Starting Pitcher Chart – May 15th

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Monday Morning Notes:

  • Cody Bradford is in for TEX with Dunning moving to Tuesday. The 25-year-old lefty has put up good numbers in his pro career with a 21% K-BB in 255 IP, though projects as more of a backend crafty lefty. I’m not picking up right away anyway as I’m not even sure this is more than a spot start.
  • Wood is returning from the IL as many commenters pointed out & I should’ve keyed in on that more as it could limit his IP in this outing especially. I’m still starting him in weekly lgs to get the full 2-step (MIA this wknd), but I’m totally fine passing in daily moves leagues as this could be a 3-4 IP outing.

Monday, May 15th Starter Notes
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ NOTE
1 Shohei Ohtani LAA at BAL R x x x SwStr rate up to 17% over his last 5 starts, 5 HRs in that time has kept it from being elite (4.33 ERA, 2.63 xFIP)
2 Freddy Peralta MIL at STL R x x x Velo is up nearly 2 mph and he’s rolling right now
3 Pablo López MIN at LAD R x x x He’s been great… couple duds, but rebounded w/3 ER in his next 2 starts combined
4 Framber Valdez HOU CHC L x x x Peaking right now as the shift alterations have barely touched his hit rates (+5 pts in AVG last yr to .227)
5 George Kirby SEA at BOS R x x x Hard to argue with the ratios even as the K rate lags (20%) thanks to a modest 9% SwStr rate
6 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI at OAK R x x x Might be getting past his early BB rate issues w/a 4% in his L3 after a 16% mark in his first 5
7 Alex Wood SFG PHI L x x x Stats are from 11 IP so I’m not freaking out about the WHIP yet
8 Tanner Houck BOS SEA R x x Not a set and forget especially since they’re running a 6 so this isn’t a 2-step
9 Dane Dunning TEX ATL R x x Returning to rotation after a solid relief stint; I like him despite the modest K-BB… picking up even if I’m not starting here w/at PIT, at BAL on tap next wk
10 Jameson Taillon CHC at HOU R x x It’s only 20 IP, but I’m putting some faith in 21% K-BB and HOU’s weak offense vRH
11 Grayson Rodriguez BAL LAA R x x 3 gems, a mediocre outing, and 3 duds… it’s a tough 2-step w/LAA and at TOR on the docket, can sit w/out cutting in a shallow lg
12 Charlie Morton ATL at TEX R x x The ERA is going up if he doesn’t pull that WHIP down and I’m only starting in weekly where I have to take this to get the 2-step (v. SEA this wknd)
13 Hunter Greene CIN at COL R x He gets NYY visiting on the weekend so this isn’t a great setup but I’m probably rolling w/him in deeper weekly lgs & betting on the raw talent
14 Alek Manoah TOR NYY R x This is a turning pt for Manoah: NYY/BAL both at home, I understand if you’re moving on, but I’m giving him these 2 to show something before at least benching & maybe cutting in some spots
15 Patrick Corbin WSN NYM L x GOOD: 3.56 ERA, 1.09 WHIP in L5 | BAD: 17% K, 9% SwStr, .265 BABIP, 66% LOB — I know DET is lurking on the wknd, but they’ve been hitting vL since that TBR series
16 Michael Wacha SDP KCR R x Running hot of late but with a 9% K-BB… this is a toss-up deep lg stream w/KC heating up a little of late
17 David Peterson NYM at WSN L x HRs are the quickest way to tank an ERA and his 2.1 HR is crushing him, should come down but he’s had issues before (1.5 HR for 67 IP in ’21)
18 Bailey Falter PHI at SFG L Just far too hittable to trust anywhere right now
19 Jack Flaherty STL MIL R I can’t envision starting him anywhere right now
20 Noah Syndergaard LAD MIN R OK, the Dodgers can’t fix everyone
21 Connor Seabold COL CIN R No
22 Jhony Brito NYY at TOR R Should be on the wire in the most lgs even w/the 2-step (at CIN on the wknd)
23 Brad Keller KCR at SDP R That K-BB isn’t a typo
24 Drew Rucinski 루친스키 OAK ARI R Can’t imagine he will remain in this rotation too much longer unless things change
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

Monday, May 15th Starter Stats
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB OPP L30 wOBA wOBA RK
1 Shohei Ohtani LAA at BAL R x x x 46 2.74 0.91 25% 0.308 16th
2 Freddy Peralta MIL at STL R x x x 40.2 3.32 1.20 19% 0.323 11th
3 Pablo López MIN at LAD R x x x 49.1 3.47 1.07 24% 0.331 8th
4 Framber Valdez HOU CHC L x x x 53 2.38 1.04 22% 0.354 6th
5 George Kirby SEA at BOS R x x x 44.2 2.62 0.96 18% 0.363 1st
6 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI at OAK R x x x 45.1 3.18 1.15 14% 0.302 21st
7 Alex Wood SFG PHI L x x x 11 2.45 1.64 9% 0.294 26th
8 Tanner Houck BOS SEA R x x 37.2 5.26 1.33 12% 0.303 22nd
9 Dane Dunning TEX ATL R x x 31.1 1.72 0.86 10% 0.317 12th
10 Jameson Taillon CHC at HOU R x x 19.2 6.41 1.47 21% 0.277 30th
11 Grayson Rodriguez BAL LAA R x x 33.2 5.08 1.54 18% 0.335 5th
12 Charlie Morton ATL at TEX R x x 40.2 3.32 1.40 12% 0.342 3rd
13 Hunter Greene CIN at COL R x 39 3.69 1.49 20% 0.306 18th
14 Alek Manoah TOR NYY R x 41 4.83 1.66 4% 0.296 24th
15 Patrick Corbin WSN NYM L x 44.1 4.87 1.42 11% 0.296 25th
16 Michael Wacha SDP KCR R x 37.1 4.82 1.34 11% 0.304 19th
17 David Peterson NYM at WSN L x 34 7.68 1.68 18% 0.345 8th
18 Bailey Falter PHI at SFG L 36 5.75 1.39 12% 0.308 20th
19 Jack Flaherty STL MIL R 39.1 6.18 1.73 7% 0.316 14th
20 Noah Syndergaard LAD MIN R 32.1 6.12 1.42 11% 0.313 15th
21 Connor Seabold COL CIN R 23.2 4.56 1.44 10% 0.304 20th
22 Jhony Brito NYY at TOR R 31 5.81 1.48 6% 0.319 13th
23 Brad Keller KCR at SDP R 39.2 4.31 1.76 -2% 0.293 25th
24 Drew Rucinski 루친스키 OAK ARI R 14.1 8.16 2.09 -4% 0.360 2nd
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

4 Comments
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Alfio Lentinimember
11 months ago

Love Alex Wood, but he’s just back from IR, etc. Thinking of sitting him on Monday against Phillies, and activating him after that. Your take?

Greg Simonsmember
11 months ago
Reply to  Alfio Lentini

I’m concerned about how many innings Wood will pitch Monday and also this weekend to a lesser extent. Can’t get a win if he doesn’t go 5 IP.