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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 401 – Live from Arizona!!

11/04/16

I’m still on the road so I won’t be able to do a full rundown with topics and time tags, but I’ll try to get it updated on Sunday the 6th.

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live… and so are we!!!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Strategy Section: NFBC Draft

  • We discuss a bunch of players!

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Top 15 First Basemen for 2017 – First Run

Last month, I put up my early pitcher rankings and I’m going to go position-by-position along with Brad’s “Way Too Early” series starting with first basemen. I’ll circle back to catchers at the end since he already did his two weeks ago. I usually put my initial lists together in preparation for my trip to First Pitch Arizona coming up later this week where I compete in the first half of a 50-round draft and hold NFBC league. Jason and I will actually be doing a live episode of the podcast at the same time of the draft this year so I won’t be able to participate, but I’ll share my first run of rankings instead.

(I’m including a couple DHs because there aren’t enough DH-only guys for their own set of rankings unlike 2016)

Paul Goldschmidt | Diamondbacks – He’s still the best of the bunch as one of the few 5-category first basemen in the game. His career-high 32 SBs this year gave him his fourth season of at least 15 SBs in the last five. It likely would’ve been 5-for-5 had he not missed the last two months of 2014 with injury. Goldy was hitting .223 through the first 40 games of this season, but no one seemed to bat an eye as it was tied to an uncharacteristically low BABIP of just .258, nearly 100 points lower than his .356 career mark.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – November 2nd, 2016

Chat moved up to today! We’ll start around 2 PM Central.

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Three Hitters I’m Eager to See at the AFL

The end of the MLB season is one of the worst parts of the year. I annually lessen the pain of this by journeying out to First Pitch Arizona for my last fill of baseball before long, stupid winter. Not only are we watching baseball, but it’s centered around a fantasy baseball conference with some of the best people in the industry… and me. I’m leaving Thursday morning so I’ll be there in time for one of the afternoon games which means with the three attendee games already on the docket, I’ll see a total of four regular games in addition to the Fall Stars Game on Saturday night.

My favorite aspect of the Fall League is learning about guys I’m not too familiar with just yet. Don’t get me wrong, it’s awesome seeing the Mike Trouts and Bryce Harpers of the prospect world. But for someone who doesn’t dedicate a ton of time to prospects (especially lower level ones), it’s a great opportunity to see some of the next level guys in living color. Keep in mind that any time I say I “discovered” someone at the AFL whether on the pod or in a piece, I mean for myself, not that I was on this guy ahead of everyone else.

For example, Baseball Prospectus ranked Nolan Arenado 20th ahead of the 2011 season, but I knew next-to-nothing about the 20-year old going into his High-A season. Watching obliterate the Fall League later that year put him on my radar. He was so good. I didn’t see a single bad at-bat from him in the handful of games, even the outs. Better examples would be Brian Dozier and Mookie Betts.

Neither were on prospect lists in advance of their AFL season so seeing them excel actually gave me a jump in my fantasy leagues. Don’t get me wrong, not everyone I fall for out there winds up being a stud. I loved what I saw out of Chris Heisey, Grant Desme, and Dustin Ackley to name a few. Two are fourth outfielders and the other – Desme – quit baseball to become a priest. You win some, you lose some.

One guaranteed win is watching baseball in Arizona in early November when most of the country is whipping out their jackets. (I mean, I take my jacket to Arizona because that shiz gets really cold at night! But during the day it’s sunny and awesome.)

I’ve got a shortlist of guys I’m looking forward to seeing out there this week and I should get a chance to see them all, even if it’s only at the Fall Stars game:

Gleyber Torres – NYY – SS

The key piece of the Aroldis Chapman is lighting up the league so far with a 1.077 OPS in 32 AB, good for 4th in the league. Before we go any further, I’ll note that the AFL is a hitting league due to not only the environment and ballparks, but also the talent distribution. There are often many more top hitting prospects than pitching ones. Pitchers have usually bumped up against the inning caps by season’s end so we don’t always get the cream of the crop.

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You Should Take Miguel Cabrera in the First Round

I’m not sure we think about first round picks properly in fantasy baseball. I think too often we worry too much about if the player selected will “return first round value” which means being a top 10, 12, 15 player (or however many teams are in the league, of course). The BaseballHQ Forecaster reviews first round picks every year and compares them to those who finished as first rounders by dollar value and it shows we are terrible at actually picking first rounders in the first round. Their look at the last 12 years showed a 34% success rate.

I look for more of a balance between upside and floor with my first round pick. Make no mistake, we’re talking very high floors here. I’m not going to take Kyle Seager in the first round just because he has established a strong floor of quality play, but I’m careful not to overvalue nebulous upside while eschewing a “boring” pick just because I have a reasonable idea of what to expect from him. It’s not so much “will this guy blossom into a first round stud”, but more “will he be a centerpiece asset (top 35 or so) with a reasonable shot at first round production” which brings us to Miguel Cabrera.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 400 – Schwarber in the Outfield

10/27/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Strategy Section: World Series Chatter

  • CHC gets split in CLE (50:40)
  • Front-door sinkers (52:00)
  • CLE going 3-man rotation (56:00)

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – October 27th, 2016

Chat transcript found below! Join us next week for my first offseason chat!!

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Five Relievers Who Could Close in 2017

Relievers are having a moment. It’s been slowly building for a while, but this year might be the crescendo. Zach Britton foolishly being left out of the wildcard game paired with Cleveland’s excellent deployment of Andrew Miller seems to have ignited something of a reliever revolution. Their importance – especially in the playoffs – has never been questioned, but the prevalence of lockdown relievers throughout many bullpens has changed their value in fantasy leagues, too.

Saves still run the show, but many leagues have incorporated holds as a way of adding value to studly middle relievers and some are just so good that it doesn’t matter if they’re getting saves. Eight relievers logged 100+ strikeouts and only Kenley Jansen was a full-time closer. Seung Hwan Oh had 19, Ken Giles had 15, both Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller had 12, while Kyle Barraclough and Brad Hand combined for one (it was Hand’s).

Today, I have five high upside relievers who could be closing in 2017 or be so good that they’re useful enough without saves. They are listed in order of likeliness to close:

Adam Ottavino

OK, we’re cheating right out of the gate a little bit. Ottavino was just starting to close for Colorado when he was felled by Tommy John surgery in 2015 and he reassumed the role in September of this season after a couple months in a setup role. He finished with the role and will likely start with it again in 2017 while the others on this list will likely need to leapfrog a guy or three to get there.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 399 – World Series Preview

10/23/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

  • In your opinion, is CLE’s layoff a factor?
    • Layoffs over last 10 years

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Tale of the Tape

  • SP
  • RP
  • Hitting/Bench
  • Picks

Stat of the Day: Cubs allowed the 4th-most SBs with just a 22% CS rate (lg. avg. is 29%)

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The Home Run Surge by Position (3B and OF)

Wrapping up my position-by-position look at the 2016 power surge, we hit third base and outfield today. If you missed the first two pieces, here are the catcher/first base and second base/shortstop ones.

THIRD BASE

The hot corner didn’t set any records with its power output in 2016, but the 17 hitters who popped at least 20 homers tied for the third highest ever. The previous highs had a Giants-like even year pattern with 2004 (17), 2006 (21), and 2008 (18) being the other three seasons with at least 17 hitters achieving the feat. Homers have been on the rise at third base the last three years with just eight reaching 20+ HR in 2014 and then 15 last year.

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