Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – October 27th, 2016

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, we’re gonna be on a tight hour today. Eno and I are recording the pod right after. Let’s rolllll!!

XXXV: hi

Paul Sporer: hi

Jeremy: Do you like Taijuan Walker as a Top 40 starting pitcher next year? I’ve also got Syndergaard/Quintana/Matz/Nola in a start 7 SP, 14 team, 5×5 league, so I’m considering cutting him despite his cheap price (6 points in 340 point league).

Paul Sporer: He didn’t crack my early 40. But he’s 47th so close.

Dumpster Fiers: I asked Eno as well. 16 Team Dynasty. I’m going to shop Arrieta $18. Should I package something with him and go for Kershaw $35, or target Urias $1 and Buxton $2?

Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s really interesting. I mean, if you’re competing in ’17, I think it’s the Kershaw path. If you’re eyeing the future a bit more, then obviously the two young guns are a sharp play. I think I go for Kershaw and try to win

Minty: QS/OBP deep keeper $200 cap. Rather gamble on $2Harvey or $2 Buxton?

Paul Sporer: Buxton. I’m worried about Harvey. The thoracic outlet syndrome heal rate isn’t great. Partly due to small sample of cases, but still

Choo Choo: When are we going to see your full SP rank?

Paul Sporer: Probably go a little deeper in November (top 75) and then full on ranks start coming in January

will: ketel marte post hype breakout?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, I REALLY wasn’t in on him this year. That ’15 BB rate was such an obvious fraud, IMO. Empty SBs are tough to take with so many HRs being hit now. It puts extra burden on a few other spots to really overachieve HRs

Minty: What’re you realistically hoping for from Schwarber next year?

Paul Sporer: .250-30-XX (not sure where he bats, but 85-100 RBIs)

Rasta: In a league with individual OF spots, can you get behind taking Bryant #1 next year if he has 3B, LF & RF eligibility?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I personally still go Trout, but LF is pretty scarce and he has two other positions so I can get behind him at #2. Still Trout #1 though

Asking for a friend: Buxton 2017: .260/.320/.425 ?

Paul Sporer: Possible for sure, that represents some real growth so hopefully he builds on the stunning Sept.

Choo Choo: This will be your last chat during the 2016 baseball season. Thanks for all the fun!

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out!!

Alex : Will Folty breakout this year? Last year he showed huge improvements, but do you think he puts it together into being a top 60 SP?

Paul Sporer: He certainly changed his outlook this year with a quality season. He still needs to curb the implosions, but I think there is strikeout upside lurking, too. He didn’t make my top 60 outright, but it’s possible

Naz Khan: Hey Paul. I saw the 6 round mock you did with RotoWire and was kind of surprised to see Daniel Murphy get picked 42nd overall after the amazing numbers he put up last season. What do you estimate his value to be and how much does he decline next season?

Paul Sporer: Age and relative late-bloomage of his excellence will leave him undervalued in the market. Similar to how Papi’s DH-blocking and age left him cheaper than he should’ve gone EVERY year. I think Murph is more .300 than .350, but the rest is bankable

Make WAR not Love: Vine news – sad or the saddest?

Paul Sporer: LOL, not too sad. I found Vine alright, but hardly essential

Rasta: Think Altuve starts running again next year? Hoping he was just playing through injury at the end of the season

Paul Sporer: Hmm, not sure if it was a nagging injury or the move to third in the order. he was 15-for-16 leading off, but then 12-for-21 batting third. Wonder if batting in the heart changed his decision-making leading to more caughts. Still gonna get 20-something, but we’ll have to see if 30s are gone

Minty: So if you gamble on $2 Buxton over Harvey, Buxton or $4 Conforto with Collins as his manager?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think the Conforto thing is unique to Collins. This is how lefties are treated throughout the league, espec. if they didn’t hit southpaws in the minors all that much. But to the question, it’s Buxton

zurzles: i appreciate the home run surge articles, but i wonder if they (and everyone’s approach to it, really) would be different if we acknowledge that the surge started midway through 2015?

Paul Sporer: Was it someone last chat who studied the Statcast data and found one key change: launch angle. So I’m starting to wonder if just saying it’s the juiced ball (a theory I’ve been pushing as much as anyone) is flawed and it’s actually the players learning from the Statcast data and altering their launch angles

Paul Sporer: What do the 2H ’15 HR numbers look like?

Web: Ian Happ comparison in the majors right now?

Web: Albert Almora as a starter in CF one or two years from now?

Paul Sporer: Don’t know enough about Happ so I’ll give you both your Qs at once here. I think Almora is a perfect 4th OF right now. He’ll need time (and have to improve in that time) if he’s going to become a starter, espec. on a first division team

CamdenWarehouse: Do you think that this many players have such control over their swing as to create this change in launch angles? Hitting a baseball is hard, man.

Paul Sporer: the stuff I

Paul Sporer: whoops

Paul Sporer: The stuff I’ve read suggests that’s one of the few things they can actually have some agency over

CamdenWarehouse: I’d love to read that if there are any articles you can recommend about controlling launch angle.

Paul Sporer: I don’t have em handy, it was in-season stuff and I didn’t bookmark. I imagine Mike Petriello would be a good source here. Hit him up on Twitter or peruse his MLB.com article archive

Make WAR not Love: If schwarber is cleared, do they run him out there tomorrow?

Paul Sporer: I think so. I like A-Rod’s little 3-and-3 plan: 3 ABs for Schwarbs, final 3 innings for Heyward replacing him

Dave: NL only keeper League- have glut of SSs. Story $5, Aledmys Diaz $5, Dansby Swanson $5, Brandon Crawford $10. Crawford seems the bottom of the bunch. How do you rank them?

Paul Sporer: Impressed by Swanson, but it was 145 PA. I’m not sure he’s better than Crawford already, even with the dollar difference, but I’m OK saying they’re close. Story -dropoff- Diaz, Craw, Swan

Rasta: What type of numbers do you expect El Gary to put up next year?

Paul Sporer: .260-25

Make WAR not Love: wind supposed to blow out to left center tomorrow at 20mph. Tomlin is a flyball guy with a hr problem already. Do they consider a nearly full bullpen game? ie tomlin goes 2 or 3 innings max.

Paul Sporer: I think they trust him a lot more than us in the general public do.

Paul Sporer: We’ll see how it goes

Paul Sporer: Definitely easy to see how it goes disastrously, but it wouldn’t be the first time where a HR pitcher was facing a huge wind blowing out and survived

Rasta: Most important question of the chat: which version of next year’s MLB The Show are you getting? Digital Deluxe edition?

Paul Sporer: Yes whatever the best digital version is!

Paul Sporer: Really geeked that Griffey got the cover. That means he’s definitely gonna be in the game and I’m just so psyched to see how they improve on this year’s great game (which I’m still playing — and will be streaming tonight at twitch.tv/psporer24)

Rasta: Who gets paid more in free agency? Chapman & Jansen or Cespedes?

Paul Sporer: Ooh good one

Paul Sporer: I’m a scrub at guessing contracts, but I’ll say Yo

Make WAR not Love: are you chatting tomorrow night with eno during the game?

Paul Sporer: I am not

Dave: If the 12 team draft you were just in had continued beyond six rounds, where does Alex Bregman go?

Paul Sporer: 8-10 range prob. We’ll be doing a full one with that same crew in January

Make WAR not Love: Just wanted to say thanks for the great work this year. Really enjoy your work and definitely helps me dominate my fantasy leagues.

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much!

Dave: Thanks. See you in AZ next week.

Paul Sporer: No problem, see you sooooon

Paul Sporer: OK, y’all

Paul Sporer: thanks for coming by

Paul Sporer: time for podcasting

Paul Sporer: and next week — BIG NEWS