bieber	CLE	at	CHW	R	x	x	x	51.2	2.61	1.10	13%	0.285	26th
9	Bailey Ober	MIN	at	LAD	R	x	x	x	24.1	1.85	0.90	17%	0.331	8th
10	Jesús Luzardo	MIA		WSN	L	x	x	x	45.1	3.38	1.41	16%	0.345	8th
11	Josiah Gray	WSN	at	MIA	R	x	x	x	45.2	2.96	1.34	11%	0.284	27th
12	Jordan Montgomery	STL		MIL	L	x	x	x	46	4.11	1.30	15%	0.265	30th
13	Seth Lugo	SDP		KCR	R	x	x	x	39.2	3.18	1.29	16%	0.304	19th
14	Lance Lynn	CHW		CLE	R		x	x	44.1	7.51	1.60	18%	0.281	29th
15	Dane Dunning	TEX		ATL	R		x	x	31.1	1.72	0.86	10%	0.317	12th
16	Alex Cobb	SFG		PHI	R		x	x	47.2	1.70	1.24	17%	0.334	7th
17	Michael Lorenzen	DET		PIT	R			x	28	4.18	1.21	10%	0.308	17th
18	Luis L. Ortiz	PIT	at	DET	R			x	5	3.60	1.60	0%	0.283	28th
19	Yonny Chirinos	TBR	at	NYM	R			x	24.1	2.22	0.99	-1%	0.324	10th
20	Wade Miley	MIL	at	STL	L			x	40	3.60	1.13	10%	0.308	19th
21	Domingo Germán	NYY	at	TOR	R				45	4.00	0.96	18%	0.319	13th
22	Brady Singer	KCR	at	SDP	R				39.2	7.71	1.54	13%	0.293	25th
23	Nick Pivetta	BOS		SEA	R				34.2	6.23	1.50	13%	0.303	22nd
24	Chase Silseth	LAA	at	BAL	R				8.1	3.24	1.20	0%	0.308	16th
25	Dean Kremer	BAL		LAA	R				41.2	4.97	1.46	11%	0.335	5th
26	Tommy Henry	ARI	at	OAK	L				22.1	4.43	1.39	0%	0.344	9th
27	Brandon Williamson	CIN	at	COL	L				#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	0.303	23rd
28	Kyle Muller	OAK		ARI	L				38	7.34	1.95	3%	0.311	18th
29	Chase Anderson	COL		CIN	R				5	0.00	0.60	6%	0.304	20th
30	Jared Shuster	ATL	at	TEX	L				8.2	8.31	2.42	-9%	0.376	3rd

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

Monday, May 15th Starter Review

RK	PITCHER	TM		OPP	T	10	12	15	NOTE
1	Shohei Ohtani	LAA	at	BAL	R	x	x	x	3 HRs stung, but he made it 7 IP and nabbed a W to save the start
2	Freddy Peralta	MIL	at	STL	R	x	x	x	StL offense exploded and ran up 5 BB, saddling him w/his 2nd dud start of the yr
3	Pablo López	MIN	at	LAD	R	x	x	x	Longball ate him up — 3 of em ended his night early with fewer than 5 IP complete
4	Framber Valdez	HOU		CHC	L	x	x	x	Gave us 8 Ks to offset the damage of the 4 IP/4 ER dud
5	George Kirby	SEA	at	BOS	R	x	x	x	Tremendous outing; leveraged a meager 8 swinging strikes into 6 Ks
6	Merrill Kelly 켈리	ARI	at	OAK	R	x	x	x	Took full advantage of the cushy matchup setting up for a huge wk if he stand strong at PIT
7	Alex Wood	SFG		PHI	L	x	x	x	Not a bad return to the rotation after recently returning from the IL
8	Tanner Houck	BOS		SEA	R		x	x	Hoping for better but within the range of outcomes which is why I was OK sitting him (solid 5 K/1 BB though)
9	Jameson Taillon	CHC	at	HOU	R		x	x	Was running a solid 20% K-BB in his first 5 starts, but just didn’t have it
10	Grayson Rodriguez	BAL		LAA	R		x	x	Gonna be really tough to save the wk w/a trip to TOR coming up this wknd; be very careful w/LAA
11	Charlie Morton	ATL	at	TEX	R		x	x	First run-free outing of the year was a beaut: 6.7 IP/0 ER/10 K/W
12	Hunter Greene	CIN	at	COL	R			x	You knew what you were getting into here (9 H, 2 HR did him in)
13	Alek Manoah	TOR		NYY	R			x	I think we’re in the cut zone at this point, where do you feel confident starting him at this juncture?
14	Patrick Corbin	WSN		NYM	L			x	Worked around some traffic and only 1 K, but 6 IP/2 ER in the books w/the easier of his 2-step this wknd (DET)
15	Michael Wacha	SDP		KCR	R			x	Absolutely pieced up the Royals which isn’t a huge opponent, but he’s a standard streamer dropping double-digit punchies!
16	David Peterson	NYM	at	WSN	L			x	Far too hittable to maximize his 18% K-BB rate
17	Bailey Falter	PHI	at	SFG	L				Got an opener which is cool, but got saved by an error w/6 uneared runs; still just 2 Ks
18	Jack Flaherty	STL		MIL	R				Where did that come from? 7 shutout IP w/10 Ks!!
19	Noah Syndergaard	LAD		MIN	R				He was fine in an abbreviated outing (59 pitches) including 5 Ks and 0 BB
20	Connor Seabold	COL		CIN	R				He definitely pitched baseballs tonight
21	Jhony Brito	NYY	at	TOR	R				Giving an opener could be an avenue to some potential streaming value
22	Brad Keller	KCR	at	SDP	R				8 BB… EIGHT!
23	Cody Bradford	TEX		ATL	R				Dunning was pushed back and Bradford got hit around a good bit (5 IP/6 ER)
24	Drew Rucinski 루친스키	OAK		ARI	R				Not sure how much longer he will be in the rotation

Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

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David Klein

11 months ago

Whoever told Peterson to throw his slider in the zone and throw his fastball so much is a fool. Peterson succeeded last year by getting chases on his slider and an insane whiff rate on it. This year well you know.

idliamin

Reply to David Klein

Did someone tell him that? Because I agree: that’s really bad advice. Peterson doesn’t have the stuff to live in the zone; he HAS to induce chases with his slider and changeup. I also wonder if developing a cutter would help him (particularly against righties).