Starting Pitcher Chart – May 15th
by Paul Sporer
May 15, 2023
Daily SP Chart archive
The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.
Monday Morning Notes:
- Cody Bradford is in for TEX with Dunning moving to Tuesday. The 25-year-old lefty has put up good numbers in his pro career with a 21% K-BB in 255 IP, though projects as more of a backend crafty lefty. I’m not picking up right away anyway as I’m not even sure this is more than a spot start.
- Wood is returning from the IL as many commenters pointed out & I should’ve keyed in on that more as it could limit his IP in this outing especially. I’m still starting him in weekly lgs to get the full 2-step (MIA this wknd), but I’m totally fine passing in daily moves leagues as this could be a 3-4 IP outing.
Monday, May 15th Starter Notes
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | at | BAL | R | x | x | x | SwStr rate up to 17% over his last 5 starts, 5 HRs in that time has kept it from being elite (4.33 ERA, 2.63 xFIP) |
| 2 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | at | STL | R | x | x | x | Velo is up nearly 2 mph and he’s rolling right now |
| 3 | Pablo López | MIN | at | LAD | R | x | x | x | He’s been great… couple duds, but rebounded w/3 ER in his next 2 starts combined |
| 4 | Framber Valdez | HOU | CHC | L | x | x | x | Peaking right now as the shift alterations have barely touched his hit rates (+5 pts in AVG last yr to .227) | |
| 5 | George Kirby | SEA | at | BOS | R | x | x | x | Hard to argue with the ratios even as the K rate lags (20%) thanks to a modest 9% SwStr rate |
| 6 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | at | OAK | R | x | x | x | Might be getting past his early BB rate issues w/a 4% in his L3 after a 16% mark in his first 5 |
| 7 | Alex Wood | SFG | PHI | L | x | x | x | Stats are from 11 IP so I’m not freaking out about the WHIP yet | |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | BOS | SEA | R | x | x | Not a set and forget especially since they’re running a 6 so this isn’t a 2-step | ||
| 9 | Dane Dunning | TEX | ATL | R | x | x | Returning to rotation after a solid relief stint; I like him despite the modest K-BB… picking up even if I’m not starting here w/at PIT, at BAL on tap next wk | ||
| 10 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | at | HOU | R | x | x | It’s only 20 IP, but I’m putting some faith in 21% K-BB and HOU’s weak offense vRH | |
| 11 | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | LAA | R | x | x | 3 gems, a mediocre outing, and 3 duds… it’s a tough 2-step w/LAA and at TOR on the docket, can sit w/out cutting in a shallow lg | ||
| 12 | Charlie Morton | ATL | at | TEX | R | x | x | The ERA is going up if he doesn’t pull that WHIP down and I’m only starting in weekly where I have to take this to get the 2-step (v. SEA this wknd) | |
| 13 | Hunter Greene | CIN | at | COL | R | x | He gets NYY visiting on the weekend so this isn’t a great setup but I’m probably rolling w/him in deeper weekly lgs & betting on the raw talent | ||
| 14 | Alek Manoah | TOR | NYY | R | x | This is a turning pt for Manoah: NYY/BAL both at home, I understand if you’re moving on, but I’m giving him these 2 to show something before at least benching & maybe cutting in some spots | |||
| 15 | Patrick Corbin | WSN | NYM | L | x | GOOD: 3.56 ERA, 1.09 WHIP in L5 | BAD: 17% K, 9% SwStr, .265 BABIP, 66% LOB — I know DET is lurking on the wknd, but they’ve been hitting vL since that TBR series | |||
| 16 | Michael Wacha | SDP | KCR | R | x | Running hot of late but with a 9% K-BB… this is a toss-up deep lg stream w/KC heating up a little of late | |||
| 17 | David Peterson | NYM | at | WSN | L | x | HRs are the quickest way to tank an ERA and his 2.1 HR is crushing him, should come down but he’s had issues before (1.5 HR for 67 IP in ’21) | ||
| 18 | Bailey Falter | PHI | at | SFG | L | Just far too hittable to trust anywhere right now | |||
| 19 | Jack Flaherty | STL | MIL | R | I can’t envision starting him anywhere right now | ||||
| 20 | Noah Syndergaard | LAD | MIN | R | OK, the Dodgers can’t fix everyone | ||||
| 21 | Connor Seabold | COL | CIN | R | No | ||||
| 22 | Jhony Brito | NYY | at | TOR | R | Should be on the wire in the most lgs even w/the 2-step (at CIN on the wknd) | |||
| 23 | Brad Keller | KCR | at | SDP | R | That K-BB isn’t a typo | |||
| 24 | Drew Rucinski 루친스키 | OAK | ARI | R | Can’t imagine he will remain in this rotation too much longer unless things change |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Monday, May 15th Starter Stats
| RK | PITCHER | TM | OPP | THR | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | OPP L30 wOBA | wOBA RK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | at | BAL | R | x | x | x | 46 | 2.74 | 0.91 | 25% | 0.308 | 16th |
| 2 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | at | STL | R | x | x | x | 40.2 | 3.32 | 1.20 | 19% | 0.323 | 11th |
| 3 | Pablo López | MIN | at | LAD | R | x | x | x | 49.1 | 3.47 | 1.07 | 24% | 0.331 | 8th |
| 4 | Framber Valdez | HOU | CHC | L | x | x | x | 53 | 2.38 | 1.04 | 22% | 0.354 | 6th | |
| 5 | George Kirby | SEA | at | BOS | R | x | x | x | 44.2 | 2.62 | 0.96 | 18% | 0.363 | 1st |
| 6 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | at | OAK | R | x | x | x | 45.1 | 3.18 | 1.15 | 14% | 0.302 | 21st |
| 7 | Alex Wood | SFG | PHI | L | x | x | x | 11 | 2.45 | 1.64 | 9% | 0.294 | 26th | |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | BOS | SEA | R | x | x | 37.2 | 5.26 | 1.33 | 12% | 0.303 | 22nd | ||
| 9 | Dane Dunning | TEX | ATL | R | x | x | 31.1 | 1.72 | 0.86 | 10% | 0.317 | 12th | ||
| 10 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | at | HOU | R | x | x | 19.2 | 6.41 | 1.47 | 21% | 0.277 | 30th | |
| 11 | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | LAA | R | x | x | 33.2 | 5.08 | 1.54 | 18% | 0.335 | 5th | ||
| 12 | Charlie Morton | ATL | at | TEX | R | x | x | 40.2 | 3.32 | 1.40 | 12% | 0.342 | 3rd | |
| 13 | Hunter Greene | CIN | at | COL | R | x | 39 | 3.69 | 1.49 | 20% | 0.306 | 18th | ||
| 14 | Alek Manoah | TOR | NYY | R | x | 41 | 4.83 | 1.66 | 4% | 0.296 | 24th | |||
| 15 | Patrick Corbin | WSN | NYM | L | x | 44.1 | 4.87 | 1.42 | 11% | 0.296 | 25th | |||
| 16 | Michael Wacha | SDP | KCR | R | x | 37.1 | 4.82 | 1.34 | 11% | 0.304 | 19th | |||
| 17 | David Peterson | NYM | at | WSN | L | x | 34 | 7.68 | 1.68 | 18% | 0.345 | 8th | ||
| 18 | Bailey Falter | PHI | at | SFG | L | 36 | 5.75 | 1.39 | 12% | 0.308 | 20th | |||
| 19 | Jack Flaherty | STL | MIL | R | 39.1 | 6.18 | 1.73 | 7% | 0.316 | 14th | ||||
| 20 | Noah Syndergaard | LAD | MIN | R | 32.1 | 6.12 | 1.42 | 11% | 0.313 | 15th | ||||
| 21 | Connor Seabold | COL | CIN | R | 23.2 | 4.56 | 1.44 | 10% | 0.304 | 20th | ||||
| 22 | Jhony Brito | NYY | at | TOR | R | 31 | 5.81 | 1.48 | 6% | 0.319 | 13th | |||
| 23 | Brad Keller | KCR | at | SDP | R | 39.2 | 4.31 | 1.76 | -2% | 0.293 | 25th | |||
| 24 | Drew Rucinski 루친스키 | OAK | ARI | R | 14.1 | 8.16 | 2.09 | -4% | 0.360 | 2nd |
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues
Love Alex Wood, but he’s just back from IR, etc. Thinking of sitting him on Monday against Phillies, and activating him after that. Your take?
I’m concerned about how many innings Wood will pitch Monday and also this weekend to a lesser extent. Can’t get a win if he doesn’t go 5 IP.